London
—
For Europe, Donald Trump’s return to the White House has been a bonfire of certainties. His administration’s menace to annex Greenland, an autonomous a part of Denmark, has plunged NATO into an unprecedented state of affairs: An alliance based mostly on collective protection – the place an assault on one is an assault on all – now faces the prospect that one member may assault one other.
The White House mentioned Tuesday that the president is “discussing a range of options” to purchase Greenland, making clear that utilizing the US navy is not off the table. Proclaiming the return to a world through which the robust take what they’ll and the weak endure what they need to, Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of workers, advised NCS: “We’re a superpower, and … we’re going to conduct ourselves as a superpower.”
Although Secretary of State Marco Rubio has tried to downplay issues about a navy intervention, saying as a substitute that the Trump administration is contemplating shopping for Greenland, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has sounded the alarm: “If the US chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops, including NATO and thus the security that has been established since the end of the Second World War.”
But different European leaders have held their tongues, a minimum of in public, for an uncomfortable cause: The US might not be a dependable ally of Europe, however for now it stays a vital one. With Europe needing US navy and diplomatic assist to rebuff Russia, Trump’s renewed threats towards Greenland have put it in a bind: how to maintain the US out of Greenland, however invested in Ukraine?
This stress was on show in Paris this week, when representatives from 35 nations, together with the US, mentioned how to assure Ukraine’s post-war safety within the occasion of a peace cope with Russia. Although the assembly went easily and led to concrete commitments, the bonhomie was strained by uncomfortable questions at a information convention concerning the concern hanging over the day’s diplomacy.
“I know there’s a reluctance to talk about Greenland today, but what value do these (US security) commitments have on the very day that, at the highest levels of government in Washington, they are talking about seizing the territory of a fellow NATO member?” a reporter requested Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Starmer prevaricated, pointing to an earlier statement of solidarity with Denmark. French President Emmanuel Macron dodged a related query. Standing subsequent to US particular envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, the leaders of Britain and France weren’t prepared to criticize the US for its threats towards Denmark, lest they jeopardize Washington’s involvement within the Ukraine peace course of.
Europe has already ceded loads of floor to maintain the US on-side. Its leaders have been berated by Vice President JD Vance in Munich, harangued by Elon Musk on-line, and accused within the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy of “tramp(ing) on basic principles of democracy” to suppress the “patriotic” events that Washington champions. The European Union additionally accepted a 15% tariff on its commerce with the US.
While many are calling for Europe to take a more durable stance towards the US, it lacks the leverage to achieve this, mentioned Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, a political danger consultancy.
“Many European leaders want to talk tough to America … They want to be able to stand up and call out what they’re seeing, but they’re simply not in a position to do so, because for a very long time, they’ve outsourced their security to America,” Rahman advised NCS.
As with final 12 months, the Europeans’ precedence for 2026 stays to maintain the US engaged in Ukraine, mentioned Rahman, even when this leads to placing stress on Copenhagen “to come to an accommodation” with the US over Greenland. “Fundamentally, I don’t think they have a choice, because the process to rearm in Europe is three to five years,” he added.
Because the Trump administration has not sought Congressional approval for brand spanking new US navy help to Ukraine, Europe has been funding Ukraine’s protection for greater than a 12 months. Nonetheless, whereas it builds up its personal protection industrial base, Europe stays closely depending on the US for the weapons it buys for Ukraine.
Although Europe is reliant on the US for navy {hardware} within the quick time period, Daniel Fried, a veteran US diplomat, advised NCS that the continent has extra leverage than is usually believed.
“There are plenty of areas in which European defense suppliers are competitive with the Americans. We’re not the only ones who make fighter aircraft,” mentioned Fried, who served as assistant secretary of state for Europe beneath Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. “(The) Europeans might just decide that the cutting-edge technology in drones is something (they’re) not going to share with the Americans if they keep this up.”
Some in Europe have known as for extra dramatic, rapid actions. Raphael Glucksmann, a French member of the European Parliament, known as for the EU to set up a everlasting navy base in Greenland, which he mentioned would “send a strong signal to Trump and counter the American argument that we are incapable of ensuring Greenland’s security.”
But Majda Ruge, a senior coverage fellow on the European Council on Foreign Relations, mentioned the objective shouldn’t be a “military showdown with the United States, but to raise the political, economic, and alliance costs of unilateral US action early and visibly, as to convince President Trump not to act,” including there are “non-military ways of doing so.”
“It’s about making sure that if Trump chooses to escalate, he has to openly shove European allies out of the way rather than act in a political vacuum. And doing so would sharply raise the domestic and political costs for him,” Ruge advised NCS.
US residents overwhelmingly oppose utilizing navy pressure to take management of Greenland, in accordance to a YouGov ballot from August, taken after Denmark summoned the US envoy over a report that a variety of American males had been participating in covert campaigns to affect Greenlandic politics. Just 7% of US adults mentioned they supported utilizing pressure to annex Greenland, with 72% opposed.
Trump’s preliminary rise to energy in 2016 was aided by his longheld opposition of the 2003 invasion of Iraq and different pricey “forever wars.” Yet the president advised The New York Times on Wednesday that US oversight of Venezuela may final for years, following its toppling of the nation’s authoritarian chief, Nicolás Maduro.
It will not be clear how responsive the Trump administration will likely be to criticism at house or overseas. Miller this week heaped scorn on “international niceties,” telling NCS: “We live … in the real world … that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power. These are the iron laws of the world that have existed since the beginning of time.”
Although Europe hopes that Trump’s curiosity in Greenland might subside, as occurred final 12 months, officers in London and Brussels worry this time could also be completely different.
“People have woken up to the fact that this isn’t some dream he’s come up with. He is deadly serious about this,” a British lawmaker advised NCS, talking on the situation of anonymity.
Rahman, of the Eurasia Group, mentioned: “I don’t suppose there’s any naivety – not in Berlin, not in Paris, not in London – concerning the nature of the US regime … The Americans know the Europeans are weak. Predators prey on the weak – that’s what the Trump administration is doing. There’s not a lot the Europeans can do.
“For many countries, it’s about buying time. This is a bridge. Until Europe can defend itself, they’ve got to work with the Trump administration.”