Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton will advance to a May 26 runoff in the state’s Republican primary for US Senate, NCS’s Decision Desk projects, extending an costly and divisive conflict that has drawn vast nationwide consideration.
As he seeks a fifth time period in the Senate, Cornyn is dealing with the best stress of his political profession over his standing in the GOP and his perceived loyalty to President Donald Trump. Paxton’s checkered private historical past presents its personal issues.
Neither Cornyn nor Paxton will surpass the 50 p.c wanted in Tuesday’s main to keep away from a runoff. US Rep. Wesley Hunt, who launched a Senate bid in October, will not advance.
Trump didn’t endorse a candidate prior to Tuesday’s main. The president’s potential alternative might be decisive in a runoff, with allies of each candidates anticipated to push the White House to restrict harm to the eventual nominee as Democrats nationwide see a surge of enthusiasm.
And whereas Democrats haven’t received a statewide race in Texas because the Nineties, the celebration is emboldened heading into this fall’s midterms, having already flipped a longtime GOP-held state Senate seat in Fort Worth this yr.
Cornyn is a conservative with a lengthy historical past in Texas Republican politics, serving on the state Supreme Court and because the state’s lawyer basic earlier than his election to the Senate in 2002. He beforehand served because the Senate Republican whip and misplaced a bid for the highest Senate management place in 2024 to Sen. John Thune of South Dakota.
But his relationship with President Donald Trump has been fractious at occasions. Notably, he criticized the president’s actions on January 6, 2021, calling Trump’s language across the riot “reckless.”
He has additionally fended off criticism from many state Republicans for his work with Democrats. He was booed at a Texas GOP conference in 2022 for his position in negotiating a gun security package deal. Trump known as him a “RINO” – a “Republican in name only” – on Truth Social.
In 2023, Trump predicted Cornyn would lose his subsequent reelection marketing campaign, linking him to somebody way more crucial of the president in public.
“Who is a worse Senator, John ‘The Stiff’ Cornyn of Texas, or Mitt ‘The Loser’ Romney of Massachusetts (Utah?)?” Trump wrote then on social media. “They are both weak, ineffective, and very bad for the Republican Party, and our Nation. With even modestly skilled opposition, they’ll lose their next Election.”
Romney declined to search reelection in 2024. Cornyn pushed ahead.
Many nationwide Republicans and allies of Thune imagine Cornyn is their most secure wager on retaining the Senate seat in reliably crimson Texas. But Paxton, the three-term state lawyer basic, has a file of backing Trump – notably on his debunked claims of election fraud that preceded January 6 – and robust ties to the state Republican grassroots. Turning Point Action, an affiliate of the group co-founded by Charlie Kirk, endorsed Paxton in the first.
Paxton launched his marketing campaign final April after years of open feuding with Cornyn. He has linked Cornyn to the “DC establishment” and promoted investigations his workplace launched in opposition to a improvement related to a Dallas-area mosque, advocates for immigrants, and organizations with alleged ties to China’s Communist Party.
He and Hunt each ran arduous in opposition to the veteran incumbent and criticized Cornyn’s efforts at bipartisanship throughout former President Joe Biden’s administration.
“Trump is right: pro-amnesty John Cornyn is a weak RINO,” says an ad from one group opposing him.
Paxton has his personal baggage. He was impeached by the Texas House in a Republican-driven investigation over corruption allegations in 2023, adopted by an acquittal in the state Senate. He’s been the topic of a number of investigations over time with out dealing with felony expenses.
Paxton’s private life has offered extra fodder– his spouse, state Sen. Angela Paxton, introduced final July on social media that she had “filed for divorce on biblical grounds,” a remark shortly featured in outside group attack ads.
Cornyn has mentioned he will spend tens of tens of millions earlier than the May runoff to spotlight these scandals in hopes of driving down Paxton’s ballot numbers.
“After we get through with the attorney general” in a runoff, Cornyn told NCS recently, “he’s going to be unelectable.”
Hunt, in the meantime, had by no means received a statewide election in Texas and was rebuffed by nationwide celebration leaders anxious to keep away from a three-way main.
He told NCS final yr that Cornyn’s weak point with the Republican base and the issues about Paxton gave him a gap.
“The people of Texas are looking for an alternative, and it’s absolutely my job to give them one,” he mentioned then.