Aftyn Behn, the Democratic nominee for subsequent week’s particular election in a closely Republican Tennessee congressional district, has made affordability considerations a centerpiece of her marketing campaign messaging – mirroring the playbook of the social gathering’s victorious candidates for governor in Virginia and New Jersey earlier this month.
Tuesday’s contest is poised to take a look at simply how far Democrats can ride that argument in a district that President Donald Trump carried by 22 factors final November.
Republicans are hoping the district’s partisan lean, mixed with Behn’s progressive profile and not too long ago resurfaced remarks on policing and different points, will tilt the race in their favor. Democrats, in the meantime, are banking that voters’ frustration over the GOP agenda in Washington might assist them considerably overperform in a race that in any other case wouldn’t be aggressive.
“I’ve always said, I don’t care who you voted for,” Behn informed NCS in an interview. “I don’t care what political party you belong to, but if you are upset about the cost of living and the chaos of Washington, then I’m your candidate, and I welcome you with open arms.”
The seventh Congressional District, which grew to become vacant earlier this 12 months when former GOP Rep. Mark Green resigned, consists of elements of Nashville however is largely rural, stretching from the state’s border with Kentucky in the north to Alabama in the south. As a part of the 2022 redistricting course of, Tennessee GOP lawmakers redrew Nashville from one solidly Democratic district – lengthy held by average Rep. Jim Cooper – into three seats that favored Republicans.
Despite Republicans’ benefit in the district, Democrats noticed a possibility to go on offense after their social gathering’s whole vote depend in the October primary got here about 6,000 shy of the variety of ballots solid in the GOP main. Behn, a state consultant and progressive organizer, narrowly gained the four-way Democratic main. Matt Van Epps, a fight veteran and member of the Tennessee Army National Guard running with Trump’s endorsement, beat 10 different candidates to win the Republican nomination.
The particular election has attracted hundreds of thousands of {dollars} in spending from exterior teams and visits from nationwide figures equivalent to former Vice President Kamala Harris, with each events eyeing it as the final main gauge of the nation’s political surroundings earlier than the calendar turns to 2026.
On Monday, Trump will maintain his second tele-rally for Van Epps, this time alongside House Speaker Mike Johnson, the candidate’s marketing campaign confirmed. Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez may even maintain a tele-rally for Behn the identical day, a supply acquainted informed NCS.
Of the greater than $4 million spent on promoting in the race since the October main, in accordance to AdImpact, practically $2.5 million has come from Republicans – a lot of that targeted on portray Behn as out-of-step with the district, highlighting her previous feedback on subjects equivalent to defunding the police. One advert from the Trump-aligned tremendous PAC MAGA Inc. features a clip of Behn describing herself as “a very radical person.”
Opponents have additionally mined episodes of her podcast together with one from 2020 the place she talked about her dislike of nation music and Nashville’s standing as a preferred vacationer vacation spot, in addition to a video Behn recorded in May whereas monitoring immigration operations in her district in which she mentioned she was “bullying the ICE vehicles and state troopers.” (Behn mentioned her use of the phrase bullying was satire.)
In her interview with NCS, Behn steered Republicans have “been caught flat-footed, and they have resorted to personal attacks and character assassination.” Addressing the flurry of stories about her previous feedback in the last weeks of the marketing campaign, Behn claimed they have been “taken out of context and/or mischaracterized.”
Behn added that she was not a lawmaker at the time she made a lot of the feedback, and she or he’s since “matured” and shifted in the manner she approaches politics now that she’s a state consultant and never solely an activist.
“I’ve learned a lot, and I would hope that voters in the 7th District would give me the benefit of the doubt, that despite whatever … is being resurfaced right now, that I’m someone who has a track record of trying to unrig the system in favor of working people,” she informed NCS.
Tennessee Democrats informed NCS they imagine voters in the district will weigh different considerations when deciding on their vote in the election.
“It’s really all about the mess in Washington,” mentioned Cooper, referring to the deciding issue of the race. “It’s a very important chance for Tennessee voters in one of the most beautiful parts of Tennessee to really speak loudly and clearly and say, ‘Hey, we’re upset, we need some help, and we’re looking for somebody who’s gonna help us.’”
Behn’s marketing campaign sees the hundreds of thousands that Republicans are pouring into the race as an indication of rising GOP concern. One marketing campaign adviser pointed to a latest advert from Van Epps in which the Republican nominee doesn’t point out the president, however leans into messaging about bringing down prices and making well being care extra inexpensive.
“The type of content that you’re seeing from Matt Van Epps is what you’d expect to see from a Blue Dog Democrat in a district that Trump won by five points, not from a Republican in a district that Trump won by 22,” mentioned Ian Russell.
Even as Democrats outperform their 2024 margins in particular elections this 12 months, each events see Van Epps as the favourite heading into Tuesday. “With strong conservative turnout, we will have a win next Tuesday, and I’ll hit the ground running, working with President Trump to lower the cost of living for hardworking Tennessee families,” Van Epps mentioned in an announcement to NCS.
Still, Republicans are bracing for a consequence that can be nearer than the greater than 20-point margins posted by Trump and Green a 12 months in the past.
Chip Saltsman, a Nashville-based Republican strategist not working with the Van Epps marketing campaign, mentioned that in contrast to Green, an incumbent and former state lawmaker who represented a part of the district earlier than the 2022 redistricting, Van Epps is a first-time candidate. He added that whereas he nonetheless expects Van Epps to win, Democrats had executed a greater job of rapidly pivoting to the common election.
“We’ve been so focused on the Republican primary, because that’s really the only game in town for most of the state,” Saltsman mentioned. “Republicans got a little bit of a late start in reminding [voters] that there is actually a general election.”
Scott Golden, the chair of the Tennessee Republican Party, mentioned the social gathering was working to get Van Epp’s message out there, however argued it could been getting misplaced in the information about Behn’s previous feedback.
“We’re not nervous that we’re going to lose, but we have to make sure that we work every single second,” Golden mentioned.
Behn has made well being care and grocery affordability a central a part of her message, which she argues has been a typical theme of her activism and political work.
“I’m someone who hasn’t equivocated on affordability,” she mentioned. “It has at all times been my ethos and my organizing agenda, legislative agenda, to make issues extra inexpensive for Tennesseans.
Born and raised in Knoxville, Behn attended faculty in Austin and moved again to Tennessee throughout Trump’s first time period in workplace. While the president and Republicans pursued their failed 2017 effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act, she labored as a group well being care organizer for the Tennessee Justice Center, a non-profit regulation agency primarily based in Nashville.
During her time as a nationwide organizer for Indivisible, a progressive grassroots group, Behn took a go away of absence to assist arrange protests in opposition to the expulsion of two Black lawmakers who protested on the state House ground in favor of gun management. The expertise, she mentioned, impressed her to run in a September 2023 particular election for a Nashville-area state legislature seat.
She’s emphasised her efforts to repeal the state’s four percent grocery tax, her work advocating in opposition to cuts to Medicaid and the cost-of-living points she says Republicans in Washington have failed to deal with.
“This race is competitive because the Washington Republican agenda has not delivered,” Behn mentioned. “They have not addressed costs despite the commitment from the Trump administration to make groceries cheaper, utilities cheaper, rent cheaper … and I think people are looking for an opportunity to vote for someone who’s going to usher in an era of change.”