It’s a query that has been requested for a really very long time now: Can Democrats lastly finish their decadeslong statewide dropping streak in Texas?
And each few years, the reply comes again the identical: No. Lucy has yanked the football away, but once more. Texas Democrats nonetheless haven’t gained a statewide race since 1994 or a Senate race since 1988, the year before James Talarico was born.
But it’s a query that’s clearly reliable in 2026. That’s as a result of Democrats obtained their coveted opponent in the state’s US Senate race: the baggage-ridden Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. (Paxton drubbed Sen. John Cornyn in a runoff Tuesday after a late endorsement from President Donald Trump.)
“I got a message to Republicans in Texas and nationwide: Do not take this general election for granted,” GOP Sen. Ted Cruz said on a new episode of his podcast. “It is easy to say it’s Texas, it’s red, we’re going to win — and I believe we are going to win — but I also think the Democrat nominee James Talarico is a dangerous candidate.”
Indeed, the information recommend Democrats’ chances are nearly as good as — or higher than — ever in the final three many years. History and logic recommend it’s nonetheless price being circumspect.
First, the fundamentals.
The case for Paxton being a problematic candidate for Republicans is self-evident, whereas the case for Talarico being a robust candidate for Democrats makes theoretical sense however is untested.
NCS’s Patrick Svitek recaps some of Paxton’s not-so-greatest hits:
As for Talarico, it stays to be seen how he’ll play.
Democrats love that he speaks brazenly and comfortably about his Christian religion and hope he could make a play for conservative-leaning spiritual voters.
But he additionally has one thing of a Kamala Harris drawback. That’s as a result of, like Harris, he said some rather “woke” things in latest years when that was extra en vogue on the left — issues like that there are six organic sexes and that “God is nonbinary.” He has known as the American flag a “complicated symbol.” And whereas Republicans have falsely accused Talarico of being a vegan, he did in 2022 speak about decreasing meat consumption and mentioned he was operating a “non-meat” marketing campaign for the state House.
Those sorts of feedback shouldn’t be undersold in this race. They could possibly be actual hurdles with culturally conservative voters — alerts to them that perhaps Talarico, regardless of all his speak about his religion in God, is much from certainly one of them.
But no less than for now, there are some actual causes for Democrats to be optimistic.
That’s as a result of the atmosphere is more and more good for his or her celebration, and the information again up the concept that Paxton could possibly be a drag on Republicans.
The nationwide “generic ballot” retains trending towards Democrats, to the purpose that some latest polls show them with a double-digit lead. And with Trump’s approval score falling decrease than ever earlier than, it’s more and more conceivable the atmosphere could possibly be higher for Democrats than in 2018, when Democrat Beto O’Rourke misplaced to GOP Sen. Ted Cruz by simply 2.6 factors.
And crucially for Texas, Trump has lost huge ground with Latino voters, who appear to be they’ll revert to a robust Democratic constituency after trending Republican in latest years.
The polls of this particular race are additionally fairly good for Democrats proper now.
An April University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll really confirmed Talarico main Paxton by eight factors amongst registered voters, 42%-34%. That’s whilst GOP Gov. Greg Abbott led his race by 6 — a whopping 14-point hole between Paxton’s and Abbott’s performances.
A more moderen Texas Southern University/YouGov poll confirmed a tied Senate race amongst registered voters, 45%-45%. But once more, Paxton underperformed different statewide candidates like Abbott (who once more led by 6).
These are the sorts of polls you mainly by no means see in Texas. In truth, even O’Rourke — Democrats’ most profitable Senate candidate in many years — polled persistently behind Cruz by all of 2018.
Paxton has additionally proved he underperforms different Republicans in precise elections, no less than considerably. In 2022, he notched the smallest margin of any statewide Texas Republican that cycle, successful by 9 factors whilst others gained by between 11 and 15 factors.
A deeper dive into the brand new polls additionally suggests Paxton has work to do in patching issues up after a brutal GOP nominating contest.
For occasion, whereas exit polls confirmed O’Rourke ran about even with Cruz amongst unbiased voters (50%-47%) in 2018, Talarico at the moment leads amongst them by greater than 20 factors with unbiased registered voters in each polls talked about above.
Both polls additionally present Talarico’s picture is considerably higher than Paxton’s. While Talarico’s internet favorable score is 10-11 factors constructive, Paxton’s is between 6 and 9 factors unfavourable.
The University of Texas ballot really confirmed just one in 10 independents appreciated Paxton, whereas half disliked him. It additionally confirmed Paxton successful simply 63% of Republicans, with 11% going for Talarico and 20% undecided.
Paxton did higher with Republicans in the Texas Southern ballot, taking 85% of them. But that was nonetheless lower than Talarico’s 96% of Democrats.
But the opposite manner to have a look at all that’s that Paxton has loads of upside proper now.
One factor you’ll discover from these identical polls is that Paxton wasn’t doing a lot worse than Cornyn was. He did perhaps 1 or 2 factors worse on common, regardless that Cornyn was supposedly the far more broadly acceptable candidate.
If you’re a Republican, you have a look at that and assume perhaps the present polls are only a momentary reflection of the brutal GOP nominating contest. It was one of the most expensive in history, in any case, and the runoff lasted greater than two months.
We do have a tendency to overestimate how a lot brutal primaries really matter by the point the final election rolls round. And the polls recommend most of the undecided voters in this race lean to the best — and thus they may in the end come dwelling to Paxton and the GOP.
History additionally suggests voters have a tendency to behave in a extra partisan vogue in Senate races than governor’s races as a result of a senator is a vote for one aspect or the opposite. So even when a big chunk of conservative-leaning Texans don’t like Paxton, they may vote for him to foreclose a Democratic-majority Senate.
And to be clear, this race may matter considerably in that majority math. Democrats want to win no less than two states that Trump carried by double digits in 2024 in order to flip the Senate.
Alaska and Ohio is perhaps the higher alternatives, given the confirmed candidates they’ve operating in these races.
But Texas is now fairly clearly on the map, no less than.