If anybody thought current revelations about Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner’s previous would give Democrats prompt readability about their occasion’s path ahead, they apparently have one other factor coming.
Since the revelations about extreme statements Platner made online and his tattoo featuring Nazi imagery, indicators have pointed to a drawn-out and arduous major course of for the 2026 race.
First, a ballot confirmed Platner with an enormous early lead on Maine Gov. Janet Mills within the major, 58%-24%, as of mid-October. The University of New Hampshire ballot was carried out nearly wholly earlier than the tattoo story broke, however the numbers have been outstanding. They recommended Platner had an actual base to work with — one that might make him a power even when it’s diminished.
And second, we’ve seen quite a few outstanding figures dig in on their Platner help — or not less than not ditch him. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont unapologetically stood by him. And Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut instructed NCS’s Jake Tapper on Sunday he seen Platner as “a human being who made mistakes, recognizes them, and is very open about it.”
It’s clear some Democrats view this because the time to have a long-overdue debate over the way forward for the occasion — one through which they don’t so simply dismiss candidates who excite voters however may need baggage.
And who may forgive them? After all, they’ve witnessed a Republican president in Donald Trump who virtually flaunts his baggage day by day. Why can’t Democrats attempt to emulate that? Why ought to they have to surrender on somebody, simply because — of their minds — of some Reddit posts and a tattoo whose Nazi hyperlinks Platner insists he didn’t perceive? (Reporting by NCS’s KFile final week undercut Platner’s claims he solely not too long ago realized the tattoo had Nazi origins.)
These are all legitimate debates for Democrats to have.
But additionally they gloss over loads of realities.
Candidates with baggage have finished poorly — after they’re not named Trump
The first is that, whereas Trump has succeeded regardless of loads of baggage, few candidates have been in a position to emulate his strategy. Indeed, the fates of such candidates largely counsel political gravity very a lot nonetheless applies to these not named Trump.
You solely want to have a look at the final two elections — 2022 and 2024. In 2022, a bunch of Trump-aligned and more-extreme candidates badly underperformed different, extra mainstream Republicans. Think Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano, Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters and Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker. It’s fairly doable that these sorts of candidates cost Republicans the Senate by dropping very winnable races.
Perhaps nowhere was this extra evident than in secretary of state races, the place practically the entire prominent election-deniers running lost. Whatever traction Trump has gotten together with his false claims of stolen elections, it didn’t appear to translate to different candidates.
The 2024 election was related, if much less pronounced as a result of Republicans did a greater job of weeding such candidates out. But even there, we noticed quite a few such candidates badly underperforming the top of the ticket, particularly on the GOP aspect — similar to Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake and North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson.
Some Democrats would possibly consider Platner is totally different from these candidates — both in his baggage or in his capacity to attach with voters. But simply think about the advertisements the place Republicans would be capable of use Platner’s personal phrases to have the ability to paint him as a communist and even an antifa supporter.
The second issue to emphasise is that the stakes in getting this proper are merely a lot increased for Democrats than they’re for Republicans in related circumstances.
Democrats have a considerably smaller margin for error in the case of profitable a Senate majority. Republicans may afford some unhealthy candidates who value them in key states; Democrats have to run the desk in states the place they’ve a shot, like Maine, to win a Senate majority in 2026. And the outcomes there may also say lots about their hopes to carry the Senate within the years to come back.
This is as a result of the Senate map has come to obviously favor Republicans.
Recent elections counsel there are about 25 bona-fide pink states, in contrast with about 19 bona-fide blue states. Trump has gained not less than half the states in all three of his campaigns, and as many as 30 and 31 states in his two victories. Joe Biden gained solely 25 states whilst he gained in a fairly decisive 2020 election.
That means Republicans are clear favorites in states comprising half of all Senate seats, whereas Democrats begin as favorites for about 38 seats.
If you’re dealing with math like that, it means you need to get issues proper in a blue-leaning state like Maine. You can’t afford to have a bunch of candidates like Masters, Walker and Lake.
If Democrats are to win the Senate in 2026, they in all probability have to win not simply in Maine, but additionally win each swing state and flip a seat in a pink state like Ohio.
And longtime Sen. Susan Collins of Maine has proved very troublesome to beat. Democratic opponent Sara Gideon in 2020 raised tens of tens of millions of {dollars} and led in most polls — solely to lose by 9 factors on Election Day. Collins gained that race though Trump misplaced the state by 9 factors.
It can be one factor to put such a heavy guess on a confirmed campaigner with a historical past of profitable and weathering storms — or to take action in a state the place you solely had an out of doors shot of victory within the first place.
But numerous liberals and Democrats are investing numerous hope and political capital in Platner. And they’re doing it regardless of loads of issues pointing them in the other way.
A working example is the KFile report from NCS’s Andrew Kaczynski that referred to as into query Platner’s protection that he solely not too long ago realized {that a} tattoo on his chest had Nazi origins.
Platner’s marketing campaign additionally seems to be going by way of some real internal struggles, together with the departures of high-profile figures.
And not less than some are cautioning that this isn’t the candidate to put such a guess on.
“I want Democrats to be on guard that we don’t offer a Diet Coke populism to MAGA’s Coca-Cola, including thinking that bigotry is populist,” Democratic Rep. Jake Auchincloss of Massachusetts told Politico. “It’s not. There are scores of dynamic, gritty candidates who don’t have antisemitic tattoos.”