Mount Juliet, Tennessee
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Megan Schwalm is full of power. She sees the pleasure and ambition of each member of the espresso group she began three years in the past. Yet she is commonly afraid to belief what she sees and feels — afraid she might be let down once more.
“It’s a numbers game, right?” Schwalm stated earlier than a current assembly of her Liberal Ladies Social Group. “And so while there are moments of hope for me, there are often overwhelming moments of hopelessness as well.”
The supply of the competing hope and fear: a current House special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. The Democratic candidate lost by 9 points. A 12 months in the past, Republican Mark Green gained by 22 factors. (Green resigned his seat in July.)
“There was so much excitement,” Schwalm stated.
But the actuality of the place she lives is just not misplaced on her. “The numbers are the numbers. If we can keep closing that gap, that’s incredible. But gerrymandering makes it nearly impossible to win.”
Nearly not possible. It’s value remembering that. But the power amongst Democrats right here is palpable, and they’re vowing to do all they’ll to make Nashville and its suburbs a very unlikely 2026 midterm battleground.
“There’s something happening,” stated Lisa Quigley, who was chief of workers to the final Democrat to signify the Nashville space in the House. “And so as long as we are smart enough to put our best players on the field, I think we’re going to be able to take advantage of that. And I think that next November is going to be a big year for us.”
Quigley, too, is conscious of the daunting math.
The previous fifth Congressional District included all of Nashville and a few of its suburbs. It was represented by a Democrat for 148 years — from 1875 to 2023. But Republicans who now dominate state politics redrew the lines earlier than the 2022 midterms.
Nashville was carved into three districts that stretch from the metropolis into the suburbs and out to reliably Republican rural areas. Republicans gained the new fifth, sixth and seventh Congressional Districts simply in each 2022 and 2024. President Donald Trump’s 2024 margins had been lopsided: 18 factors in the fifth, 35 factors in the sixth, and 22 factors in the seventh.
“Not easy, but doable,” is nonetheless Quigley’s 2026 tackle flipping no less than two of these three House seats.
Conversations with Democrats right here simply after the particular election persuaded us so as to add a Tennessee go to to our “All Over the Map” challenge, an effort to trace main political developments by the eyes and experiences of voters. Democratic successes throughout 2025 give the occasion causes to be bullish heading into 2026. But Tennessee is ruby-red, and it might be extraordinary if the House seats that embody elements of Nashville are actually aggressive come subsequent fall.
Schwalm moved to Mount Juliet from Iowa simply as the new traces had been taking maintain. She’s 25 miles from Nashville, but it surely appears a lot farther.
“When you are here, it’s very clear you are in the Bible Belt,” Schwalm stated. “Beliefs are very different from beliefs in Nashville, and politically it’s very different going from Nashville to here.”
After her transfer, Schwalm determined to succeed in out to a handful of different liberals she had met, then began a Facebook web page.
“Within a matter of like two months, the group had grown to over 200 people online,” Schwalm stated. “Now we’re almost at 700, and we have a weekly coffee meeting where we come together just really to socialize. It’s really about building community because it’s very isolating here.”
Local faculty board fights over books and variety and insurance policies relating to transgender youngsters had been the group’s commonest shared curiosity at the starting. Over time, a few Republicans sad with the Trump and MAGA agenda joined the group. And now, the expertise of the particular House election has the ladies setting their sights on Washington.
The espresso group members all reside inside an hour of Nashville however are sprinkled throughout the three House districts. But even members who don’t reside in the seventh Congressional District helped in the particular election, writing postcards and becoming a member of telephone banks.
Aftyn Behn, a state legislator, was the Democratic candidate who misplaced by 9. She is progressive, and there may be some chatter right here that maybe a extra reasonable candidate may need fared even higher.
Just the point out of that speak brings a combine of groans and eye rolls at the liberal espresso group.
“We’ve been running moderates,” member Lindsey Patrick-Wright stated. “It doesn’t work and hasn’t gotten us anywhere.”
“I really believe the way we win is to run true liberal candidates and not ‘liberal lite’ as we like to do in Tennessee,” Schwalm stated. “I think the way we get younger folks to vote is by running candidates who understand the issues we are facing.”
But Schalm did qualify her remarks some.
She stated she believed Behn had confirmed herself worthy of one other shot at the seventh District. Schwalm lives in the sixth — the most Republican of the three districts that embody slices of Nashville. “We might not be able to run someone quite as liberal,” Schwalm stated of her residence district.
The Red Bicycle espresso store, the place the liberal group meets, is in the fifth District, which all agree is probably going the Democrats’ finest shot — although nonetheless tough.
About 40 p.c of the fifth District’s voters reside in Nashville, and the Republican incumbent, Rep. Andy Ogles, is a lightning rod. Ogles sponsored laws permitting Trump to run for a third time period. It is a nonstarter, however Democrats see it as a plus for his or her argument that Ogles is excessive.
Republican Matt Van Epps gained the particular election in the seventh District. Democrats hope a 12 months as an incumbent in Washington proves a drag when the midterm election comes subsequent November. The incumbent in the sixth District, Rep. John Rose, is working for Tennessee governor. But whereas Democrats promise to contest the seat, in addition they concede it’s much more of a long-shot than the different two.
Quigley labored for former Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper, a reasonable who represented Nashville for 20 years till the traces had been redrawn for the 2022 election. Her instincts and expertise inform her a reasonable has a higher shot in the suburbs and rural areas, however the pleasure for Behn’s candidacy in the particular election makes her surprise.
“She has a national fundraising base now,” Quigley stated of Behn. “She has a social media following. These are the things that you need in modern politics to be able to get the excitement and the interest of the voters to come out and cast their ballot for you.”
Now, given the power amongst Democrats, Quigley predicts crowded primaries for the Nashville-area House districts.
There are already a number of declared candidates in the fifth District. Quigley’s favourite is Chaz Molder, the mayor of Columbia, about 50 miles south of Nashville in rural Maury County.
Trump gained 72 p.c of the vote in Maury County final 12 months, and Quigley’s case for Molder is that he has expertise — and a few success — profitable votes in the deep-red elements of the district.
Behn hasn’t stated what her particular 2026 plans are. “This is not the end — it is the beginning of the next chapter,” she stated in a assertion after conceding the particular election. “The road ahead is bright for Tennessee and for this country.”
There is buzz amongst some Tennessee Democrats that she would possibly run in the fifth as a substitute of making an attempt once more in the seventh, as a result of it seen as extra favorable to Democrats.
“I think it would be an unfortunate food fight,” Quigley stated of that concept.
Names apart, Quigley’s expectation is there might be a number of candidates in every district and, sure, virtually assured rigidity between Democratic liberals and moderates.
“Primary voters are going to figure out who they want to be their standard-bearer,” Quigley stated. “I do think that voters are also smart enough to figure out who’s the person who’s been able to sort of put this together and is in alignment with the district they are running in.”
The long-shot Democratic hopes right here additionally depend upon one thing past their management: the temper of the Republican base. Behn didn’t simply run up spectacular numbers in Nashville correct. The district spans 14 counties, from the Kentucky border to the Alabama border, and Behn over-performed the Democrats’ 2024 share in each one of them. Republicans insist it was a particular election and all might be positive subsequent 12 months; Democrats argue outcomes coast to coast in 2025 proved the Republican base is just not as motivated to vote.
Luis and Cyndi Cortes personal the Mount Juliet location of the espresso store the place the ladies meet.
They are Trump supporters. Luis can’t vote as a result of his mother and father introduced him to the United States illegally as a little one. They had been deported to Mexico when he was 17, however he was allowed to remain as half of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program created by President Barack Obama.
Luis has everlasting resident standing now and hopes to someday turn into a citizen and run for workplace. Cyndi voted for Obama and Hillary Clinton, however stated being a mother or father and proudly owning a enterprise has made her extra conservative.
They moved to Mount Juliet from Nashville two years in the past as a result of they really feel extra at residence right here.
“There is something in this kind of suburban Nashville that we really hold dear. And that’s our love of God first and then our love for family and then our love for country,” Luis stated.
The couple personal three espresso outlets in Middle Tennessee. Tariffs on espresso and paper items have harm their backside line in 2025, however they are saying they’re prepared to make a little much less to provide Trump time for his insurance policies to totally take maintain.
“I guess my patriot side — I’m saying I hope that the president is making the right investment in the country so that in a few years and a couple of generations, we can reap the rewards of that,” Luis Cortes stated.
Both consider it’s crucial the nation have a safe border and an organized immigration system. They acknowledge, although, that the aggressive deportation roundups applied by the Trump administration give them some pause.
“The means at which we are getting there is difficult, not comfortable to watch,” Cyndi Cortes stated. “And it’s definitely affected Latin American communities.”
Both consider that their space is just too conservative to elect a Democrat to Congress.
Yet Cyndi’s 2026 take might turn into vital.
She voted for Ogles in 2024 as half of a straight Republican ticket. But she had turn into disillusioned with him as a result of of questions on his monetary disclosure and different points. She plans to vote in opposition to him in the GOP major subsequent 12 months.
“I can’t put a vote for a candidate that I just don’t feel embodies the values that matter to us,” she stated. “A strong character and honest, you know, honest character is important.”
And if Ogles win the major?
“I’m not opposed to voting for a Democratic candidate if his values and what he wants to do for this district is aligned with our goals as well,” Cyndi Cortes stated. “So it is not off the table.”