NFL betting usually rules the roost on the American sports wagering landscape.
But College Football Playoff quarterfinal odds are giving the mighty shield a run for its money at the moment — particularly in the Miami vs. Ohio State Cotton Bowl matchup, which kicks off the quarterfinals on Dec. 31, and the Alabama vs. Indiana Rose Bowl showdown on Jan. 1.
“These standalone College Football Playoff games really rival the NFL games,” Caesars Sports vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said.
Mucklow serves up his insights on College Football Playoff quarterfinal odds for all four matchups.
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Bettors Backing Buckeyes
Ohio State is 12-1 straight up (SU), though that lone loss came in its last outing. The Buckeyes were 3.5-point favorites vs. Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game and fell short 13-10.
Still, with a 10-2-1 mark against the spread (ATS), Ohio State has been one of the best bets all season in college football. Only Texas Tech (11-2 ATS) is better at covering the number.
So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the public betting masses are all over No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Miami (11-2 SU/8-5 ATS) in the Cotton Bowl, for a 7:30 p.m. ET New Year’s Eve kickoff.
“Ohio State is a bigger loser for us on the spread than any of the NFL Week 17 games. And there’s still [five days] of betting to return,” Mucklow mentioned.
After Miami’s 10-3 first-round win at No. 7 Texas A&M, Caesars Sports opened the Buckeyes as 7.5-point favorites. That quantity sprinted to Buckeyes -10, with early bettors desperate to pile on Ohio State.
The Hurricanes really noticed sharp motion at +10, so Caesars adjusted Monday to Ohio State -9.5.
Backing Off ‘Bama
No. 9 Alabama (11-3 SU/8-5-1 ATS) has the SEC pedigree, which is usually attractive to the betting masses. But No. 1 Indiana (13-0 SU/8-5 ATS) has been an offensive juggernaut much of the season, and bettors like to back a good offense.
And even though the Hoosiers didn’t put up factors of their final outing, they did beat defending nationwide champion Ohio State within the Big Ten title recreation. That carries some weight, as effectively, for a 4 p.m. ET Rose Bowl conflict on New Year’s Day.
Indiana opened as a 6-point favourite and moved out to -7 in brief order. Mucklow mentioned sharp motion on Alabama +7 led Caesars to decrease Indiana to -6.5. But a seamless flood of Indiana motion from the plenty moved the Hoosiers as much as -7 once more.
“Bettors are all over Indiana big time. That’s bigger than our Ohio State decision,” Mucklow mentioned. “I hate to say it, but we’re Alabama fans by a good distance.”
That mentioned, Mucklow famous Caesars has one angle working in its favor.
“Indiana has not really been in this position before. Alabama has been there, done that,” he mentioned.
Short Spread
Oddsmakers imagine No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech is probably the most aggressive matchup in CFP quarterfinal odds. The Ducks opened as 1.5-point favorites and are as much as -2 vs. the Red Raiders, for a midday ET New Year’s Day begin within the Orange Bowl.
Oregon (12-1 SU/9-4 ATS) already has a CFP recreation beneath its belt, coasting previous No. 12 James Madison 51-34. But the Ducks fell wanting protecting as enormous 20.5-point house favorites.
As famous above, Texas Tech (12-1 SU/11-2 ATS) is the perfect spread-covering group within the nation this season. The Red Raiders have been resting since a 34-7 rout of BYU as 12.5-point favorites within the Big 12 Championship Game on Dec. 6.
Bettors are leaning towards the Ducks, as of Friday afternoon.
“Oregon is a small loser for us, nothing drastic. There’s not much of a difference between these two teams,” Mucklow mentioned. “I think this game will see two-way action. It’s only a 2-point spread.”
Sweet Rematch
One matchup in College Football Playoff quarterfinal odds is definitely a rematch from the common season. In Week 8, Ole Miss and Georgia performed a thriller in Athens, Ga.
Ole Miss — then beneath Lane Kiffin, who has since left for LSU — led 35-26 late within the third quarter. But Georgia did the remainder of the scoring in a 43-35 victory, barely protecting as a 7-point house favourite.
Now, No. 3 Georgia (12-1 SU/6-7 ATS) and No. 6 Ole Miss (12-1 SU/8-5 ATS) meet on a impartial area on the Sugar Bowl. The unfold is just like the primary assembly, with the Bulldogs opening -6 and now as much as -6.5 for this 8 p.m. ET kickoff on New Year’s Day.
“All the money is for Georgia, which doesn’t surprise me,” Mucklow mentioned. “You’ve given Kirby Smart three weeks to prepare for this game.”
Money Talks
Mucklow additionally ran by way of rating the 4 CFP quarterfinals based mostly on the amount of cash every recreation is seeing to this point.
“Alabama-Indiana is No. 1 by a distance. Then it’s Miami-Ohio State,” Mucklow mentioned. “Then there’s a pretty significant gap to Ole Miss-Georgia, and another big gap to Oregon-Texas Tech. That’s the least popular of the four, by a distance.”
Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting house. He’s based mostly in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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