Magnolia, Texas
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Ken Paxton could be the political equal of Teflon.
He’s survived beneath a cloud of controversy all 12 years he has served because the state’s legal professional normal. Republicans within the state House impeached him earlier than the Senate declined to remove him from workplace, authorities investigated him for securities fraud earlier than reaching a settlement, and his spouse – a state senator and longtime political adviser – accused him of adultery and filed for divorce final yr on “biblical grounds.”
He’s nonetheless main within the polls forward of the March 3 major for Texas’ Republican Senate nomination as he seeks to unseat incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, a longtime rival.
On the road is a key US Senate seat and probably the GOP majority. Paxton’s bid has worried national Republicans who suppose boosting him by the November midterms would value a whole lot of tens of millions of {dollars} and embolden Democrats who suppose he might be the proper opponent for them to interrupt a three-decade statewide shedding streak.
A aggressive race in Texas would essentially alter the midterm panorama. Democrats need to net four flipped seats to take control of the Senate in November, and their high targets now are North Carolina, Maine, Alaska and Ohio — all contests the place occasion leaders recruited a candidate who has received statewide earlier than.
Texas might give Democrats one other probability — and a few Democrats within the state consider Paxton would be extra susceptible this yr than Sen. Ted Cruz was when former US Rep. Beto O’Rourke came within 3 points of defeating him in 2018.
But it’s additionally a vastly costlier state. And for all the headlines about him, Paxton is a confirmed statewide winner.
Democrats who’ve run in opposition to Paxton prior to now stated the occasion ought to be cautious what it needs for.
“For every one of those Democrats who’s hoping for him to win, I hope they’re willing to invest hundreds of millions of dollars into the state to fight him,” stated Rochelle Garza, the Democratic nominee for legal professional normal in 2022, in a race Paxton received by practically 10 share factors. “I cannot underscore enough how dangerous it will be to have him as a senator from this state.”
Paxton’s document contains suing Democratic presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden roughly 150 occasions mixed, delighting conservatives who noticed him as among the many occasion’s most aggressive crusaders in opposition to federal overreach. He backed President Donald Trump’s false claims about voter fraud in 2020, unsuccessfully suing 4 swing states that Biden had received and asking the Supreme Court to dam their Electoral College votes from being counted.
Paxton has additionally benefitted from the backing of main Texas conservative energy brokers – significantly Tim Dunn, the oil and fuel magnate from Midland who has additionally aligned himself with Trump’s political and coverage operations. Dunn has poured tens of millions into backing Paxton prior to now and supported efforts to oust Republicans within the Texas House of Representatives who had voted to question him in 2024 primaries.
However, with this election, that seems to have modified: Political motion committees aligned with Dunn haven’t spent to assist Paxton. Paxton did get a doubtlessly vital enhance when Turning Point Action, the conservative nonprofit based by the late Charlie Kirk, endorsed him this month.
Paxton lags far behind Cornyn within the fundraising battle and has been swamped on the airwaves with $58.9 million of the $92.8 million complete in advertisements reserved up to now, in keeping with the monitoring agency AdImpact, being spent by teams supporting Cornyn. For Paxton, advert spending is a comparatively paltry $2.3 million.
As he rallied dozens of supporters Thursday evening northwest of Houston, Paxton urged Republican voters to disregard the onslaught of “these fake ads” presently blanketing the state’s airwaves, attacking his document.
“Trump went through the very same thing, and look where he’s at,” Paxton informed reporters Thursday after his rally at The Angry Elephant, a politics-themed bar and restaurant in Magnolia. “It’s going to be the same way for me.”
A current University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs ballot confirmed Paxton within the lead with 38% assist amongst probably GOP major voters, in comparison with 31% for Cornyn and 17% for US Rep. Wesley Hunt, with 12% undecided.
If no candidate tops 50% on March 3, the highest two finishers would transfer on to a May 26 major runoff.
Trump has not endorsed a candidate up to now.
As Republicans type by their three-way Senate major, Democrats are selecting between state Rep. James Talarico and US Rep. Jasmine Crockett within the Senate race.
They argue that even in deep-red Texas, the Senate seat is likelier to be in play if Republicans nominate Paxton moderately than Cornyn – identified for a extra impartial demeanor and a document of working with Democrats at the same time as he has angered some Trump supporters for difficult the president prior to now.
Garza, who’s now president of the Texas Civil Rights Project, an advocacy group, stated operating in opposition to Paxton means dealing with an opponent who “operates with absolute impunity.” She stated Paxton wouldn’t comply with debate her, however she believes “it did get under his skin” when her marketing campaign forged him as corrupt in ads.
“If you turn Texas, the whole country turns,” Garza stated. “I do think it’s an issue of investment. I also think it’s an issue of talking about who Ken Paxton really is: He’s a crook. He’s a thief. He’s a cheater. He’s only interested in his own power and staying in power so that he doesn’t go to jail.”
Paxton, for his half, informed reporters Thursday evening that confronted with investigations, “we overcame them all.”
“You can make up whatever you want to make up. The allegations are the allegations. But the truth is the truth,” he stated.
He additionally pointed to Trump being impeached twice and stated his personal impeachment within the state House – which Paxton survived as a result of the state Senate finally voted in opposition to convicting him – is just not a “disqualifying event.”
“What matters is what the people of Texas think, and they’ve been behind me from the beginning,” Paxton stated.
At The Angry Elephant – which makes a speciality of scorching canine just like the “Joe Biden ‘Shroom Dog” and the “Al Gore Frito Pie Dog” – Paxton devoted most of his stump speech Thursday evening to recounting his authorized battles in opposition to the Obama and Biden administrations.
“We were standing up for Texas. We were standing up for Constitution. We were standing up for the rest of the country,” Paxton stated, with a massive {photograph} of Richard Nixon campaigning in Philadelphia in 1968, in entrance of a “Nixon’s the one!” banner, displayed on the wall behind him.
Dawn Bednarz, a 57-year-old retiree who labored in particular training and attended Paxton’s occasion, stated she sees the legal professional normal as “a fighter.”
“They have thrown everything at him,” she stated. “He has fought for us. He has fought for the mothers, he’s fought for our children and he delivers results.”
Bednarz acknowledged that Paxton “is going to be controversial,” however she stated she has no issues about his electability.
“We need fighters now,” she stated. “My kids and my grandkids, if I ever get them – they need a shot at what I had, and they’re not going to have it with the way things are going.”
Sally, a retiree who wouldn’t share her final identify, citing privateness issues, stated she sees Paxton as extra consultant of her values than Cornyn and Hunt.
“I don’t always like his politics. I don’t always like his baggage,” she stated of Paxton. “But I want someone that votes the way we do.”
An hour earlier than Paxton’s Thursday evening occasion, at an early voting heart in close by Spring, electability was on the minds of a number of Republican voters who spoke with NCS.
Retirees William and Barbara Stringer, from The Woodlands, stated they like Paxton, however voted for Cornyn as a result of they worry Paxton would lose in November.
“I think he did a good job as attorney general, but he’s got a lot of baggage,” William Stringer stated.
“Too much baggage,” Barbara Stringer added.
Tommy Gober, a cybersecurity teacher who lives in The Woodlands, stated he was fascinated by electability and his want to “tone down some of the rhetoric” when he forged his poll for Hunt.
“He’s not the most moderate candidate, but I think he is more moderate” than Paxton, Gober stated of Hunt.
Connie, a retiree who stated she wouldn’t share her final identify due to privateness issues, additionally voted for Hunt – however stated “Ken Paxton was another one I would have went with. It was a toss-up.”
A deciding issue, she stated, was that she believes Hunt stands a higher probability of beating the winner of the Democratic major.
At The Angry Elephant, a lot of the crowd was strongly behind Paxton. But Paula Jones, who lives in Montgomery and works for her husband’s oil and fuel tools enterprise, arrived late and was disillusioned to seek out that Paxton had solely spoken for about quarter-hour and hadn’t addressed or taken any questions from the gang concerning the affair or corruption allegations he faces.
She stated she’d dominated out voting for Hunt after studying that he’d missed dozens of House votes this yr whereas campaigning for the Senate. But she does plan to vote within the Republican major and is deciding between Cornyn and Paxton.
She stated the controversies surrounding Paxton aren’t essentially dealbreakers.
“That’s a typical man. That’s a narcissistic man – and you know, our president may be a little like that too,” Jones stated, including that she’s a robust Trump supporter. “Those are usually the ones that are most successful when they set their minds to it, and they forget how to behave everywhere else at times. That doesn’t mean they’re not good for the job.”