Reuters
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China on Wednesday reported a powerful export run in 2025 with a record surplus of practically $1.2 trillion, as producers braced for 3 extra years of a Trump administration set on slowing the manufacturing powerhouse by shifting US orders to different markets.
Beijing’s resilience to renewed tariff tensions since President Donald Trump returned to the White House final January has emboldened Chinese firms to shift their focus to Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America to offset US duties.
With Beijing trying to exports to counteract a protracted property stoop and sluggish home demand, the record-shattering surplus dangers additional unsettling economies involved about China’s commerce practices and overcapacity, in addition to their overreliance on key Chinese merchandise.
The manufacturing powerhouse’s full-year commerce surplus got here in at $1.189 trillion – a determine on par with the GDP of a top-20 financial system globally like Saudi Arabia – customs knowledge confirmed on Wednesday, having damaged the trillion-dollar ceiling for the primary time in November.
“The momentum for global trade growth looks to be insufficient, and the external environment for China’s foreign trade development remains severe and complex,” Wang Jun, a vice minister at China’s customs administration, stated at a press briefing on Wednesday.
However, “with more diversified trading partners, (China’s) ability to withstand risks has been significantly enhanced,” Wang stated, including that “the fundamentals for China’s foreign trade remains solid.”
Outbound shipments from the world’s second-biggest financial system grew 6.6% in worth phrases year-on-year in December, in contrast with a 5.9% improve in November. Economists polled by Reuters had anticipated a 3.0% improve.
Imports have been up 5.7%, after a 1.9% bump the month earlier and likewise beat a forecast for a 0.9% uptick.
“Strong export growth helps to mitigate the weak domestic demand,” stated Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
“Combined with the booming stock market and stable US-China relations, the government is likely to keep the macro policy stance unchanged at least in Q1.”
China’s yuan held regular following the upbeat knowledge at the same time as fairness buyers welcomed the forecast-beating numbers. The benchmark Shanghai Composite index and blue-chip CSI300 index each rose greater than 1% in morning offers.
The Asian financial juggernaut’s month-to-month commerce surpluses exceeded $100 billion seven instances final yr, partially underpinned by a weakened yuan, up from simply as soon as in 2024, underscoring that Trump’s actions have barely dented China’s broader commerce with the broader world even when he has curbed US-bound shipments.
Exports to the US slumped 20% in greenback phrases in 2025, whereas imports from the world’s prime financial system have been down 14.6%. Chinese factories managed to make inroads in different markets, with exports to Africa leaping 25.8% and people to the ASEAN bloc of Southeast Asian nations up 13.4%. EU-bound shipments grew 8.4%.
Trump on Tuesday stated he thinks China can open its markets to American items, after threatening a day earlier to slap a 25% tariff on international locations that commerce with Iran, risking reopening previous wounds with Beijing, Tehran’s greatest buying and selling companion.
Economists anticipate China to proceed gaining world market share this yr, helped by Chinese companies establishing abroad manufacturing hubs that present lower-tariff entry to the United States and the European Union, in addition to by robust demand for lower-grade chips and different electronics.
A flagship of Beijing’s world industrial ambitions, China’s auto trade noticed total exports leap 19.4% to five.79 million automobiles final yr, with pure EV shipments up 48.8%. China would probably stay the world’s prime auto exporter for a 3rd yr after first superseding Japan in 2023.
Beijing, nonetheless, has proven indicators of recognizing it should average its industrial exports whether it is to maintain its success, and the management has been more and more cognizant and vocal about imbalances in China’s financial system and the picture downside outsized exports are inflicting.
After November’s trillion-dollar surplus knowledge, Chinese Premier Li Qiang was quoted final week on nationwide tv as calling for “proactively expanding imports and promoting the balanced development of imports and exports.”
The nation additionally scrapped subsidy-like export tax rebates for its photo voltaic trade, a long-standing level of friction with EU states.
Lawmakers final month handed revisions to the Foreign Trade Law after two, moderately than the same old three readings, in a sign to members of a serious trans-Pacific commerce pact that China is ready to shift from industrial subsidies and in direction of freer, extra open commerce.
Despite the year-long truce on tariffs that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping struck in late October, U.S. duties of 47.5% on Chinese items are nicely above the roughly 35% stage analysts say permits Chinese companies to export to the U.S. at a revenue.