NCS information analyst Harry Enten was shocked as he revealed that Democrats have flipped the GOP’s Trump-led redistricting battle of their favor.
The 37-year-old information guru defined how a number of states’ redistricting efforts might result in the Democrats probably gaining a number of new districts on Thursday’s NCS News Central.
“It started in Texas. It looked like Republicans, it was most likely that they were going to get, nationwide, five seats,” Enten mentioned to NCS News Central’s Kate Borduan.
“But today, at this point, the most likely outcome is Democrats actually gaining from the mid-decade redistricting battle,” he added with a flourish.
In August, Texas redrew its congressional map on the urging of the Trump administration, giving itself 5 extra Republican districts. Congressional maps are normally redrawn each ten years, coinciding with the U.S. Census’s assortment of inhabitants information.
Other states adopted swimsuit. Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina adjusted their maps to offer themselves a further Republican seat, whereas Florida is poised to vote on a brand new GOP-friendly map later this yr. Indiana notably resisted the Trump administration’s pressure to regulate its congressional map and provides Republicans a lift.
The GOP’s effort to redistrict its manner right into a House majority comes as polls and special elections counsel Democrats maintain the upperhand within the 2026 midterms.
But Democrats countered with redistricting efforts of their very own.
California notably handed Prop 50 in November 2025, giving the state 5 further Democratic districts. A Utah choose shot down the state’s all-red map in November, giving Democrats one other blue seat there.
Virginia, Maryland, and New York might choose up extra blue seats as their legislatures hash out new maps.
The results of all these machinations is that the GOP’s post-Texas 5-seat acquire has fully evaporated, and now Democrats might need a small benefit heading into the 2026 midterms.
“The bottom line is this: it started out as a plus for Republicans, and now it looks like the Democrats have fought back and fought back in a major way,” exclaimed Enten. “It appears prefer it‘s going to be a plus for them nationwide.”
Enten stressed that Democrats’ new benefit isn’t large.
“I wouldn‘t be surprised if it‘s tied. I wouldn‘t be surprised if Democrats actually gain 2 or 3 seats from the mid-decade redistricting battle,” he said.
Still, he couldn’t comprise his shock that it received this shut in any respect.
“If you said to me last summer, Democrats are more likely to gain than Republicans, I wouldn‘t buy it,” he mentioned. “But again, as I said at the start, Donald Trump and the Republicans started this mid-decade redistricting war, but it looks like Democrats are going to finish him off.”
“I mean, just vibes from the summer when this all rolled out, you would not expect this,” commented Borduan.
“No, this is one of the biggest shockers in the last half year of electoral politics,” Enten concurred.