Gold futures hit a document excessive on Friday after U.S. authorities stated tariffs ought to be imposed on some gold bars — and a few strategists say there’s extra upside forward for the steel. U.S. gold futures for December supply touched on an all-time excessive of $3,534.10 on Friday morning, earlier than climbing right down to commerce at round $3,495 by 10 a.m. ET. Spot gold , in the meantime, was little modified at round $3,400 per ounce. @GC.1 1D line Gold futures value It got here after a “ruling” letter from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection company (CBP) steered forged gold bars from Switzerland ought to be subjected to new import tariffs on Swiss items. The information was first reported by the Financial Times. Earlier this week , U.S. President Donald Trump’s 39% “reciprocal” tariffs started to use to Swiss items. However there was some confusion on whether or not the “reciprocal” duties apply to gold bars. In the July 31 letter which was a response to a Swiss gold refinery’s request for clarification on tariffs, the CBP stated one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars ought to be categorized below a customs code that market watchers say won’t exempt them from reciprocal tariffs. The CBP stated in its ruling letter that the bars in query shouldn’t be categorised as unwrought non-monetary gold bullion or dore — which is categorized with the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) code 7108.12.10. Instead, the company stated, the bars ought to be categorised below the customs code 7108.13.5500. Switzerland, the world’s largest gold refiner, shipped 192.9 metric tons of gold to the U.S. in January. In a Friday be aware to purchasers, Michael Hsueh, a analysis analyst at Deutsche Bank, stated solely gold becoming the 7108.12.10 classification was exempt from U.S. tariffs. He stated uncertainty on gold tariffs “re-emerged” on the again of the FT publicizing the CBP’s ruling, labeling the gold futures spike “a reprise of the importing rush” that took maintain in late 2024 and earlier this yr. Demand for gold, broadly seen as a secure haven asset in occasions of market turbulence, has risen this yr, sending costs hovering . The CBP’s letter additionally defined that in line with new U.S. Executive Orders, all imported merchandise should now be reported to customs with particulars of both the reciprocal tariff that applies, or particulars of provisions that exempt the products from reciprocal tariffs. The responsibility price for gold varies based mostly on its particular traits and nation of origin, a spokesperson for the U.S. International Trade Commission stated Friday. In its ruling letter, the CBP instructed the Swiss refiner that its one-kilogram and 100-ounce bars didn’t qualify within the 7108.12.10 class, as that they had been stamped and needled or lasered with figuring out info. They have been subsequently too processed to qualify as unwrought. Deutsche Bank’s Hsueh stated in his be aware that whereas it was too early to make any closing judgements on the CBP’s letter, “on the face of it the CBP ruling is applicable to [gold imported from] all countries.” However, Hsueh steered there could be methods for gold exporters to skirt round U.S. tariffs. “The failure of tariff exemption is based on the nature of the manufactured gold bar and its HTS classification, rather than being dependent on the country of origin,” he defined, referring to the International Trade Commission’s Harmonized Tariff Schedule — the database that holds the customs codes for imported items. “There is nothing in the CBP ruling which precludes the gold refiner from adjusting its operations to produce gold in a format which fits HTS code 7108.12.10, thereby qualifying for tariff exemption. This could take the form of a cast bar which is only minimally processed after the fact, or granules which are likely to also qualify as minimally processed.” Jitters forward The new ruling on tariffs shocked the gold market, in line with Joni Teves, strategist at Swiss funding financial institution UBS. “This creates an issue for the global gold market which uses Comex gold futures to hedge positions, with the assumption that it can easily import metal into Comex warehouses in the US to physically settle contracts if needed,” she stated in a Friday be aware. “The tariff adds costs to this process, and with the bulk of refining capacity sitting in Switzerland which faces 39% US tariffs, these costs would be quite high.” Teves argued that till there’s readability on gold tariffs, markets have been prone to “remain jittery.” “Historically, the vast majority of Swiss gold exports to the US have fallen under the 7108.12 (unwrought) category, which is exempted from tariffs,” she stated. “On average, this tariff-exempt category accounted for ~78% of Swiss gold flows to the US.” Like Hseuh, UBS’ Teves steered that the gold trade could react by altering supply requirements — this could embrace permitting settlement in various places similar to London. “In the long run, the existence of US tariffs on deliverable gold products raises the question on the role of futures trading in the US as a means to hedge and whether other centres eventually step up as alternatives,” Teves added. “There is still a lot of uncertainty around all this and until there is clarity, we expect the gold market and precious metals markets more generally to remain very nervous.” Philippe Gijsels, chief technique officer at BNP Paribas Fortis, instructed CNBC on Friday that he was extra bullish than ever on gold. His goal value for gold is $4,000 per ounce, however he believes that the steel could even exceed this value level. “The news on the tariffs on gold risks creating a market dislocation like copper,” Gijsels stated. “So volatility will increase, but we live more than ever in an uncertain world. In a world where the independence of the Fed lies in the balance and there are more questions about the long term sustainability of [government] debt, inflation will rise and we have to invest in real assets.” “I think [gold] could go still higher,” Gijsels added. “But indeed, it could be a rocky path.” Deutsche Bank’s Hseuh stated in his be aware on Friday that a lot of the trajectory for gold will depend on the intentions of the U.S. administration, which he argued stays “unclear.” “If their intentions are to stimulate investment in and expand domestic gold refining capacity, then they may well obstruct the ability of foreign gold refiners to meet the standards required for tariff exemption,” he stated. “Going further, they could even remove the tariff exemption for HTS code 7108.12.10, though this seems unlikely. Either of these actions would risk creating a bifurcated gold market whereby metal circulating amongst buyers and sellers in the US becomes divorced from the volume of metal similarly circulating outside the US.”