After US President Donald Trump’s summit with Chinese chief Xi Jinping earlier this month, a lot focus has been placed on Washington’s assist for Taiwan and US arms sales to its authorities.
On the primary day of these talks Xi delivered a stark warning to his US counterpart – that Taiwan, an important excellent subject between the US and China, might turn into a “very dangerous situation” if mishandled.
Trump has delayed signing a $14 billion arms deal for Taiwan that was just lately authorized by Congress, calling it a “very good negotiating chip” in his dealings with Xi.
Meanwhile, appearing US Navy Secretary Hung Cao mentioned the deal was being delayed because the Pentagon made certain it has sufficient weapons for the conflict with Iran.
But Taiwan’s Defense Ministry mentioned final week it has not been notified by the US of any delay in arms sales.
With the confusion and conflicting statements across the subject, right here’s a take a look at the method and regulation concerning US navy sales to Taiwan, the democratically ruled island of 23 million that Beijing claims to be its personal.
Xi has not dominated out using power to sooner or later acquire management of Taiwan.
The US is sure by an act of Congress to present Taiwan with the means to defend itself.
In 1979, US President Jimmy Carter’s administration switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei — whose authorities was and nonetheless is formally referred to as the Republic of China (ROC) — to Beijing, often known as the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The transfer ended a mutual protection treaty between Washington and Taipei, a lot to the dismay on the time of the US Congress, which rapidly handed the Taiwan Relations Act to assert its function in relations throughout the Taiwan Strait.
Congress thought Carter made a “bad bargain,” in accordance to the Brookings Institution suppose tank.
“They felt that by giving into Chinese demands that he terminate diplomatic relations with Taiwan and end the mutual defense treaty, Carter had left the island profoundly vulnerable,” Brookings says.
The Taiwan Relations Act states that the way forward for Taiwan should be determined by “peaceful means” and that the US “shall provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character” that may allow it to “preserve a enough self-defense capability.
Last week, chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell mentioned “Our Taiwan policy remains unchanged, and the US continues to adhere to long-standing commitments consistent with the Taiwan Relations Act.”
While a US-China joint communique issued in 1982 talked about Washington’s intention of a gradual and eventual discount in its arms sales to Taiwan pending a peaceable decision, Beijing has interpreted the textual content as a binding dedication whereas US officers have lengthy disputed the notion — stressing that Washington had by no means agreed to set a date for ending such sales nor wouldn’t it seek the advice of Beijing beforehand
Since 1979, Taiwan has bought tens of billions of {dollars} in US navy methods, from big-ticket gadgets like destroyers, frigates, jet fighters and primary battle tanks, to smaller gadgets like anti-aircraft, anti-tank missiles, pc methods and logistical assist.
But few have made it to the island rapidly.
“It is not unusual for defense sales to take years to complete, sometimes never actually meeting full delivery,” mentioned Jeff Abramson, senior non-resident fellow on the Center for International Policy (CIP).
“Typically, arms are not already manufactured when they are first sold, but are instead orders and the timing of their delivery can depend on industrial capacity, US military needs for those weapons that might take preference, others who might be in line as higher priority to receive them, or simply changed situations between order and delivery,” he mentioned.
In Taiwan’s case, that’s resulted in a vital backlog of virtually $30 billion in weapons nonetheless to be delivered, in accordance to an April 2026 report from the Taiwan Security Monitor (TSM) undertaking at George Mason University.
Joe O’Connor, assistant director at TSM, detailed some offers which have been accomplished this yr or are nonetheless delayed after years.
An order for 291 small ALTIUS-600M loitering munitions made in 2024 was accomplished in 21 months, whereas an order for 108 Abrams tanks made in 2019 took 81 months to fulfill, with the ultimate models solely reaching Taiwan final month, he mentioned.
And Taipei remains to be ready for F-16 fighter jets ordered in 2019 to be delivered, with manufacturing and flight testing solely just lately begun, O’Connor mentioned.
Taiwan’s Defense Ministry mentioned as of this April, among the many 23 main US arm sales over the past decade, 5 of them have been totally delivered. Three are partially delivered, and the remaining 15 gadgets are nonetheless underneath manufacturing.
Among the weapons methods delivered in the final decade are TOW-2B and Javelin missiles, primary battle tanks, Phalanx naval protection methods and gas tankers.
Inside Taiwan there was rising debate in latest years on whether or not the island’s navy procurement has overly targeted on costly, big-ticket gadgets that take too a few years to produce and might be weak in opposition to China’s a lot bigger and better-equipped navy.
Many have as an alternative pushed a so-called “porcupine strategy” the place Taiwan embraces low-cost and easy-to-produce uneven weaponry designed and developed locally, such as drones and anti-ship missiles.
Domestic manufacturing of uneven weaponry might be a attainable resolution for Taipei, because the TSM experiences that the arms supply backlog is nearly evenly break up between uneven and conventional weaponry.
Raymond Greene, the de facto US ambassador to Taiwan, has beforehand said that there was a “misperception” in regards to the quantity of delays, and that the “vast majority” of present delays are associated to the F-16V program.
It’s that diverse – and prolonged – supply report that has analysts saying that Trump’s delay in signing the latest $14 billion deal has little impression of Taiwan’s navy readiness.
That deal appeared to be targeted on air defenses and drone countermeasures, with methods like Patriot missiles and the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems included.
Those are extremely valued methods, not just for the US navy, but in addition its allies and companions all over the world, and Trump’s delay might imply Taiwan’s order will get pushed down in the queue, O’Connor mentioned.
The conflict with Iran has resulted in the US, Israel and many US allies in the Gulf burning by vital portions of their very own costly anti-air missile batteries – usually in opposition to comparative cheap Iranian drones – and these stockpiles will even want to be refilled.
But Patriot supply was seemingly years away in any case. Analysts say it’s a bellwether of a disaster in US arms manufacturing affecting all clients.
The superior PAC-3 MSE interceptors require 24 months manufacturing lead time for the missile and 30 months its stable rocket motor, in accordance to a paper from the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
“Such timelines are due to physical industrial constraints, such as the lengthy curing time required for solid rocket motors and the complex, multi-year process of qualifying any new component supplier,” the paper says.
That means even when Trump authorized the deal as we speak, Taiwan wouldn’t be fielding the brand new Patriots till 2028 on the earliest.
“Even an emergency response moves at a pace that is strategically irrelevant in the short term,” the FPRI paper says.
O’Connor says the realm the place a signing delay could cause extra fast issues is in power planning, the place anticipated arms purchases are constructed into reform and modernization efforts.
He additionally notes that any delay in new arms orders doesn’t have an effect on these already underneath contract, which “appear to be ongoing regardless of a pause in future sales.”
Of course, that would change at any time. As the appearing Navy secretary famous in the congressional listening to, the US wants to replenish arms stockpiles drawn down by the Iran war. Taiwan would take a again seat to that.
Abramson, on the CIP, says conditions that dictate the significance of any arms package deal change over time.
“As with almost all situations, other activities to defuse the situation will have more impact than the provision of arms,” he mentioned.
NCS’s Wayne Chang contributed to this report.