NCS’s knowledge skilled Harry Enten has made a dire prediction for the field workplace success of the self-importance documentary Melania.
Melania is having a MAGA premiere on the Kennedy Centre this Thursday, earlier than opening in cinemas worldwide from Friday, together with in over 1,500 theaters throughout the U.S.
Donald Trump, who is usually verbose on Truth Social, managed to name the documentary on his spouse a “MUST WATCH” and claimed it was “Selling out, FAST!”
U.S. President Donald Trump and first woman Melania Trump arrive for a New Year’s Eve occasion at his Mar-a-Lago residence on December 31, 2025 in Palm Beach, Florida. / Joe Raedle / Getty Images
The 79-year-old reportedly noticed the documentary for the primary time on a non-public screening on Saturday night at a makeshift cinema arrange on the White House. Billionaires together with Apple CEO Tim Cook watched the movie simply hours after ICU nurse Alex Pretti was shot useless by federal brokers in Minnesota.
Speaking on Erin Burnett OutFront on Tuesday, Enten stated Melania at present had a 63 % likelihood of getting a dismal score of beneath 20 % on film score web site Rotten Tomatoes.
The web site aggregates evaluations of recent movies-if it will get over 60 % constructive evaluations it’s thought-about “fresh”, something much less is taken into account “rotten.” Critical evaluations of the documentary have but to be seen.
Enten stated the beneath 20 % rating in line with prediction market odds was “not good” and stated the documentary had been predicted to take between $1 million and $5 million within the opening weekend field workplace.
NCS knowledge guru Harry Enten shares a prediction of Melania’s Rotten Tomatoes score. / display shot
“Not so great,” Enten stated. He in contrast it to Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11 which had the highest-grossing opening weekend for a documentary in U.S. historical past, making $23.9 million 2004, which Enten stated was $41 million now, accounting for inflation.
“Melania is not anywhere close,” he stated of the movie, whose director Brett Ratner has been banished from Hollywood after being accused of sexual assault in 2017, claims he has denied.
NCS additionally mentioned the funds for Melania, which was funded by Amazon. The $75 million price ticket consists of $40 million to buy the rights to the documentary and an extra $35 million spent on advertising and marketing prices.
Picture taken in Madrid on January 22, 2026 reveals an enormous promoting billboard for the documentary movie
“All of the promoting, all of that jazz to attempt to construct up that viewers, which proper now doesn‘t seem like they‘re rushing to actually see it,” Enten said.
The stats guru then pointed out that Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos “is doing quite well” under the Trump presidency, with his wealth rising by $35 billion since November 2024.
“I think there are some people who might see a connection between that and the money being spent [on Melania],” Enten claimed.
Amazon are releasing Melania worldwide on Friday, however the global demand for the documentary appears to be soft.
NCS’s Harry Enten posts Jeff Bezos’ net worth change since Trump’s second presidency. / screen grab
In London, one ticket has been sold at Vue cinema in Islington for the first 3:10 p.m screening on Friday, with two tickets booked for 6 p.m.
In Australia, one screening on Friday at Sydney’s Hoyts Warringah Mall has not bought one single ticket. At a cinema in Cronulla, one particular person goes in line with 9 News.
In the U.Ok. one movie business insider instructed The Guardian they believed “four-walling” was getting used, the place distributors pay every cinema who agrees to display a movie a set price.
The Hollywood Reporter stated the Kennedy Centre visitor listing for the premiere consists of actuality stars Todd and Julie Chrisley, whom Trump pardoned final 12 months after their conviction on costs of financial institution fraud and tax evasion.
Other company embody rapper Waka Flocka Flame, Dr. Oz, Dr. Phil, and former New York Mayor Eric Adams.
MAGA names expected to attend embody second cady Usha Vance, Trump’s Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Attorney General Pam Bondi, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and embattled Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.