A model of this story appeared in NCS’s What Matters publication. To get it in your inbox, join free here.
There are three broad teams of voters you’re probably to examine in American elections: Democrats, Republicans and independents.
More and extra voters have recognized as independents in recent times, and when independents break in some way, they invariably resolve who wins.
But independent voters are removed from a united group, as NCS’s polling unit reveals with a brand new mission that identifies a minimum of 5 distinct forms of independents.
Many independents, it seems, aren’t actually that independent in any respect. They’re both “Democratic lookalikes” or “Republican lookalikes,” usually supporting one get together’s candidates with out feeling an affinity for the get together itself.
In addition to the Democratic and Republican lookalikes, there are “Upbeat Outsiders,” the “Disappointed Middle” and the “Checked Out.” Learn more here.
I took these 5 groupings to a prime Republican and a prime Democratic pollster to learn the way they’ll issue into the 2026 midterms.
Kristen Soltis Anderson, the Republican pollster, is a NCS contributor and founding father of Echelon Insights. Molly Murphy, the Democratic pollster, is president of Impact Research.
Our conversations, carried out by cellphone and electronic mail and edited for readability, are under.
Is Democrats’ model in bother?
Democrats have a bonus amongst independent voters on this survey, but it surely’s primarily as a result of there’s a bigger group of voters who’re Democrats in all however title. Is this indicative of Democrats’ branding drawback or one thing else?
MURPHY: While these Democratic lookalike voters are essential towards Democrats, — actually extra essential than self-described Democrats are — it could even be a response to Trump, who they’re extremely down on, and Republicans, who they’re extremely down on. Less a rejection of the Democratic Party and extra that they’re independents who don’t determine with Republicans.
SOLTIS ANDERSON: Republicans went by way of a wrestle within the 2010s with members of their very own get together feeling turned off by the get together institution and label. The tables have actually turned.
The different fascinating factor about Democratic independents is {that a} majority contemplate themselves to be progressives, and a couple of quarter say they’re democratic socialists. Is Democrats’ drawback that they aren’t progressive sufficient?
SOLTIS ANDERSON: Republicans would love nothing greater than for Democrats to flip additional to the left. The neatest thing Democrats have of their favor is their precise high-turnout major voter base isn’t the identical as this less-engaged ideologically leftist group, in order that they have some power offering a test in opposition to unelectable candidates rising from primaries.
MURPHY: Ninety-eight p.c of those similar voters say that they need Democrats to management Congress. As in any get together, you’re going to see completely different ideologies emerge even amongst voters who contemplate themselves to be independent. So I don’t suppose that it’s indicative of a bigger drawback with the get together, as a result of all of their meant voting habits and need for management aligns with the overarching Democratic umbrella.
As a pollster, what would you say are the views that make a voter reasonable?
MURPHY: What tends to align for moderates is a reasonably large emphasis on financial points and possibly a dissatisfaction with both get together. Whether that’s correlation or causation is tough to know. I feel it isn’t that they, from a coverage standpoint, at all times take a extra reasonable strategy as a lot because it’s a management high quality: an emphasis on getting issues executed and bipartisanship deal with points that have an effect on the various reasonably than the few.
SOLTIS ANDERSON: Sometimes it’s that folks have weakly held views on all the pieces, generally it’s that they really are middle-of-the-road — however most of the time it’s as a result of folks take slightly from Column A and slightly from Column B, not agreeing wholeheartedly with one ideology or one other on a regular basis.
The upset center thinks it’s necessary to vote, however they hate the events and the system. How do you go about reengaging this turned-off however civic-minded voter?
SOLTIS ANDERSON: A populist, outsider message — delivered credibly, as a result of these voters odor phoniness a mile away — is the best way.
MURPHY: They’re going to vote. So it’s not about partaking them; it’s persuading them. If you take a look at the numbers with them, they’re an actual leap ball by way of who they’re going to vote for. They are extra probably to probably vote for the individual reasonably than the get together, due to their dissatisfaction with the get together as an entire. And additionally they need to see main reforms within the system. To me, that claims they want to see leaders who’re embodying the kinds of adjustments that they need, and who’re keen to sound slightly completely different and name out the issues within the nation the best way they see them — with out reinforcing cynicism, however understanding it.
Where Republican lookalikes break most with the get together is on the difficulty of abortion. But within the wake of Democrats’ loss in 2024 after Roe v. Wade, has the efficiency of abortion and reproductive rights diminished?
MURPHY: Don’t get me on my soapbox about this. Abortion was a very necessary difficulty to voters in 2024. It was the deciding think about plenty of the shut Senate races and among the governor’s races, by way of electing Democrats, even in states the place Trump received on the prime of the ticket. Voters do care about this difficulty. They will vote on this difficulty once they have considerations that abortion rights of their state or within the nation are threatened. It isn’t a cure-all for all the opposite issues, and I feel while you see the defection fee amongst Republican leaning independents on abortion, it tells you that that get together continues to be grossly out of step with voters, even those that overwhelmingly would in any other case vote Republican.
SOLTIS ANDERSON: Pocketbook points are overriding a variety of different points proper now.
The Democrats in title solely are more than likely to break with the get together on crime. Is crime going to change immigration as Republicans’ strain level difficulty in 2026?
SOLTIS ANDERSON: The politics of immigration are shifting as voters conclude that the fireplace has been put out and the border has develop into safer. Crime stays a priority even amongst those that really feel immigration enforcement has executed its job and is now maybe going too far.
MURPHY: Democrats who take a powerful place on crime, and who’re keen to discuss options to crime that embrace being harder and never draw back from the difficulty, have a tendency to do very well. There is a confirmed path for Democrats who’re keen to take up this difficulty and discuss it with credibility. And I feel that may proceed to be the case.
But among the most notable Democratic candidates at present have very completely different views.
MURPHY: Plenty of emphasis will get positioned on the person candidates who take a extra liberal place on crime and policing, and it ignores the vast swath of Democratic elected officers and candidates who don’t take that place. The extra you have got Democrats who’re the (Democratic candidate for governor in New Jersey) Mikie Sherrills and (Democratic candidate for governor in Virginia) Abigail Spanbergers who take a extra commonsense strategy to crime, it’s a counter to that. Individual candidates in any get together are going to run on their very own platform and beliefs. That’s the character of political events. The drawback turns into letting a couple of candidates or a fringe place inside the get together develop into the defining place of the get together, which I don’t adhere to.
Republican lookalikes are much less probably than Republicans to contemplate themselves MAGA. What’s the message there for candidates?
SOLTIS ANDERSON: Republicans want a message in regards to the points that draw folks towards their get together reasonably than the president himself.
Is MAGA a distinct model than Republican at this level?
MURPHY: Everything I’ve seen, together with in focus teams and in information, is that MAGA is now the Republican Party. People who don’t adhere to that, increasingly, are most likely falling into these Republican lookalike definitions the place possibly 10 years in the past they had been simply Republicans. At this level they may develop into an independent as opposed to being a Republican, as a result of it’s simply disappearing.
SOLTIS ANDERSON: I nonetheless consider them as fairly completely different. About half of the Republicans in my surveys do consider themselves as “Trump supporters” at first, however the different half consider themselves extra as supporting the get together.
A majority of each group however the Republican lookalikes is both full-on offended or a minimum of dissatisfied with Trump’s insurance policies. Is that what you’d count on for a president heading right into a midterm or is that this one thing completely different?
SOLTIS ANDERSON: Voters have persistently felt authorities has under-delivered relative to their expectations. Their disappointment is why we appear to have “swing” elections each two years. It is far simpler to be the opposition on this period.
MURPHY: I feel this seems to be dangerous for Trump. With an image of this universe of independents, you’ll reasonably be a Democrat than a Republican. And you’d actually reasonably be a Democrat than be Trump, by way of their perceptions of Trump and the insurance policies. It is in step with Trump’s approval ranking dropping since taking workplace, and the majority of his insurance policies at this level being web destructive nationally. And so I’m not shocked that independents are following an identical path
What does this polling let you know about how to inspire new or dissatisfied voters in 2026?
MURPHY: That we could very effectively nonetheless be in a change voters, and that voters had been in a change mindset in 2024. It doesn’t seem like that’s abated. It doesn’t seem like voters are feeling like they bought the change they needed. Their satisfaction and embrace of the events has not modified. They don’t consider that the system is working. Engaging and constructing that voter belief is by having the ability to discuss in regards to the want for change within the system. If you’re a Democrat, that change wants to have a selected taste towards how Trump and Republicans should not solely not altering the system, however making it worse.
SOLTIS ANDERSON: I nonetheless suppose pocketbook points and price of dwelling will drive this election. People who should not strongly ideological simply need an financial system and a authorities that works for them.
Will 2026 be extra about altering minds or getting individuals who have already got an opinion to truly present up?
SOLTIS ANDERSON: Donald Trump has remade the GOP coalition by bringing in “unlikely voters.” Republicans now do higher when turnout is excessive. They want these unlikely or loosely tuned-in voters to come out even when it isn’t a presidential 12 months.
Is there something on this polling that notably caught your eye?
MURPHY: The Democratic lookalikes are double the scale of your Republican lookalikes. You can take a glass-half-full or glass-half-empty strategy to that. On one hand, you may actually say, why aren’t they Democrats? But what I take a look at is these are independent voters who don’t really feel affiliated with both get together, however at present would vote for Democrats virtually 10 instances out of 10 by way of what their preferences are. Especially for those who take away the checked-out voters and assume they don’t end up, Democrats would win a large majority, by my math, of those independent voters at present, simply primarily based on who they like to management Congress, which is an honest proxy for generic poll desire.
The largest group of independent voters we recognized is the checked out. It’s greater than 1 / 4 of unaffiliated voters and so they practically all opted out of the 2024 presidential election. Do you even strive to attain the sort of voter that’s not involved in voting?
SOLTIS ANDERSON: If somebody isn’t voting in presidential elections, persuading them to take part in a midterm, the place turnout is persistently decrease, goes to be extraordinarily difficult.
MURPHY: No… They’ve made a aware determination to decide out due to their bigger view in regards to the system. I feel that they’re very onerous to attain. That doesn’t imply that sure candidates or circumstances may not have interaction them, however holistically, I feel that when campaigns are strapped for assets, and the objective is to persuade voters who present some likelihood of voting, these voters are most likely a decrease precedence.