Analysis: After ‘progress’ in talks to end Ukraine war, US diplomacy faces Kremlin test


Inside the Witkoff Group’s unique Shell Bay personal members membership in South Florida, the delegations from Washington and Kyiv confronted one another for “tough but very constructive” negotiations over lashings of Ukrainian Borsch, a beetroot and cabbage soup which one attendee instructed me was “very rich with meat.”

But its serving, together with Holubtsi, conventional meat and cabbage rolls, was seen as a welcome nod to Ukrainian tradition – a deft diplomatic gesture because the US tries to coax Ukraine in the direction of compromising on a peace cope with Russia.

A supply with direct data of the Florida talks – involving US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner – tells NCS the intensive negotiations have been a “step forward” and “built on progress in Geneva,” the place a primary spherical of discussions on US proposals to end the Russian battle in Ukraine have been held final week.

“It would be very premature to say we finalized everything here as a lot of things have still to be done,” the supply instructed NCS.

“But the meeting was very focused and the most problematic aspects of the peace proposals were discussed in detail,” the supply added, hinting that tentative progress in some areas could possibly be made.

One of probably the most “problematic aspects” of the unique 28-point US peace proposal was the stipulation for Ukraine to formally surrender its aspiration, enshrined in its structure, to be part of NATO – a key Russian demand to end the battle and one thing Ukrainian officers proceed to reject.

However, the NCS supply now says negotiators have mentioned a potential state of affairs in which Ukraine would successfully be barred from becoming a member of the US-led Western army alliance through preparations that might have to be negotiated instantly between NATO member states and Moscow.

“Ukraine will not be pushed to officially, in the legal sense, reject this aspiration,” the supply instructed NCS.

“But if the United States has something to agree upon with Russia bilaterally, or if Russia wants to receive some assurances from NATO multilaterally, then this is not engaging Ukraine in the decision-making process,” the supply added.

A last resolution on what could be a extremely delicate compromise – seemingly to be unpopular amongst NATO states – has not but been taken and would in the end be made by the Ukrainian president, the supply pressured to NCS.

But it means that, as US-Ukraine negotiations proceed, and as Witkoff travels to Moscow for talks on the Kremlin, inventive options to tiptoe round Kyiv’s crimson strains are being explored.

Another a type of problematic areas is the Kremlin demand, which additionally discovered its method into the 28-point US peace proposal, for Ukraine to give up territory in the Donbas area of Eastern Ukraine that has been annexed, however not but conquered, by Russia.

The US plan recommended the area, which features a “fortress belt” of closely defended cities and cities seen as essential to Ukrainian safety, grow to be a Russian demilitarized zone, which Moscow would administer however not deploy army forces into.

The supply, who has direct data of the negotiations, tells NCS that discussions are additionally progressing on this challenge – some of the controversial in the negotiations.

“The idea to give up the control to Russians, where it would significantly weaken Ukraine’s defense and make further potential aggression more likely to happen and significantly decrease Ukraine’s capability, this is out of the scope,” the supply instructed NCS.

“But that doesn’t mean that there are no potential ways of preserving the constitutional provisions and keeping Ukraine’s security,” the supply added.

However, the supply refused to focus on what particular choices are below dialogue, saying the problem is “too sensitive.”

“I really believe that if it becomes public, we may ruin the potential solution,” the supply instructed NCS.

There could also be one other spoiler unmasked in the times forward too: a Kremlin that has to this point refused to curb any of its maximalist calls for to subjugate Ukraine earlier than ending the battle.

Amid hints of Ukrainian compromises being cast by US negotiators, the following and larger problem in America’s shuttle diplomacy could also be getting Russia to settle for them.



Sources

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