The Republican plans to select off five Democratic-held congressional seats in Texas as soon as appeared like a certain factor. Not anymore.
President Donald Trump’s flagging approval scores, notably amongst Latinos, and robust Democratic efficiency on this yr’s particular elections have modified each events’ assumptions. Now, the cushion the Texas GOP drew into its new map – Trump gained each Republican-favored district by 10 factors or extra a yr in the past – appears like it is perhaps too small.
Democrats beat Trump’s 2024 ends in five US House districts with particular elections this yr by no less than 13 factors. Over-performance at that degree subsequent yr would flip three of the five new Texas seats to the Democratic column, although it’s unlikely that efficiency will likely be replicated in each district across the nation, and up to date polling means that Democrats presently have a extra modest nationwide benefit.
“I can feel it on the ground,” mentioned Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, whose South Texas district was one of many five focused by Republicans. “I really anticipate us taking the majority back next cycle and winning back South Texas and places that had been traditional Democratic districts that have turned on us in the last few cycles, with so many disillusioned people.”
Republicans are nonetheless more likely to make general positive factors within the nationwide redistricting battle with the assistance of Texas, North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio, even after Indiana’s Republican senators rejected new maps regardless of Trump’s stress. But shifting nationwide tendencies may change what each events anticipate to realize as they redraw their maps.
Trump improved Republicans’ standing with Latino voters in 2024, profitable about 46%, in line with 2024 exit polls, up from 32% in 2020. Texas’ new maps sought to construct on Trump’s robust efficiency within the state, which he gained by 14 factors. Notably, Trump gained each county within the closely Latino Rio Grande Valley, which was lengthy a Democratic stronghold.
Four of the five Democratic-held seats focused by the state GOP are majority Latino beneath the brand new maps, with the twenty eighth Congressional District, represented by longtime Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, topping out at over 90% Latino.
But Trump’s standing among Latinos has fallen dramatically nationwide for the reason that begin of his second time period, outpacing his drop in approval general. In three statewide races this November – a Democratic-backed poll measure in California and gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia – Democrats gained essentially the most in counties with larger shares of Latinos, even outpacing Joe Biden’s 2020 margins there.
And in Miami, a Democratic-backed candidate won the mayoral election earlier this month, breaking practically 30 years of Republican-aligned management of the nonpartisan seat.
In Texas, Trump’s approval score amongst Latinos dropped from 44% in February to 32% in October, in line with the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll. The 2025 UH-TSU Texas Trends Survey discovered Latinos in Texas expressing remorse for their 2024 vote at larger charges than Texan voters general. When requested how they would have voted within the 2024 presidential election if they may vote once more, Texan Latinos backed Democrat Kamala Harris by a margin of 11 factors, a 19-point swing from the 8-point margin by which the identical group mentioned they supported Trump in 2024.
Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist and founding father of Solidarity Strategies, informed NCS that he thought Latinos may swing again to Democrats subsequent yr by a five- to 20-point margin.
“I think they’re all going to snap back,” Rocha mentioned. “It’s just, do they get back to the norms of where it was before Trump?”
Gonzalez informed NCS that he’s been seeing that discontent amongst his personal constituents previously yr. His new district is greater than three-quarters Latino.
Gonzalez highlighted that affordability is the highest subject in his district, together with a scarcity of labor and an elevated presence of immigration officers on the bottom.
“I don’t think Democrats, and especially Latinos, who voted for Trump ever expected that this would happen,” Gonzalez later mentioned. “And now it has, and it’s compounded – that is compounded with a lot of the other problems that we’re talking about, economic problems and inflation and people, the American people, are continuing to struggle.”
A giant swing amongst Texas Latinos may put the GOP-held fifteenth Congressional District in play too. Currently held by Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, the fifteenth District voted comfortably for Trump in 2024 (he gained by 18 factors beneath 2026 traces), however his margin was significantly extra modest in 2020 (2 factors). Democratic candidate Beto O’Rourke gained the district by 11 factors in his 2018 US Senate run. De La Cruz’s electoral margins barely change beneath the brand new map.
Patrick Ruffini, pollster and founding companion at Republican agency Echelon Insights, argued earlier than final yr’s presidential election that Trump may lead a realignment to deliver many Latinos right into a GOP coalition targeted on working-class points.
“These are the most important voters to cultivate because they are the swingiest,” Ruffini informed NCS concerning the Latino vote. “Without them … it’s kind of very hard for Democrats to have long-term success in presidential elections. I think that should absolutely be more of a focus for the administration and for the Republicans heading into the midterms.”
South Texas is residence to a extra conservative inhabitants intimately accustomed to the border, Ruffini mentioned. But Rocha believes even only a slight change within the voting habits of Latinos in rural areas may flip districts on the sting.
Democrats notched robust performances within the five particular elections for US House this yr, over-performing 2024 presidential margins by no less than 13 factors in every race and averaging a 17-point enchancment general.
Special elections are usually lower-turnout occasions, and sometimes, solely essentially the most partisan and extremely engaged voters take part. But an early December particular election in Tennessee’s seventh congressional district featured turnout roughly on par with that of the 2022 midterm election. Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn misplaced that race by 9 factors, trimming Trump’s 22-point margin within the district by 13 factors.
In NCS’s newest ballot, registered voters most well-liked Democratic over Republican candidates of their House district by 5 factors (that’s roughly a 7-point enchancment in contrast with 2024). Democratic candidates may find yourself with a bigger margin amongst voters who really prove given the rising proof of Democratic advantage in voter motivation.
“Affordability is really the front and center issue right now. I think that’s really the primary concern and the primary component of this,” Ruffini informed NCS. “I think that Donald Trump doesn’t need to convince people that he feels their pain, but I think he does need to make the case that Democrats are too weak to fix it.”