Tropical Storm Melissa is barely shifting through the Caribbean, and that’s precisely what makes it so harmful. The longer it lingers, the extra rain it dumps. Haiti, Jamaica and the Dominican Republic could face days of relentless downpours and landslides.
As of Thursday morning, Melissa was about 240 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, with sustained winds close to 50 mph, based on the National Hurricane Center. It’s drifting west at simply 3 mph, slower than the common particular person on a day stroll. The storm is stalled over water that’s record-hot – excellent gas for a storm to blow up in power.
A hurricane watch has been issued for components of Haiti and a tropical storm watch is in impact for Jamaica.
Melissa is forecast to achieve hurricane power by the weekend and could intensify quickly right into a major hurricane – Category 3 or better – by early subsequent week. If it does, it will be the fourth of the first 5 Atlantic hurricanes this season to achieve Category 4 or stronger, one thing seen solely three different occasions on report: 1932, 1999 and 2010, based on Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.
The storm is already bringing heavy rain to components of the Caribbean. Forecasters warn of as much as 10 inches of rainfall, with remoted totals topping a foot throughout southern Haiti, southern Dominican Republic and jap Jamaica through Saturday. The hurricane heart says life-threatening flash flooding and quite a few landslides are probably in mountainous areas.
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It’s barely shifting. When a storm crawls like this, rainfall piles up over the similar cities for days. An identical setup produced catastrophic floods in 2017 with Harvey, which dumped over 4 ft of rain on components of Texas, and in 2019 with Dorian, which dropped almost 2 ft of rain in the Bahamas and over a foot in components of South Carolina.
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Mountains enlarge the flood risk. Haiti and the Dominican Republic’s steep terrain will pressure air upward, wringing out moisture from the storm, similar to squeezing a moist sponge, turning tropical humidity into torrents racing downhill. Mudslides are all however assured on this state of affairs. We noticed this play out when Helene devastated western North Carolina final 12 months. Helene was shifting extra rapidly than Melissa, which is able to pack much more of a punch because it stalls out over related steep terrain.
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The Caribbean Sea warmth runs deep. The Caribbean’s record-warm waters lengthen far under the floor, stopping the regular “stirring up” of cooler water that may weaken hurricanes. Melissa is predicted to strengthen because it meanders, feasting on that deep reservoir of warmth.
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It’s a harmful mixture of worst situations. Melissa combines the worst options of previous catastrophic storms: sluggish motion, mountains enhancing rainfall and potential for 130+ mph sustained winds. This sort of storm can drench and destroy the whole lot in its path. Also, it’s focusing on islands, not open shoreline. That means storm surge, destructive winds and days of unrelenting rain could all hit without delay.
Melissa’s precise monitor stays unsure, however the vary of potentialities is narrowing and no potential consequence appears good. The storm is trapped between competing climate methods which can be locking it in place over the north-central Caribbean. That leaves Jamaica and Hispaniola squarely in the hazard zone.
Scenario 1: The lengthy, sluggish drift west.
If Melissa continues creeping west or west-northwest, it could linger south of Jamaica into early subsequent week – proper over a few of the warmest water on Earth. That setup could supercharge the storm, probably pushing it to Category 4 power or larger by Monday. In that case, Jamaica and southern Haiti would face days of destructive winds, storm surge and torrential rain.
Scenario 2: A quicker pull north.
If the jet stream tugs Melissa northward sooner, the storm could transfer towards Haiti or the Dominican Republic this weekend. That would cap its depth a bit however put closely populated, flood-prone areas straight in the crosshairs. Hispaniola’s terrain would wring out much more rain, heightening the threat of catastrophic flash floods and mudslides.
Either path brings days of flooding adopted by probably devastating winds and surge.
The US mainland isn’t fully out of the woods, however a direct US hit appears unlikely. If Melissa takes longer to show north, it could bend towards jap Cuba or the Bahamas earlier than curving into the Atlantic. Even so, tough surf and rip currents could unfold alongside the US East Coast subsequent week – the calling card of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Hurricanes normally lose steam by late October, when cooler water and stronger wind shear take over. Not this 12 months. The Caribbean stays record-hot, with ocean heat extending deep under the floor – sufficient to maintain Melissa strengthening.
Melissa’s anticipated explosion in power from tapping into that vitality is one thing that’s happening more often as the world warms as a consequence of fossil gas air pollution. Just this 12 months, three of the 4 Atlantic hurricanes so far underwent extreme rapid intensification: Erin, Gabrielle and Humberto.
It’s a part of a broader sample scientists have been warning about: as the planet warms, hurricanes are intensifying quicker and dumping extra rain, particularly in the western Atlantic and Caribbean.
Melissa’s path and power will preserve evolving in the days forward, however the warning indicators are already there: a near-stationary storm over report warmth, surrounded by mountains and tens of millions of susceptible individuals.