More than six weeks after he was introduced as their new supreme leader following the assassination of his father, Iranians have nonetheless not seen or heard Mojtaba Khamenei.
In the midst of a battle seen as posing an existential risk to the regime that has dominated their nation for almost half a century, Khamenei has been conspicuously absent. Instead, statements attributed to the 56-year-old cleric have been learn out on nationwide tv or posted on social media. The regime has even used AI-generated movies to present Khamenei delivering messages, fueling hypothesis that the new supreme leader is incapacitated or overseas.
It’s in stark distinction to his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was for many years the extremely seen face of Iranian decision-making. Under him, not every week handed and not using a speech, a ruling, a fastidiously timed intervention.
A supply told NCS last month that Khamenei had suffered a fractured foot, a bruised left eye and minor lacerations to his face in the identical wave of strikes that killed his father and Iran’s prime navy commanders.
Another report on Reuters cited unnamed sources as saying he is participating in conferences with senior officers through audio conferencing and is engaged in decision-making on main points together with the struggle and new negotiations with Washington.
Is Khamenei in the loop? Is he setting the parameters, drawing the crimson traces his negotiators want? Or is the workplace of the management functionally vacant, and if that’s the case, who’s calling the photographs?
Ali Vaez, Iran venture director at the International Crisis Group, says it seems that “Mojtaba is not in a state where he can actually make critical decisions or micromanage the talks,” however that “the system is using him to get final approval for key broad decisions and not (for) the tactics for the negotiations.”
“The system does deliberately highlight Mojtaba’s involvement because it provides a protective shield for that against internal criticism… unlike his father who would come out regularly and comment on the state of negotiations,” he added. “Mojtaba is missing in action, so attributing views to him is a good cover for Iranian negotiators to protect themselves from criticism.”
US President Donald Trump has boasted since the killing of the elder Khamenei that Iran has undergone regime change and described these now negotiating on behalf of Tehran as “reasonable.”
“We’re dealing with different people than anybody’s dealt with before,” he stated final month.
Iran’s opaque political system makes discovering solutions all the harder. But the longer Khamenei stays out of the public eye, the louder the questions will change into.
One survivor of the US-Israeli purge of Iran’s political and navy management was Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the nation’s long-serving parliament speaker, who led the first spherical of negotiations with the US in Islamabad.
The former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander – who was concerned in crushing pro-reform pupil protests – has emerged as considered one of Iran’s few politicians able to coping with each suit-wearing diplomats and troopers in battle fatigues.
Ghalibaf was joined in Islamabad by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and a big delegation of Iranian officers in what appeared to be a deliberate try to sign unity.
As they negotiate the regime’s survival overseas, at house they have to handle a base that has grown much more apprehensive about talks with the US and keen to preserve inflicting international ache as punishment for the assaults on Iran.
Ever since struggle broke out, the base has been rallying in the streets in a public show of assist for a regime dealing with an existential risk. But whilst these supporters sign unity, they’re scrutinizing each transfer by officers searching for to safe the regime’s survival.
“If negotiations were difficult before the conflict, they are now far more complex,” Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran skilled at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, wrote on X. “Iran is facing an increasingly decentralized, hardline, and ideologically rigid system, one that interprets its resilience in the conflict as a form of divine victory.”
US Vice President JD Vance stated after final week’s negotiations ended with no deal that the Iranian delegation had to return house for approval from both the supreme leader or “someone else.”
Until now, a deal and not using a supreme leader’s blessing was not a deal the Iranian physique politic may maintain collectively. However, Iran might have entered a new part the place the seen buy-in of the leader is now not required.
The supreme leader’s obvious absence has left Iran’s surviving politicians caught between two pressures – managing the fixed aftermath of Trump’s public commentary (which has proven detrimental to talks) and a hardline home base which views any compromise with the US as give up.
“Managing this is very difficult …it’s a sign of a real dilemma,” Hamidreza Azizi, visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told NCS’s Becky Anderson. “They need to walk a tightrope in balancing all those domestic and external pressures.”
This unofficial wartime association, which has elevated sure Iranian officers to positions of management, has left even the regime’s most loyal supporters confused over who is making selections.
Last week, when Foreign Minister Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz open for business transport, he got here below hearth from the regime’s supporters who accused him of preemptively handing Trump a chance to declare victory.
“Iranian society has been left in a state of confusion,” a well-liked state-affiliated outlet, Fars News, stated after Araghchi’s declaration. Another state-affiliated outlet stated the transfer “requires approval from the leadership, and it is necessary for officials to provide clarification on this matter.” Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian additionally drew opprobrium final month after apologizing to Arab neighbors and declaring there would be no extra assaults towards them.
Such media criticism has elevated hypothesis that there might be infighting amongst the politicians. But after Araghchi got here below assault, Ghalibaf delivered a nationwide handle to guarantee the inhabitants that there’s cohesion.
“This regime is not yet out of the woods,” Vaez stated. “It is a battle of survival to this day and at any point they could revert back to war, so they are not in a position to get into infighting.”
For now, Iran’s new supreme leader, a person used to working from the shadows, is serving a helpful goal for the nation’s veteran politicians.
“Attributing views to him even if he doesn’t necessarily agree with them is a good cover for Iranian negotiators to protect themselves against criticism,” Vaez stated. “There’s no countering from a man who is missing in action.”