Even as US President Donald Trump has declared the “war has been won” with Iran, amphibious warships, touchdown craft and hundreds of Marines and sailors are being deployed to the area.
The deployment has induced hypothesis to swirl over whether or not the US plans to seize Kharg Island, a coral outcrop off Iran’s coast and an financial lifeline for Tehran that handles roughly 90% of the nation’s crude oil exports.
Even if Washington efficiently took the tiny however strategic island, specialists have questioned whether or not this would give the US sufficient leverage to drive Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid a spiraling world vitality disaster.
Here’s what we learn about the potential floor operation, and its dangers.
What is Kharg Island?
Kharg Island is a five-mile stretch of land off the Iranian coast round a third of the measurement of Manhattan, described by US officers as the “nexus for all the Iranian oil supply.”
Its lengthy jetties jutt into waters which are deep sufficient to accommodate oil supertankers, making the island a vital website for oil distribution.
The island has lengthy been key to Iran’s financial system. A declassified CIA doc from 1984 printed on-line mentioned the services are “the most vital in Iran’s oil system, and their continued operation is essential to Iran’s economic well-being.”
Alternative export routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz exist, however they’re restricted and haven’t been robustly examined on a giant scale, in response to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
For instance, in 2021, Iran inaugurated the Jask oil terminal, permitting crude oil to be transported to Jask on the Gulf of Oman simply east of the strait, however the terminal will not be thought-about a viable export choice for Iranian crude, the IEA mentioned.
Storage capability on Kharg is estimated at roughly 30 million barrels and, in response to commerce intelligence agency Kpler, about 18 million barrels of crude are at present saved there, Reuters reported.
Earlier this month, Israeli opposition chief Yair Lapid mentioned destroying the terminal would “cripple Iran’s economy and topple the regime.” He declared that Israel “must destroy all of Iran’s oil fields and energy industry on Kharg Island.”
Two Marine Expeditionary Units (MEU), which concentrate on rapid-response amphibious landings, raids and assault missions from Navy amphibious ships, have just lately deployed to the Middle East.
Previous navy workouts involving MEU have seen the spectacle of assault helicopters in the skies, troops on the seaside and large assault ships in the water.
James Stavridis, NATO’s former supreme allied commander, mentioned Tuesday the ships of a MEU “pack a lot of combat capability.”
But he cautioned that earlier than any floor operation, they would should move by way of the Strait of Hormuz and to the northern a part of the gulf, contending with Iranian drones, ballistic missiles and mines in the waterway, Stavridis wrote in a Bloomberg article.
“Once in position off Kharg, the Marines would need ironclad air and sea superiority over at least 100 miles around the island,” Stavridis mentioned.
One vital threat is that Iran might strike the amphibious ships. Another concern is the destiny of the island’s inhabitants – estimated to be in the hundreds and virtually all oil staff – who would have to be “contained” or evacuated, Stavridis added.
Stavridis additionally questioned the strategic leverage that such an operation would give Washington. “If the idea is to then bargain with Tehran for an opening of the Strait of Hormuz, it is unclear that the remaining leaders of the regime would be cowed by the threat of losing Kharg,” Stavridis mentioned.
“They might balk at agreeing to give up anything for Kharg,” he added.
Alongside potential US casualties, Richard Haass, former president of the Council on Foreign Relations suppose tank, mentioned final week any mission on Kharg would doubtless “further erode US missile stockpiles.”
The actual cause why the US is weighing seizing Kharg is unclear, however Haass mentioned it would “likely be seen by many there and around the world as a US attempt to seize Iranian oil,” he wrote on his Substack page.
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf mentioned on Wednesday that “Iran’s enemies, with the support of one of the regional countries” are making ready to occupy one in every of the nation’s islands, with out directing naming the island.
“All enemy movements are under the full surveillance of our armed forces. If they step out of line, all the vital infrastructure of that regional country will, without restriction, become the target of relentless attacks,” Ghalibaf posted on X on Wednesday.
Earlier Wednesday, Ghalibaf mentioned, “We are closely monitoring all US movements in the region, especially troop deployments.”
Iran has been laying traps and transferring extra navy personnel and air defenses to Kharg Island in latest weeks in preparation for a doable US operation to take management of the island, in response to a number of folks accustomed to US intelligence reporting on the difficulty.
The island already has layered defenses, and the Iranians have moved extra shoulder-fired, surface-to-air guided missile methods often called MANPADs there in latest weeks, the sources mentioned.
Iran has additionally been laying traps together with anti-personnel and anti-armor mines round the island, the sources mentioned, together with on the shoreline.
Has the US attacked the island earlier than?
Yes. Earlier this month, Trump mentioned the US had bombed “every military target” on the island and threatened to assault its oil infrastructure if Iran continued blocking ships from traversing the Strait of Hormuz.
Video posted to Truth Social and geolocated by NCS confirmed US strikes on the island’s airport services, with giant explosions and black smoke seen all through the footage.
Trump mentioned on the similar day that Kharg was “not high on the list, but it’s one of so many different things, and I can change my mind in seconds.”
But way back to 1988, many years earlier than he was elected, Trump has talked about invading the island.
“One bullet shot at one of our men or ships and I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it,” he advised The Guardian in an interview at the time.
White House officers consider taking Kharg Island would “totally bankrupt” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in response to one official, and will doubtlessly result in a swift finish of the warfare.
But many inside the administration are cautious of such a transfer, notably given it would require a vital variety of floor troops to realize.
Gulf allies are privately urging the Trump administration in opposition to prolonging the warfare by placing boots on the floor to occupy Kharg Island, a senior gulf official mentioned.
The concern is that occupying the island with US troops would lead to excessive casualties, doubtless triggering Iranian retaliation in opposition to gulf international locations’ infrastructure and prolonging the battle, the senior gulf official mentioned.
Iranian officers have warned as a lot.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy chief, Alireza Tangsiri – who Israel claimed to have killed on Thursday – mentioned final November that Iran’s islands throughout the Persian Gulf are “fortified strongholds.”
“If an enemy makes a mistake, it will receive a decisive response there,” Tangsiri mentioned.