The U.S. Capitol is seen on the second day of the federal government shutdown on October 2, 2025, in Washington D.C.
Mehmet Eser | Anadolu | Getty Images
With the government shutdown nearing its one-week mark, buyers could also be monitoring how the stalemate in Washington is affecting their portfolios.
So far, shares have been doing simply nice. Although the S&P 500 was down barely on Tuesday, the index returned 0.80% between Oct. 1 and Oct. 6 — and even notched a number of new highs.
And it seems that market good points throughout and following a government shutdown are usually not uncommon.
“Historically, shutdowns themselves have rarely derailed equities,” mentioned Cathy Curtis, a licensed monetary planner and the founder and CEO of Curtis Financial Planning in Oakland, California. Curtis can be a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.
Markets do not worth in ‘present noise’
The S&P 500 spiked 36% throughout the yr after the final government shutdown, led to early 2019, Morningstar Direct discovered. One hundred days following the 1982 shutdown, the index was up 19.7%.
“Markets are forward-looking and tend to price in future conditions, not current noise,” mentioned Andrew Hiesinger, founder and CEO of Quant Data, a market data platform.
Post-shutdown good points aren’t common. For instance, 100 days after the January 2018 shutdown, the S&P had fallen 4.5%, and was nonetheless down 3.1% at the one-year mark.
The inventory market is not performing too poorly throughout the present shutdown as a result of buyers are betting on softer inflation and eventual fee cuts from the Federal Reserve, Hiesinger mentioned.
“The market has learned to discount recurring political drama that rarely changes long-term fundamentals,” he added.
That means buyers can mood their reactions to the headlines, too, Curtis mentioned.
“The best response to a shutdown is usually no reaction at all,” she mentioned. “Staying invested through uncertainty has historically rewarded those who remain patient.”
The S&P 500 shutdown efficiency information additionally present the advantages of investing in a various basket of shares, such as through ETFs or mutual funds, relatively than in anyone particular person firm.
“In times of political gridlock, broad exposure often outperforms reactive trading,” Hiesinger mentioned.