On Tuesday, NCS’s chief information analyst Harry Enten underscored the Republican Party’s “motivation problem” heading into November’s midterm elections.
Enten broke down a recent NCS/SSRS poll that discovered that solely 50% of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning voters polled Jan. 9–12indicated that they’re “extremely motivated” to solid their poll in 2026.
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The determine marks a double-digit decline — 17 share factors — from the 67% who answered the identical manner in October 2024.
“Republicans felt like, ‘Hey, we’re going out for ice cream.’ … Now they feel like they’re going to the dentist,” stated Enten of GOP voters’ diminishing enthusiasm.
Over the identical time interval, there was a slight leap within the share of registered Democrats (and Democratic-leaning voters) who stated they have been “extremely motivated” to vote, from 62% in 2024 to 66% in 2026.
Enten emphasised that Democrats have a “turnout advantage” heading into the midterms. According to the NCS/SSRS ballot, Democrats have a 16-point margin over Republicans when it comes to the share who say they’re “extremely motivated” to vote in November.
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He pointed to a numberof key races final yr during which Democrats got here out “in droves” and the place Democratic candidates outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris’ ends in the identical districts in 2024.
As Donald Trump marks one yr since his return to workplace on Tuesday, 70% of Republicans (and those that lean Republican) stated GOP lawmakers in Congress have been efficient at passing legal guidelines for insurance policies they assist, the NCS/SSRS ballot discovered. Last January, 90% of GOP and GOP-leaning respondents agreed with that sentiment.
“That is a huge drop,” Enten stated.
“So, that enthusiasm for Donald Trump isn’t necessarily translating to enthusiasm for voting for Republicans for office, because Donald Trump is signing a lot of executive orders, and Republicans in Congress aren’t necessarily passing a lot of laws.”