We’re three weeks into the NFL season. It’s proper about that point when your prior convictions from a months-long offseason turn out to be fully ineffective and the information we get in the primary month of the season takes rather more precedence. Now, that’s to not say gamers you consider in who haven’t gotten it achieved can’t flip it round. As my buddy Sigmund Bloom from FootballGuys likes to say, “You can be right and wrong about a player in one season.”
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There continues to be hope however we’re on the level the place we have to regulate. The finest gamers in the sport, or these we anticipated to be on the prime, are not any exceptions. With three weeks of information in the financial institution, let’s re-rack the primary round to see who can be in and who can be out if drafted at the moment.
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Just as a reminder, here were the top-12 picks in Yahoo ADP over the summer:
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1.1 Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals
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1.2 Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons
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1.3 Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles
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1.4 Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions
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1.5 Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings
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1.6 CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys
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1.7 Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers
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1.8 Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens
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1.9 Nico Collins, WR, Texans
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1.10 Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions
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1.11 Malik Nabers, WR, Giants
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1.12 Ashton Jeanty, RB, Raiders
Who’s in
Locks
Rams WR Puka Nacua leads all flex-eligible gamers in fantasy factors (59) regardless of not scoring a receiving landing but. He did take a long term into the top zone in Week 2. The effectivity and utilization for Nacua has been outrageous via three video games. He’s been focused on 43.2% of his routes and averages 4.11 yards per route run. In protection of the summer season ADP (sixteenth total), he solely fell to the second round of drafts over issues about Matthew Stafford’s again amid fixed adverse studies. As lengthy as Stafford is out there, Nacua will simply print manufacturing in the Rams offense. That’s nonetheless an if state of affairs over the course of the season, however for proper now, I could make a sturdy case that Nacua needs to be ranked because the WR1 relaxation of season.
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Colts RB Jonathan Taylor has been the most important beneficiary of the Colts reworking into not simply a purposeful however a harmful offense with Daniel Jones below heart. I’m elevating my hand; I simply don’t suppose we talked sufficient about Taylor this offseason. I do know I actually fixated on which, if any, receiver would get a increase with Jones in the combination, however didn’t put sufficient emphasis on the truth that Taylor would see a rise in receiving manufacturing and goal-line possibilities if Anthony Richardson Sr. was eliminated. Taylor ranks fifth amongst working backs with an 81% share of his workforce’s touches and is one of three working backs with three-plus carries on the goal-line. If we had been to redraft at the moment, I’d strongly think about Taylor as the primary total choice.
We ought to discuss it
Bills RB James Cook is the opposite working again we simply didn’t discuss sufficient this summer season. I do know on the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast that we weren’t adverse on Cook, however he was simply type of there in the dialogue; by no means a precedence spotlight participant. That appears a little insane for a good, productive participant in an elite offense paired with Josh Allen. He’s a workhorse again who trails solely Taylor in fantasy manufacturing on the working again place. Cook leads all working backs with 4 carries on the aim line this season.
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Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is true alongside Nacua this season from an effectivity standpoint. Among broad receivers to run 60-plus routes this season, he’s the one different participant to be focused on 40% of his routes and clear 20% first downs per route run. The third-year receiver took a main step final season and has solely continued to get higher. I don’t see something fluky about his manufacturing. He has earned each bit of this and has glorious chemistry with Sam Darnold.
Who’s out
Locks
Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb is sadly going through a potential stint on IR with a high-ankle sprain. If he had been wholesome, he would have been in the dialog with another guys as my No. 1 total decide. I had him ranked because the clear WR2 going into the season, and he was delivering on that promise in the primary two weeks for an offense that should take to the air to cowl for a poor protection. If he solely misses 2-3 weeks, that’s no huge deal, however he wouldn’t be a first-round decide proper this second primarily based on the damage.
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Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty is the one first-rounder who has no place among the many top-12 choices proper now. I do know folks like to dunk on rookies who go too excessive and in the end fall brief, however little or no of this has to do with Jeanty’s play via three weeks. He’s gained 101% of his dashing yards after contact this season. No, that’s not a typo. The Raiders have allowed the fewest common yards earlier than contact per carry this season, because the run-blocking and total design of the offense have been a mess. The undeniable fact that the Raiders appear like a workforce that received’t rating many factors, has a dangerous protection and likewise seems intent on working Dylan Laube and Zamir White in on passing downs simply makes this a whole nightmare for fantasy. I didn’t have Jeanty as a top-12 decide heading into the season and I positively wouldn’t now.
We ought to discuss it
Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase being succesful of surviving the Jake Browning period was a rather more pleasing principle earlier than we watched what occurred in Week 3. Still, I’m prepared to hold onto how we noticed Browning pepper Chase with layup targets when he obtained in the sport in Week 2 over what Brian Flores did to the backup quarterback final week. Still, I wouldn’t argue with somebody who needs to raise a totally different wideout who really has his beginning quarterback over Chase as a top-12 receiver. I’m simply not fairly positive who that individual can be exterior of Nacua.
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Texans WR Nico Collins positively obtained off to a poor begin in Week 1 however has amassed 11 catches for 156 yards and two touchdowns since then. Yes, the Texans are a mess and the move safety is a huge challenge. But that was all true in 2024 when Collins was one of the most effective broad receivers in fantasy. He’s been focused on 29% of his routes run this yr and continues to be performing like an alpha. I’d in all probability nonetheless think about him a first rounder however I’d be prepared to listen to the argument of these wanting to leap ship.