As the United States continues a vital military buildup within the Middle East, Iran has taken steps to sign its readiness for conflict, together with fortifying its nuclear websites and rebuilding missile manufacturing amenities.
Iranian and US negotiators held oblique talks in Geneva for three-and-a-half hours on Tuesday, however it ended with no clear decision. Iran’s prime diplomat Abbas Araghchi mentioned each side agreed on a set of “guiding principles,” however US Vice President JD Vance mentioned the Iranians had not acknowledged “red lines” set by US President Donald Trump.
Despite ongoing talks, the White House has been briefed that the US military might be prepared for an assault by the weekend, after a buildup in current days of air and naval property within the Middle East, sources conversant in the matter instructed NCS.
Amid the specter of conflict, Iran has spent current months repairing key missile amenities and closely broken air bases whereas additional concealing its nuclear program. It has appointed conflict veterans to its nationwide safety buildings, performed maritime wargames within the Persian Gulf and launched an intense crackdown on home dissent.
In June final yr, Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran that destroyed components of its nuclear program, severely broken missile manufacturing websites and killed key military commanders. Over the following 12-day battle, Iran retaliated by launching lots of of missiles and drones at Israeli cities, whereas the US struck three Iranian nuclear websites – with US President Donald Trump claiming they’d been “totally obliterated.”
Western nations have persistently failed to influence Iran to curb its missile program, which Tehran regards as a central pillar of its military energy and a proper to its self-defense.
Despite struggling heavy losses within the conflict with Israel, satellite tv for pc imagery evaluation reveals that Iran has rebuilt broken missile amenities.
Satellite imagery of the Imam Ali Missile Base in Khorramabad, captured on January 5, reveals that of the dozen buildings destroyed by Israel, three have been rebuilt, one has been repaired whereas three others are at the moment below building. The facility homes silo launch websites important for firing ballistic missiles with earthwork and building round them.
Two different military bases have additionally undergone in depth repairs. At the northwestern Tabriz air base linked to Iran’s medium-range ballistic missiles, taxiways and runways have been restored. In one other a missile base within the north of the town, in depth work has been performed after the conflict. All the entrances had been reopened after being bombed shut, the assist space by the doorway was largely rebuilt and a few tunnels are actually open, in keeping with a NCS evaluation and Sam Lair, a analysis affiliate on the James Martin Center for Non-proliferation Studies (CNS).
At Hamadan Airbase in western Iran, craters created by bombs on the runway have been crammed and plane shelters repaired, in keeping with a NCS evaluation and Lair.
Iran has additionally swiftly rebuilt its largest and latest solid-propellant missile manufacturing facility in Shahrud, a know-how that permits for the speedy deployment of longer-range missiles.
“I think the most important site is Shahrud. The damage there was repaired very quickly,” Lair mentioned. “There was also a new production line under construction there during the war which was not damaged and is now likely operational, which means counterintuitively solid propellant missile motor production might be greater now than before the war, at least at that site.”
Despite expressing flexibility in limiting its nuclear program, Iran is quickly fortifying a number of of its nuclear amenities, utilizing concrete and enormous quantities of soil to bury key websites, in keeping with new satellite tv for pc imagery and evaluation from the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS).
High-resolution satellite tv for pc imagery from February 10, 2026, analyzed by ISIS, reveals Iran persevering with to harden tunnel entrances on the underground advanced carved into Pickaxe Mountain close to Natanz. Fresh concrete is seen at each the western and jap entrances, rising safety that might assist defend the power from potential airstrikes, alongside vans and different building tools on the website.
At a nuclear facility often called ‘Taleghan 2’ on the Parchin military advanced southeast of Tehran, satellite tv for pc photographs printed this week present that Iran has accomplished a concrete sarcophagus across the website and is now masking it with soil, in keeping with the Washington-based institute that focuses on nuclear nonproliferation.
“The facility may soon become a fully unrecognizable bunker, providing significant protection from aerial strikes,” ISIS president David Albright warned in a post on X.
At the seventh of Tir Industrial Complex close to Isfahan in central Iran, which is linked to producing centrifuge components for uranium enrichment, broken buildings have been rebuilt, in keeping with NCS-reviewed picture evaluation. The advanced was sanctioned by the UN in October 2025.
“I think Iran is reconstituting its nuclear and missile programs, probably faster than Israel claimed it could during (Operation) Rising Lion,” Jeffrey Lewis, Distinguished Scholar of Global Security at Middlebury College, instructed NCS referring to the Israeli strikes in June.
“The reconstruction of the buildings, as well as some other information, suggests that Iran was either able to replace that equipment or move it to safe places underground before the strikes,” he added.
Last yr’s battle with Israel laid naked weaknesses in Iran’s command buildings below strain, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly turning into more and more onerous to achieve and authority devolving to provincial governors.
Tehran has since strengthened the Supreme National Security Council headed by Khamenei confidant Ali Larijani and fashioned a new authority – the Defense Council – to manipulate in instances of conflict.
War veteran and a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Ali Shamkhani, who survived an Israeli try on his life throughout final yr’s conflict, was appointed this month because the secretary of the Defense Council, with the goal of “comprehensively strengthening defense preparations” and creating “mechanisms to counter emerging threats,” an outlet affiliated with Iran’s safety equipment, Nour News, mentioned.
Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow on the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, mentioned Shamkhani’s appointment alerts that Iran is preparing for the potential for a US decapitation strike – doubtlessly concentrating on the Supreme Leader himself.
“It’s becoming a … more immediate question, the issue of post-Khamenei succession, and they are getting prepared for that … whether or not that’s going to be the case, it depends on many factors, like the scale of a potential US attack or a campaign. But this is at least what I can see happening from within the system,” he instructed NCS’s Becky Anderson.
Israel’s strikes on Iran in June had been preceded by a refined infiltration by Israel’s Mossad spy company, a tactic that heightened the already paranoid state of the Iranian regime.
Iran has intensified its crackdown on dissent amid considerations conflict may set off regime change. Last month, safety forces brutally suppressed nationwide protests, killing hundreds and arresting many extra within the deadliest suppression of demonstrations within the historical past of the Islamic Republic.
The regime accused protesters of being Israeli spies and deployed the brutal native paramilitary Basij power to suppress demonstrations which had been sparked by poor financial situations however reworked into calls for regime change.
And the regime’s deepening paranoia has even turned inward. Last week, 4 outstanding reformists who campaigned for President Masoud Pezeshkian had been detained by Iranian safety forces and accused of incitement in opposition to “the internal atmosphere” and dealing “to destroy national cohesion by … spreading untrue positions against the country,”
As Iranian negotiators engaged with the US in Geneva, Iran launched naval drills within the Persian Gulf to display its disruptive capabilities to Washington’s regional allies.
In a first, the IRGC closed components of the Strait of Hormuz for a few hours because it performed naval workout routines, in keeping with Iranian media. The important chokepoint is positioned between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, by way of which one-fifth of each day oil international manufacturing circulation day by day.
Iranian officers have beforehand threatened to shut the strait within the face of tensions with the West, a state of affairs that might trigger upheaval within the international vitality market.
Iran’s navy additionally held a joint train with Russia within the Gulf of Oman and northern Indian Ocean, the place the 2 sides carried out a drill to “retake a mock hijacked ship,” in keeping with Iranian state media.
This month, the US deployed two aircraft carriers to the area, and one in all them shot down an Iranian drone that because it aggressively approached it within the Arabian Sea. And earlier, two gunboats operated by the IRGC approached a US-flagged tanker within the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to board and seize the ship, in keeping with a US military spokesman.
Amid the US military buildup and Iran’s wartime preparations, specialists say Iranian officers try to ship a message to the US.
“The Iranian tactic is trying to convince the United States that war is going to be costly,” mentioned Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University mentioned. “This is not like June. This is not going to be like Venezuela, that the United States will have to face certain costs and it has to calculate those costs before it actually strikes Iran,” he mentioned.