History of 1 seed vs. 16 seed in March Madness

No. 1 seeds have traditionally dominated No. 16 seeds for the reason that NCAA event expanded its subject in 1985.

UMBC became the first No. 16 seed ever to upset a No. 1 seed in 2018, when the Retrievers defeated Virginia and have become an in a single day sensation. In 2023, (*1*)

Here’s every part it’s worthwhile to learn about 16 seeds vs. 1 seeds in March Madness.

History of 16 vs. 1 seeds in March Madness

• Top seeds personal a 158-2 all-time document in opposition to 16 seeds. FDU vs. Purdue in 2023 was solely the second time the upset has occurred. That means 16 seeds have a 1.25 successful proportion in opposition to 1 seeds in the NCAA event.
• No recreation had been determined by one possession since 1996 (Purdue beat Western Carolina, 73-71).
• The highest scoring matchup happened in 1987, UNC’s 113-82 win over Penn.
• The lowest rating in a 1 vs. 16 recreation is 99 factors, which has occurred twice — Georgetown’s 50-49 win over Princeton in 1989, and UCLA’s 70-29 win over Mississippi Valley State in 2008.
• The largest blowout in the matchup’s historical past was in 1998, when Kansas bullied Prairie View A&M for a 110-52 win.

The instances a 16 nearly beat a 1

A 16 seed has come inside one level of a high seed twice. They had been each in the 1989 NCAA event. Georgetown beat Princeton by a rating of 50-49.

The second time was when Oklahoma outlasted ETSU, 72-71. ETSU led by 17 at one level, however OU stormed again.

That should have been a wake-up name for the Sooners, as a result of they beat No. 9 seed Louisiana Tech by 43 factors in the subsequent spherical.

The subsequent yr, Murray State took Michigan State to time beyond regulation, however finally misplaced 75-71. The final time a 16 seed misplaced to a 1 seed by single digits was in 2014, when Arizona defeated Weber State 68-59.

In 2026 Siena had Duke on the ropes. The Blue Devils is the first-ever 1-seed to path a 16-seed by double-digits at halftime in NCAA event historical past. Duke did not regain the lead. Duke misplaced the lead at 10-8 early in the opening half and did not regain it till 4:25 with a 63-61 lead and was capable of squeak out the win. 

The instances it really occurred

In 2023, the matchup between No. 1 seed Purdue and No. 16 FDU seemed like all however a certainty. More than 97% of brackets picked the Boilermakers to advance. After all, it was a matchup of the tallest staff in the event — with Purdue led by the 7-foot-4 middle Zach Edey — and the shortest staff in the sector in FDU.

The Knights held their very own, nursing a slender lead for a lot of the sport. The plan was to not cease the towering Edey as a lot because it was to nullify the remaining of the Purdue offense. FDU did simply that, forcing a number of errant pictures and limiting the Boilermakers to only 36% capturing from the sector in the 63-58 win.

Going into 2018, it at all times felt like the primary 16-over-1 upset can be shut. Well, that wasn’t the case. UMBC beat Virginia 74-54 and was in management for many of the sport.

UMBC would go on to lose to Kansas State by a rating of 50-43 in the subsequent spherical. Regardless, that Retrievers staff will probably be remembered eternally.

How more likely is a 15-2 upset than a 16-1 upset?

Five and a half instances extra possible. No. 15 seeds have upset 2 seeds 11 instances, together with a run of three seasons in a row from 2021 by means of 2023. Here are all of the instances it is occurred:

There have been 23 14-seed over 3-seed upsets, too. Clearly, the 16-1 is essentially the most scarce, and by a major quantity.