In Russian statements surrounding the newest spherical of peace talks in Abu Dhabi, a brand new catchphrase is rising: “the Anchorage Formula.”
“The territorial question, which is part of the ‘Anchorage Formula,’ of course carries particular significance for the Russian side,” stated Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Monday, including, “our negotiators continue to defend our position.”
In feedback two days earlier, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov additionally harked again to that bilateral summit in Alaska final August, saying Moscow was wanting for a peace deal “that fully corresponds to the fundamental understandings reached by the presidents of Russia and the US during their meeting in Anchorage.”
But right here’s the factor: That much-touted summit didn’t lead to any type of concrete “understandings.” There was no discuss in any way, till now, of an “Anchorage Formula.” President Donald Trump was very clear, as he stood side-by-side with Vladimir Putin after they emerged from their August talks in Anchorage, that “there’s no deal until there’s a deal.”
In truth, that summit appeared initially to have backfired for Russia, with Trump rising more and more annoyed with Moscow’s intransigence. Less than per week later he posted on Truth Social what appeared to be an argument in favor of Ukraine attacking targets in Russia. “It is very hard, if not impossible, to win a war without attacking an invader’s country,” he wrote.
Later that fall it emerged that Trump had elevated intelligence sharing with Ukraine to assist it goal Russian vitality websites. And lastly, in late October, when plans for one other bilateral summit have been shelved (once more as a result of the Kremlin appeared unwilling to compromise), the White House slapped sanctions on Russia’s largest oil giants, Lukoil and Rosneft – a step even the Biden administration had balked at.
It wasn’t till the emergence of the 28-point peace plan in November, a doc that contained lots of Moscow’s maximalist calls for, that the matter of Alaska began to resurface. As US-Ukraine talks aimed toward modifying that plan ramped up, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned any amended deal would want to mirror “the spirit and letter of Anchorage.”
By repeatedly referring to this non-existent framework, Russia is wanting to “exploit the lack of clarity about the outcome of the August 2025 US-Russian Alaska Summit to claim that the summit achieved a joint US-Russian understanding and agreement to end the war in Ukraine, and present the agreement in ways that benefit Russia – including by obfuscating Russia’s own efforts to impede the peace process,” wrote analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based assume tank, in a put up on Saturday. In different phrases, if Russia could make individuals consider a deal of kinds was accomplished in Alaska, that makes it look much less obstinate and provides credibility to its declare that it’s Ukraine standing in the means of peace.
“They’re literally constructing reality on the fly, Orwell-style,” wrote Ukrainian warfare reporter Illia Ponomarenko on X, “counting on the average consumer of Russian mass propaganda having the attention span of a guppy [small fish].” Note it was lower than a month in the past that Moscow accused Ukraine, with out proof, of attacking considered one of Putin’s residences, simply as US-Ukraine talks once more appeared to be making progress. The CIA later assessed this assault hadn’t occurred.
When requested on Friday by a reporter whether or not the “Anchorage Formula” implied Russian management over all of Donbas, Peskov’s reply was revealing. “We don’t want to publicly delve into the details of the provisions being discussed. I cannot and will not discuss the precise nature of the ‘Anchorage Formula’; it would be impractical.”
White House officers appeared to recommend over the weekend that Russia’s place behind the scenes in talks is much less intransigent than it’s in public. “They usually say their maximalist demands, and then they allow their private negotiating teams to, you know, to work with the flexibility,” stated one official. When requested particularly what Russia means by the “Anchorage Formula,” and whether or not it exists, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly stated: “You’ll have to ask them”.
It’s arduous to discern from Moscow’s habits if the fictional “formula” is a results of confidence or desperation. After virtually 4 years of full-scale warfare, its forces have managed to occupy solely about 20% of Ukrainian territory (up from 7% pre-2022) in accordance to the Institute for the Study of War, at a price of shut to 1.5 million lifeless or injured troopers, in accordance to a current estimate from the UK Ministry of Defence. Last week NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte estimated 30,000 Russians have been killed in Ukraine in December alone; Trump’s pledge to finish the warfare in 24 hours is now a distant reminiscence.
The previous couple of weeks may additionally have examined the Kremlin’s hopes that it will probably merely play for time, and finally both Russian assaults or strain from the White House will trigger Ukraine to capitulate. Trump’s January power-grabs have severely dented Moscow’s pursuits – the elevated crackdown on the shadow fleet, the lack of a key ally in Latin America with the seize of Venezuelan chief Nicolas Maduro, and now the prospect of a US oil blockade in opposition to one other ally, Cuba.
And but, Trump’s staff have been in Moscow once more final week, delivering all the niceties and photograph ops Putin wants to burnish his coveted superpower picture.
So, no matter the motivation, Russia’s need to remind individuals of the red-carpet remedy Putin acquired in Alaska reveals one factor very clearly: US engagement stays a robust propaganda software.
NCS’s Kit Maher contributed to this report.