If the previous decade was the “technology verification period” for China’s industrial area trade, then in 2026, the trade will formally enter the watershed 12 months of commercialization and scale – up.
On one hand, social capital and state – owned funds are pouring in at an accelerated tempo, and the secondary marketplace for outdated shares has out of the blue heated up. On the opposite hand, there are actual constraints such because the race for reusable rockets, the intensive networking of low – orbit satellite tv for pc constellations, and the tightening provide of launch pads.
Against the backdrop of the interweaving of a number of forces, China’s industrial area trade is transferring from the exploratory stage of “a hundred rockets taking off simultaneously” to a profound reshuffle centered round price, manufacturing capability, and supply capabilities.
Market Competes for Old Shares of Top Projects
“The popularity of the commercial space track has suddenly exploded recently. The investment shares of top commercial space companies have now become the focus of capital competition. Many investors from social capital and state – owned enterprises have frequently asked us whether we are selling the old shares of our projects,” Jiang Chun, a companion at Puhua Capital, which has beforehand invested in star industrial area initiatives similar to Zhenlei Technology, Galaxy Power, and Changguang Satellite, advised a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily.
Jiang Chun revealed that the concentrated inflow of social capital has shortly digested the prevailing shares of prime initiatives, and state – owned establishments are much more desirous to take part. Government – led funds from a number of areas have actively sought to attach with industrial area initiatives. Behind this are each industrial judgments and clear coverage steerage.
Against the backdrop of the continual development of the “Space Power” technique, the industrial area trade has been considered a strategic rising trade course. Many interviewed traders identified that for some state – owned capital, sustaining a sure allocation within the industrial area observe has progressively turn out to be a consensus selection.
Ding Yiting, a companion on the Tsinghua Alumni Seed Fund, additionally advised a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that the adjustments within the secondary marketplace for outdated shares have been notably apparent up to now 12 months. “Take Tianbing Technology as an example. The company has previously sold old shares, but when the market was generally cold in the previous two years, institutions were generally more cautious,” Ding Yiting stated. “Since the second half of 2025, the demand for taking over old shares has significantly increased, and many institutions have started to actively look for opportunities to enter the market.”
Ding Yiting has lengthy been involved concerning the industrial area area and has beforehand invested in a quantity of properly – recognized industrial area initiatives similar to Tianbing Technology, Tianyi Research Institute, Interstellar Development, and Mi Entropy. In her view, the above – talked about adjustments in capital enthusiasm usually are not pushed by a single issue: on one hand, the market’s understanding of prime industrial area corporations has progressively turn out to be clearer, and the funding targets have additional converged; alternatively, because the commercialization progress of some initiatives has turn out to be obvious, the danger urge for food on the capital facet has additionally been restored. Whether it’s instantly taking up outdated shares or making preparations within the Pre – IPO spherical, the quantity of taking part establishments has elevated considerably.
Behind the sudden improve in capital enthusiasm, an necessary influencing issue is the continual enchancment of coverage help for the industrial area trade. Since the “Medium – and Long – Term Development Plan for the National Civil Space Infrastructure (2015 – 2025)” first systematically supported social capital’s participation within the development of civil area infrastructure within the prime – degree planning in 2015, the industrial area trade has progressively accomplished the institutional preparation from “breaking the ice” to “taking shape”.
In latest years, this pattern has been additional strengthened. The authorities work reviews in 2024 and 2025 each proposed to “promote the cluster development of the commercial space industry”. The industrial area trade has formally entered the sequence of strategic rising industries which might be key to be promoted from a nurturing – sort trade.
What has essentially the most direct affect on the first market is the rules for industrial rocket corporations to use the fifth set of itemizing requirements on the Science and Technology Innovation Board issued on the finish of 2025. For the primary time, these tips present detailed specs for industrial rocket corporations to use the fifth set of itemizing requirements on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, opening up the home capital market channel for industrial area corporations which might be nonetheless within the crucial development stage and haven’t but achieved profitability.
This institutional association has considerably improved the lengthy – time period capital expectations of industrial area initiatives, permitting the market to make capital preparations prematurely primarily based on the evaluation of technological potential and strategic worth.
Against this background, the present warming of capital within the industrial area observe will not be pushed by brief – time period sentiment. Tang Jincao, the chairman of Shim Capital, who has lengthy centered on this area, analyzed to a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that in 2025, the first market’s consideration to the industrial area trade considerably elevated. The trade is shifting from the early stage of “spontaneous exploration” to a extra clearly “nationally – system – guided” stage. At the identical time, funds are displaying a pattern of concentrating on prime and arduous – know-how initiatives, and the differentiation of challenge valuations has intensified.
Public statistical knowledge exhibits that in 2025, the whole financing within the industrial area trade reached 18.6 billion yuan, a 12 months – on – 12 months improve of 32%; there have been a complete of 67 financing offers. Rocket manufacturing and satellite tv for pc purposes have been the principle areas attracting funds, and nationwide and native guiding funds have been the principle sources of “patient capital”.
Looking forward to 2026, Tang Jincao believes that the fundraising facet will profit from the continual leverage of the nationwide enterprise capital guiding fund and the enlargement of the fifth set of requirements on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. It is anticipated that the fundraising will improve 12 months – on – 12 months, and the participation of social capital is anticipated to additional improve.
On the funding facet, the main target might be on key areas similar to reusable rockets and satellite tv for pc payloads. The proportion of “investing early and in small companies” will improve, and single – funding selections will turn out to be extra rational; on the administration facet, penetrating supervision and submit – funding empowerment might be strengthened, and a efficiency analysis system appropriate for science and know-how innovation might be established; on the exit facet, with the IPOs of a number of prime corporations, the trail of “technology – orders – listing – reinvestment” might be opened up, and the exit channels of the non-public fairness secondary market and regional fairness markets might be broadened concurrently.
The Commercial Space Rocket Launch Industry Will Accelerate the Reshuffle
Currently, the itemizing course of of industrial area rocket corporations has considerably accelerated. At least 10 industrial area corporations have launched their IPO processes, amongst which 5 corporations, together with LandSpace, iSpace, CAS Space, Galaxy Power, and Tianbing Technology, give attention to the launch automobile area.
On the final day of 2025, LandSpace’s IPO course of made the most recent progress. Its utility for IPO on the Science and Technology Innovation Board was accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and it plans to boost 5.5 billion yuan.
A reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily observed that every one the above – talked about corporations speeding for IPO have been established between 2015 and 2019. This was the interval when nationwide insurance policies inspired non-public enterprises to develop the industrial area trade, and the industrial area area started to develop quickly.
This group of corporations has gone by means of the entire cycle of know-how verification, engineering trial – and – error, and industrial exploration, and has progressively reached the crucial stage of “realizing large – scale capabilities”. The fast improve within the frequency of rocket launches is essentially the most intuitive proof of the improved capabilities of the principle members within the trade. Public knowledge exhibits that in 2025, the quantity of home industrial area rocket launches exceeded 92, a 12 months – on – 12 months improve of about 48%.
For instance, LandSpace has established itself with liquid oxygen methane rocket know-how. Its Zhuque – 2 is the primary home liquid oxygen methane rocket to efficiently enter orbit, and Zhuque – 3 has additionally achieved the know-how verification of reusable rockets; the success charge of Galaxy Power’s Ceres – 1 rocket launches exceeds 90%, and it received 12 launch orders for home low – orbit satellite tv for pc networking in 2025; iSpace’s Hyperbola – 1 sequence of rockets have accomplished a complete of 11 launches, and its prospects embody industrial satellite tv for pc corporations and analysis establishments; Orient Space focuses on the analysis and growth of giant – scale industrial rockets, and its Gravity – 1 rocket efficiently accomplished its maiden flight in January 2024; OneSpace, an early participant within the home industrial rocket area, focuses on the fast – response launch observe with stable – gas rockets.
As the constellation networking enters the substantial acceleration stage, new – mannequin rockets make their maiden flights in a concentrated method and are put into utility, and new launch pads and industrial launch capabilities are progressively launched. It is anticipated that the annual quantity of rocket launches in China will exceed 100 in 2026.
The improve in launch scale additionally means a basic change within the competitors logic, and thus the trade reshuffle has arrived. An govt of a prime industrial area firm analyzed to a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that the breakthrough in rocket restoration know-how is accelerating. Whoever can obtain the conventional restoration of rockets first and cut back the launch price to lower than $10,000 per kilogram will be capable of management the pricing energy; presently, some core parts of home industrial rockets nonetheless depend on imports. Whoever can obtain unbiased substitution may also win in phrases of manufacturing capability and value; secondly, the development of low – orbit satellite tv for pc constellations is an extended – time period challenge. Only corporations that may signal lengthy – time period launch agreements with giant – scale satellite tv for pc corporations can receive secure money flows.
He additional stated that there isn’t a consensus within the trade on the quantity of corporations that may finally stand out, however it’s usually believed that the quantity of surviving prime corporations might be restricted. “In the rocket field, due to the differences in technological characteristics and market demand, the number of top companies is expected to be 5 – 6. This judgment is not a subjective assumption but a conclusion based on industry development laws and the competitive advantages of top companies.”
A related particular person in cost of LandSpace additionally beforehand advised a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that the long run growth pattern of the industrial area trade will turn out to be an increasing number of concentrated. “Because this industry is actually very sensitive to price, if a company can achieve a significant breakthrough in price first, then there will be few survival opportunities left for other companies. The final concentration is not the result of voluntary distribution but the result of market competition.“
However, the ultimate end result has not arrived but. Jiang Chun analyzed to a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that the manufacturing capability and technological capabilities of present prime corporations within the rocket area could not totally meet the launch necessities of the 2 main satellite tv for pc constellations. “The industry pattern is not yet fully solidified, and there are still opportunities for new players to enter the market and overtake on the curve.“
2026: A Year of Intensive Assault for Reusable Rockets
The industrial area observe stays extremely common, and rocket launches, because the core half of the economic chain, have naturally turn out to be the main target of consideration.
The main price of a rocket lies within the engine and the rocket physique, with the price of the primary – stage rocket physique accounting for greater than 70%. Therefore, it’s the key to lowering the launch price. Currently, liquid reusable rockets have turn out to be the core growth course for fixing the issue of reusable rockets.
The final purpose of reusable rockets is to scale back prices. Zhang Yujiao, the secretary of the board of LandSpace, beforehand advised a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that the reuse price of Zhuque – 3 exhibits the traits of “high initial investment and marginal decline in the later stage”. After 20 reuses, the price is mainly solely the marginal price, primarily together with the manufacturing price of the second – stage rocket and the upkeep price of the primary – stage rocket. According to LandSpace’s plan, the final word purpose of Zhuque – 3 is to scale back the unit launch price to lower than 20,000 yuan per kilogram.
In actuality, there may be nonetheless a niche of about 4 – 6 occasions within the general carrying capability of rockets between China and the United States, and the price hole can also be instantly mirrored within the industrial quotes.
An insider within the industrial area trade additionally advised a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that there are apparent variations within the present home satellite tv for pc launch charges. The mainstream industrial launch quotes are concentrated between 50,000 and 100,000 yuan per kilogram, however for some small – scale rockets or particular – orbit launches, the price can nonetheless attain 150,000 yuan per kilogram. Calculated on this manner, the launch price of a 500 – kilogram satellite tv for pc might attain as much as 75 million yuan.
Under such price strain, reusable rockets have progressively turn out to be a should – reply query for figuring out an organization’s survival area.
However, the know-how of reusable rockets in China remains to be within the catching – up stage. Tian Yaosi, the Party secretary of LandSpace, beforehand advised a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that corporations such because the industrial rocket firm of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, LandSpace, Galaxy Power, and CAS Space have all laid out the analysis and growth of reusable rockets, however the progress of every firm varies, and the technical routes they undertake are additionally completely different.
Entering 2026, reusable rockets are dealing with a “year of intensive assault”: 11 fashions are competing on the identical stage. There usually are not solely the continual efforts of Zhuque – 3 and Long March 12A but in addition the maiden flights of 8 new rockets similar to Long March 12B and Pallas – 1. The reusable configuration of Tianlong – 3 may also be part of the restoration battle within the second half of the 12 months.
According to the R & D plans launched by a number of corporations, China may have a number of reusable rockets plan to hold out flight and restoration missions earlier than the primary half of 2026.
Dong Kai, the deputy chief engineer of Zhuque – 3, lately clearly said that “for Zhuque – 3, the maiden flight is just the beginning. We have adjusted our plan and hope to achieve successful recovery by the middle of 2026. Once successful, the three rockets we have produced will be quickly put into iteration.”
Galaxy Power additionally confirmed to a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that every one the big – scale floor assessments of Pallas – 1 have been accomplished, and it plans to conduct its maiden flight across the Spring Festival.
At the identical time, the reusable rockets of the “national team” are additionally accelerating. Starting from 2026, no less than 4 reusable rockets will successively perform maiden flight missions.
At the lately concluded Wenchang Space Forum, Guan Song, the overall supervisor of China Rocket, introduced that the reusable Long March 10B rocket is anticipated to satisfy the circumstances for its maiden flight in April 2026. In the long run, this mannequin of rocket will, along with Long March 10A and Long March 10C, perform launch missions on the unique launch pads No. 3 and No. 4 on the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site.
Long March 10A is a mannequin deliberate by the First Academy of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation. It is matched with the B and C fashions and is positioned as a medium – capability reusable rocket; Long March 10C is a big – capability reusable mannequin of the First Academy of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation; the 5 – meter – class reusable rocket of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation is developed by the company as a complete and is anticipated to make its maiden flight within the first half of 2026.
However, at a time when the know-how is in a interval of intensive breakthroughs, the constraints on the infrastructure facet have turn out to be a bottleneck. As essentially the most essential underlying useful resource, the quantity, specialization, and turnover effectivity of launch pads have turn out to be one of the core bottlenecks limiting the frequency of industrial rocket launches and the discount of prices.
As of July 2025, there have been 18 industrial area launch pads in operation at main launch websites throughout the nation, and one other 7 have been underneath development. These launch pads are primarily concentrated in nationwide – degree satellite tv for pc launch facilities similar to Wenchang, Jiuquan, and Taiyuan, which give precedence to the development of nationwide area initiatives. Therefore, the launch home windows for industrial rockets are comparatively tight, with a mean queuing time of as much as one month.
Against the backdrop of the intensive networking stage of low – orbit satellite tv for pc constellations, this contradiction has been additional amplified. The complete quantity of satellites deliberate for a number of initiatives represented by China SatNet and the G60 Qianfan Constellation has exceeded 26,000. There is a direct battle between the excessive – frequency launch demand and the restricted and scheduled launch pads.
To handle this hole, new launch websites and pads are being deliberate and constructed. For instance, the second – part challenge of the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site is constructing launch pads No. 3 and No. 4, and it’s deliberate to type a sample of “two phases, four pads” by the top of 2026. By then, the annual launch capability is anticipated to exceed 60 occasions. In addition, industrial launch websites in locations similar to Ningbo in Zhejiang, Liangshan in Sichuan, and Yangjiang in Guangdong are additionally within the preparatory growth stage. However, there