The Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has proven how simple it’s to for one nation to show geography into a ferocious weapon with devastating world impacts. It additionally reveals a fact about the risks of a fossil fuel-powered world power system: It’s closely reliant on a handful of slim maritime chokepoints, all in risky areas.
The Strait is a slim passage of deep, dark-blue water that tracks alongside Iran’s arid, mountainous southern shoreline and transports spherical a fifth of world’s oil and gas.
The impacts of its efficient closure have unfolded swiftly, sending power costs hovering and shockwaves by means of the global economy. It’s led to gas shortages and rationing and fears of a world recession.
But if the world power system had been powered primarily by wind, solar and batteries, quite than oil and gas, would a comparable warfare set off the identical ranges of disruption?
Experts say there’s a key distinction between the two: Fossil fuels rely on steady shipments of oil and gas; any disruption cuts off power provide instantly. In distinction, clear power provide chains are centered on the transportation of kit — not the power itself.
Relying on imported oil “is like relying on a drug dealer — you have to keep going back again and again,” mentioned Li Shuo, director of the China local weather hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “Importing solar panels is more like relying on a car dealer: once you’ve made the purchase, you’re set for the next two decades.”
The query of how a world run on renewables could possibly be totally different occupies Clement Sefa-Nyarko, a lecturer at the African Leadership Centre at King’s College London, who focuses on pure sources. To perceive these variations means understanding how the present world power system is structured, he mentioned.
The Strait of Hormuz, the most important export route for oil produced by Gulf states, is arguably the most important hall for oil and gas as a result of few alternate options exist. The world is “80% dependent on fossil fuel, about 25% of that passes through a single chokepoint, and that is a problem,” Sefa-Nyarko mentioned.
But Hormuz shouldn’t be the solely bottleneck. As the Middle East battle escalates, there are fears for an additional, this one in the Red Sea.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which hyperlinks the Suez Canal and Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, transports around 6% of the world’s sea-borne traded oil and has lengthy been unstable. A wave of assaults in 2023 by Iran-backed Houthi militants compelled ships to re-route round South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. Now, considerations are rising Houthis may seek to block off access once more.
Other slim sea corridors aren’t affected by the Middle East battle however nonetheless face dangers. The Strait of Malacca, a slim passage linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans, is the largest chokepoint in the world by way of maritime oil transport and is understood for piracy and theft. Incidents of each reached a 19-year excessive in 2025, with greater than 130 circumstances reported, in response to a report by ReCAAP Information Sharing Centre.
Independent analysis firm Rystad recognized a whole of 5 oil and gas chokepoints — which additionally embrace the Turkish Straits and the Cape of Good Hope — which it referred to as the “fragile lifelines” of the world power system, in a 2025 report.
Disruption of any of those leaves the world exceptionally susceptible. Countries that import oil and gas are “very much reliant on a continuous flow of energy,” mentioned Vegard Wiik Vollset, head of renewables and energy analysis at Rystad. When that’s disrupted provide chains can shatter, costs soar and individuals face deep financial ache.
Clean power, nevertheless, works very in a different way.
The huge distinction is the place power comes from, Sefa-Nyarko mentioned. With renewables, as soon as the infrastructure is constructed — photo voltaic farms arrange and wind generators hoisted into place — all that’s required is solar or wind, and that’s home.
Once put in, it will probably present power for many years. If the identical warfare broke out in a world dominated by wind and photo voltaic, electrical energy manufacturing would largely be insulated, mentioned Sefa-Nyarko. Electric automobile drivers wouldn’t concern hovering gas pump costs, houses fitted with warmth pumps and electrical stoves wouldn’t see power invoice spikes and governments could be much less exposed to hovering inflation and the have to ration or subsidize fuels.
“An electrified grid is inherently more resilient,” mentioned Antoine Vagneur-Jones, head of commerce and provide chains at analysis group BloombergNEF.
That’s to not say there aren’t some clear power chokepoints; they’re simply totally different and much less more likely to set off quick financial shocks, Sefa-Nyarko mentioned.
Solar panels, wind generators and batteries want key minerals corresponding to cobalt, lithium, graphite and uncommon earth parts. And whereas these don’t should move by means of a handful of slim delivery channels, there’s one nation with a close to stranglehold on the provide chain: China.
China mines a lot of minerals, however its actual dominance is in processing. Lithium for batteries, for instance, is mined throughout the world — together with Australia, Chile, China and Zimbabwe — however greater than 70% of the processing occurs in China. The Democratic Republic of Congo has round 70% of the world’s deposits of cobalt, utilized in batteries and wind turbine magnets, however China processes about 80%.
It has additionally cornered the world clear tech market. “China has the cheapest product and the most advanced technology,” mentioned Yana Hryshko, a senior analysis analyst at power agency Wood Mackenzie. It produces greater than 90% of the world’s polysilicon, wafers and photovoltaic cells — key elements to make photo voltaic panels.
And China isn’t afraid to flex its dominance. When the US threatened tariffs in 2025, China, which mines round 60% of uncommon earths and processes 90%, slapped export restrictions on lots of them. “The US immediately had to come back to the negotiation table,” mentioned Sefa-Nyarko.
Yet, even when China severely restricted exports, it might not produce the identical excessive world shock and affect on costs as strangling oil and gas, as a result of it gained’t reduce off the day by day circulation of power provide, mentioned Rystad’s Vollset.
It may finally have an effect on is nations’ means to construct extra infrastructure, which may show damaging in the longer-term if restrictions are extended and nations don’t pivot and construct up their very own manufacturing. “There will be a point where supply will be disrupted, even if you can absorb that, maybe for a year, two years, you can’t go far beyond that,” mentioned Sefa-Nyarko.
Efforts are already underway to construct extra resilient provide chains for essential supplies, that are additionally essential for protection and electronics. Countries together with the US and India are beginning to construct their very own photo voltaic manufacturing industries, though China’s merchandise stay the least expensive; a recent IEA report discovered photo voltaic prices in China are 10% decrease than in India, 20% decrease than in the United States, and 35% decrease than in Europe.
Other efforts embrace recycling minerals already in circulation and growing various applied sciences to cut back essential mineral reliance, corresponding to sodium batteries, which don’t require lithium.
It’s too quickly to know whether or not the present battle will push extra nations to double down on renewables and electrification, however Vagneur-Jones expects extra will. “We typically see things continue to accelerate and expand in the pace of deployment” in the years following the shock, he mentioned.
There is not any good world power answer devoid of chokepoints, vulnerabilities and geopolitical tensions, Sefa-Nyarko mentioned. “We cannot delude in ourselves and think that renewables will be the silver bullet,” he added. But the present disaster shines a large highlight on the fragility of an financial system the place world stability is inherently tied to the uninterrupted circulation of oil.