Iceland’s comparatively gentle local weather is formed by a crucial community of currents that winds its away across the Atlantic Ocean transporting warmth northward — with out it, the island would be a lot icier and stormier. As proof mounts these currents could be on course for collapse, Iceland’s authorities has made the weird transfer of designating the chance a national security threat, prompting a a high-level response into how to put together for this “existential threat.”
“Our climate, economy and security are deeply tied to the stability of the ocean currents around us,” mentioned Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson, Iceland’s Minister for Environment, Energy and Climate.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation — referred to as the AMOC — is a looping system of currents that works like a big conveyor belt, pulling heat water from the Southern Hemisphere and tropics to the Northern Hemisphere, the place it cools, sinks and flows again south.
When scientists are requested which potential local weather influence terrifies them most, the collapse of the AMOC is usually prime of the checklist.
A rising physique of analysis factors to the AMOC slowing down, as increased world temperatures disrupt the fragile stability of warmth and salinity on which its power depends. The science remains to be unsettled on the chance and timing of any collapse, however some research have projected it may be on course to occur this century.
A shutdown of the AMOC “cannot be considered a low likelihood risk anymore in view of the evolving science over the past years,” mentioned Stefan Rahmstorf, a bodily oceanographer and climatologist who has studied the AMOC at Potsdam University in Germany.
The impacts would be catastrophic — ushering in enormous world climate and local weather shifts, together with rising sea ranges in components of the US and Europe, disrupted monsoon programs affecting nations in Asia and Africa, and a winter deep freeze in Europe, with sea ice probably creeping southward so far as the United Kingdom.
Iceland “would be close to the center of a serious regional cooling,” which means the country may be surrounded by sea ice, Rahmstorf advised NCS.
It’s an “an existential threat,” Jóhannsson advised NCS. The AMOC regulates Iceland’s climate, and its collapse may devastate infrastructure, transport and very important industries together with fishing, he mentioned.
Jóhannsson briefed the federal government on the newest science after research printed in August raised “grave concerns” concerning the AMOC’s future stability. In September, Iceland’s National Security Council designated the present’s potential collapse as a national security threat, marking the primary time a local weather influence has obtained this designation within the country.
The resolution “reflects the seriousness of the issue and ensures that the matter gets the attention it deserves,” Jóhannsson mentioned. In observe, the designation will imply a high-level, coordinated authorities response to perceive the threat and work out how to forestall and mitigate the worst penalties, he mentioned.
Rahmstorf counseled Iceland for its resolution and mentioned different nations ought to observe swimsuit. The impacts of an AMOC collapse would be felt throughout the globe. Scientists are attempting to perceive the total vary of potential impacts on societies and economies, however analysis has pointed to destroyed crops and catastrophic flooding.
Iceland’s resolution marks a shift in how the country understands local weather dangers, Jóhannsson mentioned.
“What we do know is that the current climate might change so drastically that it could become impossible for us to adapt,” he mentioned. “In short, this is not just a scientific concern — it’s a matter of national survival and security.”