It’s not Lamar Jackson’s fault the Baltimore Ravens are 1-1.
The NFL MVP co-favorite has been even more otherworldly than usual. He’s got an absurd 136.6 passer rating (his career average is 102.6), six passing touchdowns, one rushing score and no turnovers.
That’s about as good as it gets.
And yet, Baltimore’s defense couldn’t protect a 40-25 Week 1 lead in Buffalo, as Josh Allen and the Bills scored three times in the final four minutes and Matt Prater kicked a game-winning field goal to secure a 41-40 victory.
We’ve seen this movie before.
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“Baltimore desperately needs to win a big playoff game,” one professional bettor told me. “These regular-season accolades and highlight-reel plays are great. Now win a meaningful game against Buffalo or Kansas City.“
Harsh, but fair.
All the Ravens can do now is continue to flourish in the regular season and hope to strike down their foes in January and ideally, February. Until then, they can only take care of business against the teams in front of them.
Up next, Baltimore hosts the Detroit Lions on Monday night at the Crab Cake. The Westgate Las Vegas opened Baltimore -6, O/U 52 and the market currently sits -4.5 and 53.
So we’ve seen support for the ‘dog and the Over so far.
“Baltimore is my highest rated team in the league,” legendary Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White told me. “I’m very high on Detroit, too. They’re only a point off Baltimore in my numbers. Then you add in the home field.”
White’s projected final score: Baltimore 35, Detroit 31.
Prepare for fireworks.
How will Lamar Jackson and the Ravens fare against Detroit in Week 3?
Elsewhere, the Los Angeles Rams return to Philadelphia for a playoff rematch against the world champion Eagles, after Vic Fangio’s defense kept Matthew Stafford out of the end zone on the game’s final drive in the snow.
Bettors remember how close it was.
“The next Eagles bet I take will be the first,” one longtime bookmaker cracked. “We’re seeing a ton of support for Los Angeles. They love betting Stafford catching points. It happened a ton last season.”
The Rams went 7-4 against the spread as a pup last year, and they’re a midweek darling at most Las Vegas sportsbooks. Philadelphia opened -4.5, and we’re seeing some shops down to -3.5 with some -3 offshore.
“Money talks,” the bookmaker said.
It’s interesting to see a move against the Birds, considering they handled Dallas without Jalen Carter and then Kansas City on the road, while L.A. trailed at halftime against both Houston and Tennessee.
Rams head coach Sean McVay deserves credit for halftime adjustments, but Philly is a different beast.
Lastly, NFL favorites continue to smash straight up.
My friend Evan Abrams from the Action Network dropped a stat earlier this week that’s alarming if you’re a moneyline ‘dog player. NFL favorites at -4 or higher are 12-0 (SU) this year and 64-7 dating back to Week 13 last year.
That’s a near impossible 90.1% clip.
“It would be nice if any of these underdogs win outright,” the bookmaker said. “We’re stuck on a ton of moneyline parlays already, and it won’t stop. Here’s looking at you, Cleveland, New Orleans, Tennessee, both New York teams.
“Don’t make me beg.”
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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