New York
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President Donald Trump and his financial group typically reply to considerations concerning the affordability disaster by touting how less expensive gasoline is than under his predecessor.
For the overwhelming majority of 2025, this was a legitimate bragging point for the White House.
Until now.
For the primary time for the reason that begin of Trump’s second time period, drivers are paying barely higher prices on the pump than they have been on the identical level final yr under former President Joe Biden.
In truth, Monday marked the eighth consecutive day the place the nationwide common is up on a year-over-year foundation, in response to AAA data shared with NCS.
It’s an enormous shift from earlier this yr, when gasoline was 30, 40 and even 50 cents cheaper than the identical level in 2024.
Although prices on the pump are nonetheless comparatively low and much from their historic peak in 2022, this development contradicts a key Trump speaking level and undermines considered one of his strongest arguments on affordability.
During a serious financial coverage speech in Miami on November 6, Trump claimed, “Gasoline prices have plummeted to the lowest in two decades.”
In actuality, gasoline prices have been averaging $3.08 a gallon — nowhere close to a multi-decade low and just some pennies cheaper than under Biden the yr earlier than.
During an interview on Fox News that aired final Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued, “Oil and gasoline prices are down substantially under President Trump — and that is really the key to affordability.”
Yet gasoline prices have been three cents higher on a year-over-year foundation that day.
Americans say there’s a disconnect between Trump’s rhetoric on prices and the truth they are experiencing.
According to a CBS News poll, 60% of Americans say Trump makes issues sound higher than they actually are in the case of prices and inflation.
Just 27% say Trump makes factor sound about as they actually are, whereas 13% say he makes them sound worse.
It’s one factor to decorate unclear or hard-to-quantify numbers like what number of trillions of {dollars} of international funding US officers have secured. It’s one other matter altogether to inform folks groceries are getting cheaper, or prices are plunging on the gasoline pump, when neither is true.
Gas prices are a extremely seen manner that many Americans view the price of residing. The spike to $5 per gallon after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 brought about an uproar and a political nightmare for the Biden administration.
Thankfully, drivers in some states are saving a bit on gasoline prices relative to final yr going into the driving-heavy Thanksgiving weekend..
Gas prices are considerably cheaper year-over-year in Colorado (24 cents), Wyoming (19 cents), Hawaii (12 cents), Wisconsin (12 cents), Maryland (9 cents) and North Dakota (9 cents), according to AAA.
However, common gasoline prices are additionally up considerably in some states, together with Oregon (27 cents), Alaska (26 cents), Washington (20 cents), California (16 cents), Idaho (16 cents), Arizona (14 cents), Michigan (9 cents) and Nevada (9 cents).
None of that is to say gasoline is pricey under Trump. It’s not.
In truth, GasBuddy initiatives the typical nationwide value for gasoline on Thanksgiving can be is $3.02 — tied for the bottom Thanksgiving value for the reason that pandemic despatched prices crashing in 2020. But the yr it’s tied with is 2024, so it’s not precisely one thing for the Trump administration to boast about.
“We’re basically in the same neighborhood as last year. It’s virtually the same price,” stated Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum evaluation at GasBuddy. “Policy hasn’t really done anything.”
But when adjusted for inflation, gasoline prices haven’t been this low-cost on Thanksgiving Day since 2016, excluding Covid, in response to GasBuddy.
“People don’t feel as bad about filling up their tank because they are making more money,” stated De Haan.
Some on Wall Street are betting that even cheaper prices are on the best way in 2026.
Oil provide is projected to extend sooner than demand subsequent yr.
Unless OPEC steps in to intervene, Brent crude oil will probably drop into the low $50s per barrel by the fourth quarter of subsequent yr and shut 2026 within the $40s, commodity strategists at JPMorgan Chase wrote in a analysis report printed Monday.
JPMorgan stated the “outlook worsens” in 2027, with a mounting surplus driving Brent to a median of simply $42 a barrel and sinking into the $30s by the tip of that yr.
The projected provide glut is so extreme that JPMorgan stated producers will “almost certainly” must make main changes by reducing output.
Tom Kloza, a veteran oil market analyst now at Gulf Oil, agrees that the outlook is favorable for gasoline prices subsequent yr.
“It’s an easy road in 2026. Everything points to a surplus of crude,” Kloza stated. “There are a lot of things Trump faces challenges on. This is not one of them. It may not be a lay-up, but it’s probably a free throw.”