National political leaders are making frantic, last-ditch efforts in a number of states to redraw more US House districts forward of subsequent yr’s midterms.
But their ambitions face large political and procedural obstacles and in some instances, open revolt from state lawmakers pushing again against pressure from the highest leaders in their personal events.
Consider Kansas, the place Republican lawmakers are making an attempt to power a particular session and be a part of the wave of states endeavor once-rare, mid-decade redistricting to achieve an edge within the 2026 congressional elections. GOP leaders this week have been working to safe the signatures from two-thirds of lawmakers in each chambers wanted to bypass the state’s Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly and proceed. On the road: the US House seat at the moment held by four-term Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids.
“I think it’s terrible for democracy,” mentioned Kansas state Rep. Mark Schreiber, one of many remaining Republican holdouts, in an interview with NCS. “It’s fairly simple: Redistricting was meant to accommodate changes in the population, based on the decennial census, and that’s it.”
“This mid-cycle redistricting is being done only for political purposes, in this case to maintain a Republican majority in the US House,” Schreiber added. “I don’t think that’s an appropriate use.”
Democrats even have confronted resistance as they ramp up their redistricting marketing campaign. In Maryland, for example, a high Democratic lawmaker has balked at taking over map-drawing, warning it’ll solely escalate the continuing redistricting arms race and assist Republicans ultimately. National Democrats are searching for modifications to maps in no less than three different states: New York, Virginia and Illinois.
The president’s get together usually loses floor in midterm elections. If Democrats achieve three seats subsequent yr, they are going to win the House and get hold of the facility to block elements of President Donald Trump’s agenda. But Republicans have extra alternatives than Democrats do to form the election consequence via congressional mapmaking.
So far, GOP lawmakers have redrawn seats in three states – Texas, Missouri and North Carolina – to add a total of seven potential seats to the Republican column.
Trump’s political operation instigated the political arms race this yr after they persuaded Texas to undertake redistricting and create 5 further GOP-friendly seats. Next week, California voters will determine whether or not to counter that and approve five additional Democratic-friendly seats, representing the most important tranche of seats Democrats can safe via a map change in a single state.
The states now eyeing new maps signify “the third-tier opportunities for redistricting,” mentioned Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections, an impartial political e-newsletter. But, he mentioned, “in order to squeeze an advantage, you have to go piecemeal once you get beyond the big hitters. For Democrats, especially, California is all they have.”
Virginia, a purple state the place Democrats maintain the majorities in each chambers of the legislature, is doubtlessly the most important remaining redistricting prize for the get together. Democrats at the moment maintain six of the state’s 11 seats within the US House, and an aggressive map redraw may doubtlessly give the get together 9 or 10 seats.
But it’ll take a monthslong effort to get there as lawmakers deal with a number of hurdles to bypass the redistricting course of the state established 5 years in the past. Under present regulation, the facility to redistrict rests with a bipartisan redistricting fee created by voters via a constitutional modification.
First, Democrats should go language to amend the state structure earlier than Tuesday’s elections for governor, lieutenant governor, lawyer normal and all 100 seats within the House of Delegates. Then, it have to be accepted once more subsequent yr in a second legislative session earlier than voters have their say in a statewide referendum.
Virginia Republicans have signaled that they intend to mount authorized challenges to any motion by the legislature, arguing that Democrats have already got run afoul of a requirement to go the proposed constitutional modification earlier than the election since early voting is underway.
The US House’s high Democrat, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, is working to persuade Illinois lawmakers to eke out an extra seat there, regardless of objections from the pinnacle of the state Senate’s Black caucus. In Jeffries’ residence state of New York, a new lawsuit by a number one Democratic-aligned elections agency takes intention on the sole Republican-held seat in New York City.
After assembly with Jeffries this week, Illinois House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch mentioned in a press release that “all options must remain on the table to protect our democracy.”
But no less than one Democrat within the state – state Sen. Willie Preston, who heads the Black caucus in his chamber – has opposed it, arguing the brand new map dangers diluting Black political energy within the state. Preston is operating for a US House seat now held by Rep. Robin Kelly. Kelly is operating for an open US Senate seat to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin.
“Black Democrats have given our all to our party – the answer to fighting back against Trump’s efforts to crush Black political power cannot be diluting Black political power,” Preston mentioned in assertion.
In deep-blue Maryland, the state Senate President William Ferguson has publicly opposed map-drawing concentrating on the one Republican within the state’s congressional delegation. But different Democrats, together with Jeffries, insisted Wednesday that redistricting stays a viable possibility within the state.
For Republicans, essentially the most instant battleground is Indiana, the place GOP Gov. Mike Braun has introduced a particular legislative session beginning subsequent week to deal with a redistricting plan that might presumably yield two extra seats for his get together – though it’s unsure that the plan has sufficient assist amongst Republicans within the state Senate majority to succeed.
Some Indiana Republicans have been amongst these resisting Trump’s strikes, regardless of important lobbying by the president and two visits to the state by Vice President JD Vance. Braun, a staunch Trump ally, has known as legislators again to the statehouse to begin engaged on a redraw subsequent week.
But on the identical day that Braun introduced the legislative session, Molly Swigart, a spokeswoman for the highest Republican within the state Senate, mentioned there nonetheless weren’t sufficient Republican votes to assist redistricting in that chamber.
Asked Wednesday for an replace, Swigart responded: “I do not have anything new to share.”
Prominent Republicans within the state, together with former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, have opposed the redistricting. Under the present map, the GOP holds seven of the state’s 9 US House seats.
In a recent Washington Post column, Daniels mentioned the present map is truthful and urged Republicans within the Hoosier State to proceed to resist. “Someone has to lead in climbing out of this mudhole,” he wrote.
“We generally pride ourselves in doing what’s right, not what’s easy,” Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist and former Indiana lawmaker, informed NCS. “We take our time. We weigh things.”
In one other Republican-controlled state, Louisiana lawmakers this week took steps that might give their get together an edge subsequent yr. Legislators voted to delay the state’s 2026 major elections by a month to give them extra time to draw new congressional strains if the US Supreme Court decides a redistricting case within the state’s favor.
‘An incredible Pandora’s field’
While Republicans have structural benefits that permit them to rack up extra seats via redistricting than Democrats can, Rubashkin of Inside Elections mentioned the ultimate consequence of the continuing redistricting battle is unclear, significantly if subsequent yr turns into a wave election for Democrats, akin to 2018 midterm elections when the get together gained greater than 40 House seats throughout Trump’s first time period.
“If the partisan, national environment is favorable enough to one party or the other, you cannot redistrict your way into the majority,” he mentioned.
However, Rubashkin added, the redistricting push now underway seemingly has modified US politics, by opening “an incredible Pandora’s box … that will persist long after this election cycle. I don’t see what will stop states that have the capacity from simply redrawing every two years.”