For the second time in six months, voters in a blue state have signed off on an aggressively gerrymandered US House map to assist Democrats struggle again in a redistricting battle launched by President Donald Trump and Republicans.
Virginia voters on Tuesday approved a referendum that would internet Democrats a further 4 seats in the 2026 midterm elections and permit them to win 10 of the state’s 11 congressional districts. California voters accepted an analogous measure final 12 months.
The Virginia measure was passing 51%-49% with 97% of the vote in.
The vote makes the tit-for-tat redistricting battle that’s performed out over the previous a number of months one thing near a draw. But Republicans might nonetheless come out with a slight benefit if Florida passes a brand new map in the coming weeks.
Below are some takeaways from the vote.
(*5*)
Close to even outcomes, however one huge state stays
Republicans started this redistricting battle by launching an aggressive – and historically rare – mid-decade gerrymander in Texas final 12 months.
Democrats had loads to worry.
Republicans merely had more power to draw new red districts. And Democrats wanted voters to log out on their largest alternatives in states like California and Virginia – which was no sure bet.
But due to a collection of breaks for Democrats and people voters delivering for them, the battle is one thing near a draw proper now.
NCS’s redistricting tracker reveals Democrats have drawn themselves 10 potential seats and Republicans 9.
(This is a considerably inexact science, given some districts may solely very modestly favor one aspect or the different, although, and a few of the GOP good points particularly could possibly be doubtful.)
Of course, one state continues to be excellent. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is predicted to ask his state legislature to move a brand new map with as many as five new Republican-leaning districts.
Some on the proper are involved that getting too aggressive in Florida might backfire in what’s seeking to be an more and more powerful setting for Republicans in the 2026 election.
Florida’s structure prohibits gerrymandering on partisan grounds. But the state Supreme Court earlier this decade weakened that restriction.
What’s clear is that it appears this battle hasn’t landed Republicans close to the benefit they may have imagined it will.
And the GOP’s razor-thin majority can’t financial institution on new maps saving it in what must be a troublesome 2026 election.
Virginia’s Supreme Court nonetheless wants to contemplate unresolved litigation over the map.
The courtroom beforehand dominated that Tuesday’s election might proceed, but it surely stated it will take into account the full deserves of the case if voters handed the measure.
At difficulty is a pair of claims. One is whether or not Virginia Democrats violated procedural guidelines when including the proposal to a particular session. The different is whether or not the poll language was too deceptive.
Obviously, if the state Supreme Court had been to strike down the new map, it will be a bonus Republicans nationally.
Democrats received this vote. But for a celebration that has change into used to big over-performances since the 2024 presidential election, this one was considerably much less so.
In truth, the remaining margin was lower than Kamala Harris’s almost six-point margin of victory in the 2024 presidential race. It wasn’t near the 15-point margin by which Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger was elected in November.
It was additionally far much less resounding than California’s vote in November.
There are doubtless just a few causes for that.
California’s vote – the referendum handed by a powerful 64%-36% margin – was doubtless extra lopsided partially as a result of it’s only a bluer state; Harris received it by 20 factors. But that doesn’t account for all of the distinction.
A extra sturdy GOP effort to struggle the poll measure in Virginia than in California together with the passage of time mixed to make issues slightly extra fascinating.
While the redistricting wars had been very heated forward of California’s November vote, they’ve cooled considerably in current months.
That contains Indiana Republican state senators standing up to Trump and rejecting a brand new map again in December, and it included Maryland’s Democratic-controlled state legislature declining to try to draw a new blue district.
As for the incontrovertible fact that Democrats didn’t over-perform like they’ve change into accustomed to? That’s doubtless largely as a result of it’s often troublesome to get individuals to vote in favor of gerrymandering.
It’s not the similar as a regular Democrat-versus-Republican election. Prior to this 12 months, voters fairly reliably sided against gerrymandering at any time when the difficulty was placed on the poll.
Indeed, the incontrovertible fact that two states have now successfully voted in favor of gerrymanders in the final six months is fairly outstanding, provided that historical past.
Democrats in all probability shouldn’t panic. But Republicans did present some struggle.
But it was all the time going to be powerful for the “no” aspect to recover from the hump. That’s largely as a result of it relied on some actual rhetorical gymnastics.
That was maybe finest exemplified by Trump’s feedback on Monday evening.
“I don’t know if you know what gerrymandering is, but it’s not good,” Trump stated.
That’s a fairly laughable remark from a president who pushed so arduous for his aspect to get so aggressive with its personal gerrymandering – and really obtained the ball rolling on the gerrymandering battle by pressuring Texas Republicans.
For Democrats, they only needed to persuade their voters that this was about leveling the enjoying discipline and combating again in opposition to a really actual MAGA energy seize.
For Republicans, they needed to argue gerrymandering was unhealthy regardless of … nicely, not having made that argument when Texas was doing it.
Say what you’ll about the legitimacy of Virginia Democrats combating again; the map they’ve drawn is audacious.
Not solely does it imply Democrats might win greater than 90% of districts in a state that Harris received with simply 52% of the vote. But it extends 5 districts out from the closely blue Washington, DC, suburbs manner out into rural Virginia in an effort to accomplish its process.
It’s absolutely considered one of the most drastic maps on the market.
Democrats unfold their voters out a lot that they may lose a few of these districts if the setting in future elections favors Republicans. Five of them favored Harris by lower than 10 factors.
Which looks like it’s about all that may forestall such redraws in the future.
The lesson of the present redistricting battle seems to be that you just take no matter benefit you may, at any time when and wherever you may. And about the solely factor proscribing you is voters rejecting it or the risk of it backfiring in the future.
The query now could be whether or not we simply see a continuing collection of mid-decade redraws at any time when it appears handy, whether or not we get one thing of a détente when Trump is gone, or if the insanity may even result in some momentum behind some bipartisan nationwide redistricting reform.
Because proper now, the largest affect of the 2025-26 redistricting wars has been damage to democracy reasonably than any partisan profit.