The United States army was probably responsible for the strike on an elementary school in southern Iran that killed scores of kids, the deadliest incident of civilian casualties within the US and Israel’s virtually week-long war with Iran, in response to NCS and professional analysis of evidence.
Satellite imagery, geolocated movies, public statements from US officers and the evaluation of munitions specialists recommend that the Shajare Tayyiba elementary school in Minab was hit on February 28 at across the identical time as an assault that American forces probably carried out on a neighboring Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval base.
The White House has not dominated out that US army personnel carried out the strike that, in response to Iranian state media, killed at the very least 168 youngsters and 14 lecturers. An Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman stated at a briefing Friday that he was “not aware of any IDF activity in the area.” Both international locations burdened that they don’t goal civilians.
When assessing which army is responsible for a specific strike – in any battle – NCS typically obtains photos of the remnants of the weapons used within the assault and gives these to munitions specialists in order that their provenance might be assessed.
With Iran’s web blackout, photos and photographs from the bottom are restricted. NCS has not been in a position to study such proof on this case, so any evaluation can’t be conclusive.
New imagery suggests U.S. responsible for Iran school strike
However, different proof factors towards US accountability for the strike, which occurred Saturday morning – the primary day of the working and school week in Iran. Videos geolocated by NCS present that the school was struck at or across the identical time because the naval base, with one exhibiting smoke billowing each from the IRGC facility and the school constructing.
Satellite imagery from 2013 confirmed that the school and the IRGC base have been as soon as a part of the identical compound. But photos from 2016 revealed {that a} fence had been erected to separate the school from the remainder of the bottom, and {that a} separate entrance to the school had been constructed. In December 2025, imagery confirmed dozens of individuals within the school’s courtyard, apparently enjoying in what seems to be a court docket for ballgames.
N.R. Jenzen-Jones, a munitions professional and the director of Armament Research Services (ARES), instructed NCS that the satellite tv for pc imagery and movies “paint a picture of multiple simultaneous or near-simultaneous strikes” hitting each the IRGC compound and the school.
Initially, hypothesis swirled on-line that the blast on the school may have been brought on by misfiring Iranian air defenses, because the IRGC tried to repel incoming air strikes.
But Jenzen-Jones stated that clarification was unlikely, since latest imagery of the naval base confirmed the buildings had sustained important harm, suggesting they’d been struck with air-delivered precision-guided munitions, fairly than “air defense missiles that have gone awry.”
“We’re seeing targeted strikes that look like they’re intended to disable those buildings. That’s the most likely outcome,” he added.
Jenzen-Jones additionally stated that army bases such because the one at Minab would usually be among the many “pre-planned targets” to be struck within the opening exchanges of a battle.
US officers have confirmed that the US has struck army targets in southern Iran. In a briefing Wednesday, Gen. Dan Caine, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, introduced a map that plotted American and Israeli strikes on Iran over the primary 100 hours of the conflict. He stated Israel had principally struck northern Iran whereas the US had focused the south.
Caine stated that alongside Iran’s “southern axis,” the US has “continued to provide pressure from the sea, along the southeastern side of the coast, and has been attriting naval capability all along the Strait and up into the Arabian Gulf at a size and scale sufficiently to address the targets required.”
The probably clarification for the school strike, Jenzen-Jones stated, is that the US inadvertently struck the ability whereas it was finishing up the assault on the naval base, not realizing that the school was now not a part of the IRGC compound, or having didn’t replace its focusing on officers.
“It’s probably a targeting failure,” he stated. “Somewhere in the target cycle, an intelligence failure meant that the target set wasn’t updated, or a decision was made later in the cycle that resulted in the wrong target being hit.”
Asked for touch upon the incident, the US Defense Department referred NCS to Central Command (CENTCOM). NCS has requested CENTCOM for remark.
US officers have neither confirmed nor denied accountability. Central Command stated earlier that it was “aware of reports concerning civilian harm resulting from ongoing military operations” and was “looking into them.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated Wednesday that an investigation had been launched.
Although the probe is ongoing and a conclusion has not but been reached, Reuters reported Friday that US army investigators imagine it’s probably that US forces have been responsible for the strike on the school.
Volker Türk, the United Nations human rights chief, stated Friday that the UN has “significant concerns” about whether or not the strikes complied with worldwide humanitarian regulation.
Ravina Shamdasani, a UN spokeswoman, instructed NCS the strike “must not become just another horrific incident that leaves the headlines and is no longer a priority. There needs to be accountability.”