China has undertaken an enormous growth of sites linked to missile production since 2020, bolstering its potential to probably deter the US navy and assert its dominance in the area, a new NCS evaluation of satellite tv for pc photos, maps and authorities notices reveals.
The historic build-up stands in stark distinction to the United States’ own supply struggles.
More than 60% of 136 amenities related to missile production or the Chinese navy’s rocket power, which controls China’s nuclear arsenal, confirmed indicators of growth in satellite tv for pc photos.
The sites, which embrace factories in addition to analysis and testing facilities, have expanded by greater than 21 million sq. toes (over 2 million sq. meters) of constructed ground area between early 2020 and late 2025. New towers, bunkers and berms in keeping with weapons growth have cropped up in satellite tv for pc imagery of those rising sites. In some circumstances, missile components may even be seen in the photographs.
“This is China positioning itself as a global superpower. We’re in the initial phases of a new arms race,” stated William Alberque, a senior adjunct fellow on the Pacific Forum and former NATO director of arms management. “China is already sprinting and they’re preparing for a marathon.”
The knowledge paints an image of an pressing drive to develop capability for new and extra subtle missiles. Several of the production amenities that NCS analyzed have swiftly changed villages and farmland, rising by tens of 1000’s of sq. toes in the previous 5 years.
NCS recognized the sites – together with over a dozen beforehand unreported amenities – by analyzing publicly accessible data on China’s two main state-owned protection contractors and their subsidiaries, and then cross-checking the findings with geospatial evaluation.
Since coming to energy in 2012, Chinese chief Xi Jinping has poured billions of {dollars} into shopping for and upgrading navy gear, as a part of a clearly outlined ambition to quickly remodel the nation’s armed providers, often called the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), right into a “world-class” combating power.
Xi has additionally constructed up the PLA Rocket Force (PLARF), an elite department overseeing China’s fast-expanding arsenal of nuclear and ballistic missiles. He has described the power as a “core of strategic deterrence, a strategic buttress to the country’s position as a major power, and a cornerstone on which to build national security.”
China’s missile production amenities provide practically all branches of its navy, which is the biggest armed forces in the world with over 2 million lively personnel.
NCS has requested remark from China’s protection ministry on the findings.
US President Donald Trump took a whirlwind tour of East Asia final week, assembly with leaders together with Xi. Trade discussions dominated these conferences, however there have been indicators of rising tensions over Beijing’s surging typical and nuclear arsenal. In the run-up to the talks with the Chinese president, Trump instructed the Pentagon to resume nuclear testing on an “equal basis” with China and Russia, ushering in a significant shift in decades-long US coverage.
Beijing and Moscow haven’t performed nuclear explosive exams in over 25 years. But Washington has been watching intently as each nations proceed to develop and check superior weapons able to delivering nuclear warheads.
China, in the meantime, is rising its nuclear weapon stockpile quicker than every other nation, growing its arsenal by about 100 new warheads yearly since 2023, in response to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in June, although its whole quantity stays far behind that of the US and Russia that collectively account for 90% of the world’s arsenal, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists.
Satellite photos present dramatic development of China’s navy production sites
Weapons consultants say that the projectiles produced by expanded amenities examined by NCS can be a key element of any potential tried Chinese navy takeover of Taiwan, the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as a part of its territory.
The missiles are central to its technique to maintain the US Navy at arm’s size in such an occasion, with a zone off the coast of China which consultants name “the anti-access denial bubble,” aiming to probably discourage Washington from coming to Taiwan’s help.
The PLA desires “to set the conditions for the invasion of Taiwan,” stated Decker Eveleth, an affiliate analysis analyst on the non-profit nationwide safety group CNA and an skilled on China’s missile forces. “So that’s taking pictures at ports, taking pictures at helicopter bases, taking pictures at provide bases… taking pictures at something that may theoretically allow you to deliver help to Taiwan.
“They want to destroy things in theater and keep everything else out.”
NCS recognized 99 sites linked to missile manufacturing and discovered that 65 of those amenities have expanded with constructed ground area that consultants say may have an exponential influence on the dimensions of China’s production.
NCS additionally analyzed 37 bases belonging to the Rocket Force and discovered that 22 of those have expanded over the past 5 years.
In December 2024, the Pentagon estimated that China’s rocket power had boosted its missile provide by 50% in the previous 4 years. NCS’s evaluation of the infrastructure to provide these weapons means that Chinese efforts have continued unabated and gives additional perception into the sites making these rockets.
Earlier this yr, China accredited a rise of 7.2% in its defense budget, bringing the general spending to roughly $245 billion. This marks the fourth consecutive yr of greater than 7% development in navy spending, although many consultants say China’s actual expenditure is probably going a lot larger than the official determine.
China’s obvious surge in missile production comes because the US expends subtle protection programs in Ukraine and Israel, inflicting some ammunition shortages and sparking debate in Washington about how and the place to deploy its high-end weapons.
In July, NCS discovered that the US had burned by means of about 25% of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile interceptors whereas defending Israel in opposition to Iranian ballistic missile strikes throughout June’s 12-day conflict.
The US authorities has since expanded a earlier contract by greater than $2 billion to protection firm Lockheed Martin to bolster THAAD production. But these interceptors – which price roughly $12.7 million per unit in response to the 2025 Missile Defense Agency budget – are additionally time-consuming to construct.
The THAAD system was initially deployed contained in the US and in the Asia-Pacific area, and it’s thought-about a key a part of the US deterrence technique in opposition to China.
While it stays able to taking pictures down China’s missiles, consultants warn that the Pentagon’s provide points, coupled with Beijing’s drive for extra superior missiles, pose a rising risk to US pursuits.
Asked for touch upon NCS’s findings, the Pentagon stated it might not “speak to matters of intelligence.”
NCS’s findings additionally counsel that China’s missile production spiked in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, thought-about a watershed second in international safety.
Beijing practically doubled the speed of growth at missile production sites in the 2 years that adopted the onset of the conflict, in response to NCS’s satellite tv for pc imagery evaluation of constructed floorspace.
“They’re watching Ukraine incredibly closely,” Alberque stated. “They’re now watching real-life combat action between two very capable forces with the most modern technologies going toe to toe and they’re taking copious notes.”
The PLA, which has not engaged in fight since a short battle with Vietnam in 1979, attracts classes from ongoing conflicts. Russia’s aerial assault on Ukraine has proven that probably the most surefire approach to strike delicate targets is by overwhelming subtle Western air protection programs with cheaper munitions reminiscent of drones in order that extra highly effective ballistic missiles can hit their targets, consultants say.
That requires ramping up the production of each low-cost and costly missiles. China beforehand thought it would want 5,000 or 10,000 missiles to defeat Taiwan, in response to Alberque. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Beijing’s estimates have elevated exponentially, he added.
The PLA, nevertheless, isn’t with out its personal difficulties. A widespread and ongoing anticorruption marketing campaign inside the senior ranges of the Chinese military has led to questions in regards to the nation’s true combat readiness.
Multiple high-ranking navy officers with connections to the Rocket Force, together with two former defense ministers, have been faraway from their posts in the final two years alone, with official experiences hinting at corruption related to the PLA’s uptick in the procurement of weapons.
“I think they’ve identified it (corruption) as something that really has posed great risks to the political reliability and ultimately the operational capability of the PLA,” a senior US protection official stated in December.
Information from China’s two largest state-owned protection conglomerates – the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), and the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) – shaped the premise of NCS’s evaluation, which examined a paper path of presidency notices to find the in any other case hidden sites.
These firms, and their subsidiaries, produce nearly all of the nation’s typical and nuclear rockets and missiles.
NCS has requested feedback from CASC and CASIC.
While Beijing makes use of code names to obscure a few of their navy initiatives, NCS’s analysis revealed – and then pinpointed – the sites.
For instance, a authorities discover earlier this yr referenced a building venture in Shaanxi province belonging to the CASC 4th Academy, which is broadly often called the principle contractor for solid-fuel rockets. Other authorities notices talked about the dimensions and tough location of the development.
Based on this data, NCS was in a position to decide the precise coordinates for this website. While the venture remains to be at an early stage, satellite tv for pc photos already present the development of blast partitions there, as seen at different missile production amenities.
For all of the sites, NCS measured the extra sq. footage of buildings by yr since 2020, and analyzed the precise amenities seen in satellite tv for pc imagery to find out their objective.
Experts say the extra constructed floorspace may set off a probably exponential development in the production capability of sure missiles. One Beijing website, which expanded by practically 50% since 2020, is concerned in the production of the vaunted DF-26 medium-range ballistic missile, in response to the China Aerospace Studies Institute. Defense consultants name the DF-26 the “Guam killer.”
A variant of this weapon, the DF-26D, tipped with a hypersonic glide car, was showcased for the primary time at China’s high-profile navy parade in September.
The DF-26D’s unpredictable flight path makes it potential, although not sure, for the missile to outmaneuver interceptors to probably attain the US territory of Guam, which is dwelling to the Andersen Air Force Base, a launching level for US long-range bombers.
The location and association of the missile-related sites that NCS analyzed range broadly. Some factories are tucked into cities, subsequent to residential buildings and eating places. Others are positioned in distant valleys, the place they snake their approach by means of steep terrain. Most of those production amenities have been constructed close to entities linked to the aerospace protection business.
The objective of some sites appear apparent from satellite tv for pc photos. What seem like intercontinental ballistic missile components will be seen parked on the tarmac as sections of outdated rockets sit in tons surrounded by weeds. Many others present clear indicators of precautions in opposition to the hazard concerned in missile production – buildings are surrounded by tall dust and concrete berms, a security measure in opposition to the danger of explosions.
Some of the sites that NCS examined have much less apparent visible clues tying them to missile production. However, proof of their involvement primarily based on their possession, partnerships, or the often-secretive nature of their areas made clear that at the least a part of their objective is weapons-related.
For instance, a check website of Shaanxi Aerospace in Sanyuan county, which sits in distant mountains close to Xi’an, seems to be nondescript. A discover that NCS examined, nevertheless, revealed {that a} college sanctioned by the US over ties with the Chinese navy and a key CASC subsidiary that could be a main contributor to the nation’s missile packages are concerned in the power’s building. The website can be utilized to simulate flight environments that can be utilized for hypersonic weapon growth, in response to a college discover.
In China, fields which might be essential to nationwide safety, reminiscent of aerospace know-how, don’t exist independently from the state safety equipment.
The development of China’s missile programs has given pause to arms management consultants, who warn that that is reshaping international safety. “I think there already is a cold war,” stated David Santoro, president and CEO of the Pacific Forum, a overseas coverage analysis institute that focuses on the Asia-Pacific area. “It’s across all domains and the risk is that it will turn into a hot war.”