The war in Iran is pushing up prices for already-strained farmers, with larger prices for fertilizer and power on prime of final 12 months’s tariffs. And the growing strain on American agriculture may result in even greater worth tags on the grocery retailer.
John Yeley, an Illinois farmer who grows corn and soybeans, mentioned prices for nitrogen — a key fertilizer element — are going up so quick that he can’t even get suppliers to decide to a worth forward of purchases.
“When I call a retailer right now … I could not get a price on any nitrogen source out there,” he mentioned.
The war has successfully blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a significant chokepoint by way of which one-fifth of the world’s oil and one-third of the world’s fertilizer cross. It’s a shock to the worldwide fertilizer provide as American farmers put together for the spring planting season, which might begin as early as March.
While most fertilizer used on US farms is made in North America, the rising price of pure fuel means American-made fertilizer will get more costly as nicely. The worth for imported urea, a crystallized type of nitrogen that powers a lot of the world’s farming, has risen by near a 3rd because the US and Israel attacked Iran, in keeping with FactSet.
Yeley informed NCS that because the war in Iran, just one provider has given him a quote for nitrogen prices; he normally makes use of a number of suppliers based mostly in numerous places.
The pressure on farmers may drive up grocery prices, which have been a big source of stress for hundreds of thousands of Americans for months. Even earlier than the war started, USDA economists projected that meals prices this 12 months would rise more than in 2024 or 2025.
“When farmers face supply shortages or major price increases, those impacts ripple through the entire food chain,” mentioned Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, at a press convention two weeks in the past.
The lay of the land
The war with Iran provides to monetary uncertainty for American farmers.
Even earlier than the battle, the price of nitrogenous fertilizer shot up by 22% from February 2025 to February 2026, in keeping with the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“The writing was on the wall that there was probably going to be an increase in fertilizer prices heading into the spring,” mentioned Josh Boxell, who grows corn and soybeans 50 miles north of Indianapolis.
Meanwhile, farmers aren’t making a lot of a revenue — if in any respect. The US-China commerce war closed off what had been one of many largest markets for American farmers, plunging the worth of their crops.
Josh Manske, who grows corn and soybeans in southwest Iowa, famous the large swings in the value of his crops following months of commerce negotiations. He mentioned the market is “just unsustainable” proper now.
It’s not only a decline in crop prices. Farming gear has gotten more costly over time, and the cost of diesel — which powers the equipment — has additionally elevated with the war in Iran.
Chad Hart, a crop market specialist and economics professor at Iowa State University, informed NCS that whereas the broader American economic system is on stable footing, “the agricultural economy’s been in a recession.” Hart pointed to low crop prices over the previous three years and rising farm bankruptcies following the pandemic.
The disaster in crops is so extreme that farmers actually lose money rising corn, oats, rice and different staples.
Yeley mentioned the combo of shrinking revenues and rising bills means farmers must tackle debt to remain afloat — a pattern that pushed farm debt to a record high in 2025.
Even as farmers earn much less for their crops, shoppers discover themselves paying more for groceries — a pattern that many economists attribute to America’s meals provide chain. And with the war in Iran, Americans may see higher prices for produce, meat and dairy aisles due to surging gasoline prices.
“The farmer’s really not seeing an increase in our goods sold, but everybody’s seeing the increase at the grocery stores,” Boxell mentioned.
For now, many farmers should depend on federal assist that got here from final 12 months’s tariff turmoil.
Over $7 billion of presidency help had been distributed to assist farmers climate the trade war and “elevated input costs,” the USDA mentioned in a press release to NCS. The funds began going out on February 28, the identical day the war with Iran started.
“The joke was that the check barely hit the farm before it went out the door to the fertilizer dealer,” mentioned Aaron Lehman, who grows quite a lot of cereals and serves because the president of the Iowa Farmers Union.
Boxell mentioned federal help is a “safety net” for him and different farmers. But he added: “It’s not going to fix the problem of net loss. It just kind of helps take a little bit of the edge off of the loss.”
When requested in regards to the rising price of fertilizer, the White House mentioned it will enable Venezuelan fertilizer to be imported to the United States. The regulation went into impact this month, however it’s unclear how a lot fertilizer Venezuela can produce or how a lot of it will come to the US.
Most farmers have bought fertilizer for the approaching planting season, however the disruptions to world fertilizer provide may final nicely into the long run.
“When we have to price fertilizer again, what is that gonna look like for signing for crop that’s going to be growing in the year 2027?” Manske requested.