Taipei, Taiwan
In the face of rising Chinese navy aggression, Taiwan has elevated protection spending, prolonged obligatory conscription and revamped its fight workout routines, signaling its willpower to battle off a potential invasion.
Some of its folks, like 51-year-old Nelson Yeh, have been making completely different plans.
Three years in the past, Yeh determined to open a checking account in Singapore and transfer one-fifth of his wealth abroad. Then he utilized for citizenship in Turkey, and 9 months later obtained secondary passports for himself and his spouse.
If Taiwan got here underneath assault, he reasoned, he would be capable of entry emergency funds and use his Turkish papers to journey freely.
“The likelihood of this is low. But if it does happen then the losses would be huge, so I feel like I should have a plan B,” stated Yeh, who works in finance in Taipei.
Now with the US engaged in a spiraling conflict within the Middle East, Yeh stated international uncertainty over the fallout has additional undermined his religion within the present world order.
“We are seeing the unilateral world start to crumble, and no one great power can dictate the situation,” he stated.
Taiwan has grappled for many years with the potential for navy battle with China. But Beijing underneath its chief Xi Jinping has more adamantly pressed its declare of sovereignty over the self-ruled island, launching live-fire drills and simulated blockades to discourage “separatist forces.”
In preparation, some Taiwanese have began studying expertise like first support and marksmanship, whereas civil protection organizations have offered emergency response coaching. At the identical time, immigration consultants stated the political uncertainty has spurred extra inquiries about shifting abroad.
“Basically my thinking is that if I go abroad, I need money and a passport,” Yeh stated. “Anything else beyond that is outside of my control.”
Yeh stated he received the concept to carry money abroad from pals in Hong Kong, the place tens of hundreds of locals have voted with their toes and left the finance hub throughout a widespread national security crackdown.
Seeing China’s Communist Party exert larger management over the previous British colony, he anxious that Taiwan might sometime face the identical destiny. During Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests in 2019, he typically heard the slogan “Today Hong Kong, Tomorrow Taiwan.”
A variation on the chorus, “Ukraine Today, Taiwan Tomorrow,” returned after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, emphasizing the island’s vulnerability to an analogous assault by China.
There’s little indication that China intends imminent military action. While Xi has threatened to take Taiwan by pressure if mandatory, such a step might immediate US retaliation and result in a pricey battle that will devastate international commerce.
Nonetheless, Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te has proposed a $40 billion invoice that features one of many largest arms offers ever between the US and Taiwan. As the proposal has encountered native political opposition and protests from Beijing, US senators visited Taiwan this week to encourage its legislators to succeed in an settlement.
Pessimism over domestic and worldwide politics is one cause why extra Taiwanese folks are buying property in Thailand, stated Edward Lai, a Taiwanese actual property agent working in Bangkok. He stated his firm has been on a hiring spree to maintain up with the inflow of inquiries, 70% of which are from Taiwanese anxious about geopolitics, he estimates.
“Nowadays, my friends in Taiwan often tell me that they have a very strong feeling that they are about to lose their country,” he stated.
Kuo, a 67-year-old retiree, began shopping for property in Cambodia a decade in the past, initially as an funding, then as a precaution in case of battle with China. He requested to make use of solely his final identify to talk candidly about his political opinions, which he fears might draw backlash.
Kuo believes the query of unification will inevitably be resolved throughout Xi’s tenure, however is anxious Xi will go for a extra aggressive strategy, akin to a blockade or invasion, as relations between Beijing and Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party have deteriorated. While he’s the one particular person in his household with a Cambodian passport, he hopes others can acquire momentary visas in the event that they flee, or apply for passports to different international locations prematurely.
“As long as you can get out, you have time to observe the situation and await the outcome. No matter who wins or loses, if the winner has good intentions toward us, we will slowly find the opportunity to return,” he stated.
Watching the Russia-Ukraine battle, protection analysts stated one of many largest takeaways for Taiwan is the significance of civil resistance to the island’s safety.
“It’s not just a domestic issue. It also carries international consequences,” stated Charles Wu, an assistant professor of political science on the University of South Alabama. “If China now sees that Taiwanese people are basically giving up their will to fight, then maybe an invasion is unnecessary. Maybe they could buy it out.”
Wu, who makes a speciality of how public opinion impacts navy operations, stated the perceived willingness of Taiwanese folks to battle or flee might vastly affect Chinese and US coverage in direction of Taiwan.
“It’s important that when I go home to my colleagues in the Senate, that I’m able to say to them, they’re carrying their weight. They’re picking up their end of the stick, and they’re doing their part, not overly dependent on us in the United States,” Senator John Curtis, one of many officers who got here to Taiwan to indicate assist for elevated protection spending, instructed reporters in Taipei.
But figuring out what share of the inhabitants would keep and battle is sophisticated. There is little complete information on the variety of folks acquiring secondary passports or opening financial institution accounts abroad. Opinions may also range extensively based mostly on polling strategies, in addition to folks’s confidence in Taiwan’s personal protection capabilities or navy assist from the US.
The US has a vested curiosity in Taiwan’s safety, as a geographically strategic and democratically aligned accomplice in countering China’s rise. Under US laws, Washington is obligated to sell Taiwan weapons for self-defense, however President Donald Trump has – in keeping with longstanding US coverage – declined to say whether or not he would ship navy help if China attacked. Trump and Xi are anticipated to debate Taiwan when Trump visits Beijing in May.
An evaluation led by Wu confirmed that the proportion of people that say they are prepared to defend Taiwan has ranged between 15% and 80% since 2017. In a 2025 survey funded by Duke University, which left the query extra open-ended, 37% stated they’d “go with the flow,” 17% stated they’d assist the federal government’s determination, 11% stated they’d flee Taiwan, and 20% stated they’d resist or be a part of the navy.
In addition to extending obligatory navy service from 4 months to 1 yr, the Taiwanese authorities has made efforts to ready the broader population for conflict. In 2024, Taiwan created a committee to boost civil protection and has begun issuing official guides and holding drills on what to do in catastrophe eventualities.
While there’s presently no signal of a major exodus, consultants stated Taiwanese are searching for a way of safety.
When Metropolitan Immigration Consulting Group opened in Taiwan twenty years in the past, purchasers principally needed to to migrate to English-speaking international locations, normal supervisor Kenny Chiang stated. But up to now 5 years, a rising quantity have opted for citizenship by funding from locations together with St. Lucia, Vanuatu and the United Arab Emirates.
“Before, immigration meant getting a green card from the US, or a Maple Leaf card from Canada,” stated Chiang. “Now everyone’s goal with immigration is to distribute risk, distribute assets and diversify identification.”
However, Mark Lin, supervisor at one other immigration consultancy Luby, stated that whereas inquiries have doubled over the previous two years on geopolitical worries, leaving throughout a battle wouldn’t be straightforward.
“People want to get a quick passport, in case something happens,” he stated. “But if something were to happen, you can’t even get on a plane and move out, right? You have to have some sort of military assistance.”
That concern has some Taiwanese contemplating Malaysia as a back-up, stated Jessica Chang, an schooling guide who helps college students and their households analysis pleasant visa insurance policies.
“If there’s war, the first place that will be bombed first will be the airport, right? But Malaysia is somewhere that you can just take boats,” she stated.
Other choices she’s mentioned with purchasers are Portugal and Malta. Still, most of her college students are set on attending US universities – so long as there’s an excellent probability of staying after commencement.
Kathy Chen, a 33-year-old Taiwanese information scientist, obtained her grasp’s diploma from the University of Southern California 5 years in the past, and has been in search of alternatives to to migrate ever since.
While she doesn’t imagine warfare will occur quickly, the prospect of a Chinese takeover has strengthened her resolve. Last yr, she relocated to San Francisco together with her husband, who can also be Taiwanese and whose firm sponsored his work visa.
“I just want to avoid any risk of being a Chinese person,” stated Chen, who utilized for a inexperienced card this yr. “That would be the worst case for me.”