The US’ high common made a secret, rushed go to to US Central Command headquarters in Florida late final month to be briefed in individual on plans for the US military to ship ground troops into Iran to forcibly seize its extremely enriched uranium, the important thing element needed to produce a nuclear weapon, two sources aware of the matter informed NCS.
The briefings have been so pressing and delicate that they required Gen. Dan Caine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to rush from a gathering of senior NATO officers in Brussels again throughout the Atlantic to Tampa, Florida, on May 19, the sources mentioned. The high-level and urgent nature of the briefings underscores how shut the administration got here to greenlighting the high-risk ground operation, sources mentioned.
A Joint Staff spokesperson declined to remark concerning the preparations for a possible operation.
Caine then briefed President Donald Trump on the choices for such an operation, one of many sources mentioned.
But Trump hit pause after being warned it will possible immediate extreme Iranian retaliation, extending the conflict and plunging the worldwide economic system into additional turmoil, the sources mentioned. Trump has additionally voiced concern concerning the potential for a significant number of US casualties, in accordance to sources aware of the matter.
The superior planning for the operation got here amid repeated statements by Trump that the US and Iran have been approaching an settlement to open the Strait of Hormuz and conclude negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. On Thursday Trump mentioned the US and Iran would quickly be signing a deal, doubtlessly over the weekend.
But the discussions round sending ground troops into Iran simply final month present how shut the US has come to huge escalation of the battle.
“Lots of risk,” one of many sources aware of the plans for the potential military operation mentioned, including it was not shocking Trump opted towards giving the military the inexperienced mild final month.
Tehran has additionally been plotting an financial “nuclear option” if negotiations with the US fail and the conflict resumes, three individuals aware of the matter informed NCS: getting the Houthis, the Iranians’ chief proxy pressure in Yemen, to shut the Bab-al-Mandab strait — a key waterway and international commerce chokepoint that has served as a delivery lifeline as the doorway to the Red Sea amid Iran’s months-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
A senior administration official responded to a request for remark from NCS on Friday with an inventory of phrases that Iran had allegedly agreed to as a part of negotiations, together with that its nuclear materials be destroyed and eliminated, its nuclear program dismantled, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a halt to Iran’s funding of terrorist proxy teams — and solely afterward wouldn’t it get sanctions aid.
Iran’s model of what it has agreed to could be very completely different, in accordance to Iranian state media, which mentioned Iran wouldn’t commit to ceding administration of the Strait of Hormuz and that any deal required the speedy launch of $24 billion of Iran’s frozen funds.
Securing Iran’s highly-enriched uranium stands out as one in every of Trump’s main goals that has not been completed to date, both by way of negotiations or military pressure.
While Trump has repeatedly dangled the likelihood that the US would possibly go in and forcibly seize the uranium, he’s been reluctant to transfer ahead with an operation that might lead to numerous US casualties — one thing he’s skeptical the American individuals would assist.
Speaking to Fox News about one other potential US military choice that may possible lead to excessive casualties — taking management of the Iranian oil export hub of Kharg Island — Trump mentioned Thursday that “I don’t know if America has the stomach for it.”
Despite the dangers, a mission to seize Iran’s enriched uranium — significantly the 970 pounds that it has highly concentrated to near-weapons grade — has not been taken off the desk totally.
Trump’s frustration has been rising as Iran has stalled in committing to a deal that may see the nation make important concessions on its nuclear program, together with willingly relinquishing its extremely enriched uranium stockpile. That stockpile is unfold out throughout a number of Iranian nuclear services, primarily the Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow complexes, and buried deep inside tunnels, sources informed NCS.
Nuclear consultants have expressed skepticism {that a} US military operation may even find and confirm all of the uranium, a lot much less safely and utterly take away it underneath hostile situations. The materials is believed to stay in fuel kind, because it was on the time of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s last verification in June 2025, NCS has reported.
Iran shut out worldwide nuclear inspectors the next month within the wake of joint US-Israel airstrikes on its services. Those strikes damaged nuclear facilities, but didn’t destroy the entire nuclear materials, leaving it in underground tunnels, NCS has reported.
IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi warned in a current interview that the prevailing stockpile may enable Iran to construct as many as 10 nuclear bombs, ought to it resolve to weaponize its program.
The US intelligence group can be assured it is aware of the place all of it’s thanks largely to steady overhead surveillance, in accordance to two sources. In addition to the extremely enriched uranium, Iran has important stockpiles of low-grade materials that could possibly be changed into a “dirty bomb” able to inflicting important harm, in accordance to a number of sources briefed on the problem. Thus far negotiations have centered on the extremely enriched uranium, which is nearer to weapons grade.
Physically securing the uranium would require a big US ground pressure, nevertheless, together with lots of of particular operators, NCS has reported.
“It would be insanely difficult to fish through those tunnels and all the barrels,” one supply mentioned. “We’d have to set up a massive presence. Essentially, we’d have to invade.”
US military commanders have decided that such an operation would fall between “High to Extreme” on the “Acceptable Level of Risk” for particular operations forces, in accordance to a supply aware of the steerage, which means the mission may lead to a big variety of American casualties, even when efficiently carried out.
If a ground operation to capture the uranium have been launched, the chance of financial harm from the closing of the Bab-al-Mandab strait, one of many outcomes intelligence assessments have warned about, could possibly be catastrophic to the world economic system.
One supply aware of current US intelligence assessments informed NCS it’s notable that the Houthis haven’t resumed large-scale assaults towards US or different European vessels, but have mentioned that any Israeli flagged or owned ships are truthful sport. Expanding the scope of potential targets past Israeli vessels would signify a critical escalation, the supply famous.
The Iranians have solely held again so removed from enlisting the Houthis to take that step, the sources mentioned, as a result of they understand it may derail ongoing peace talks.
But it stays a card Iran may play if the pursuit of a deal falls aside and the US resumes full fight operations — one thing Trump has been cautious to do.
Iran’s standing military has been considerably weakened, so the largest threat to US troops ought to Trump order an operation to extract the uranium would possible be booby-trapped tunnels the place the fabric is saved, in addition to surface-to-air and shoulder-fired missiles, the supply mentioned. Iran additionally retains a big proportion of its drone and ballistic missile stockpile, NCS has reported.
Caine and different military leaders have beforehand raised considerations concerning the scale, complexity and potential for US casualties that might consequence from an prolonged military operation towards Iran. He and others contained in the Pentagon additionally warned, prior to the US launching its conflict on Iran, {that a} protracted military marketing campaign would considerably impression US weapons stockpiles and military readiness.
Despite Trump’s previous feedback about taking the uranium, he was dismissive of the choice on Thursday in feedback from the Oval Office.
“Nobody’s getting close to it because it’s buried under a mountain.” Trump mentioned.