Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was delighted to study final week that Russia and the United States had chosen his nation as the venue for one other summit on ending the battle in Ukraine.
Having positioned Hungary – a European Union and NATO member – as an ally of each Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, Orbán hoped to point out the world that “the road to peace runs through Budapest.”
But his hopes had been dashed after the Trump administration abruptly shelved plans for the Budapest summit and on Wednesday unveiled sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil producers – the primary since Trump returned to the White House.
Although the sanctions goal to deplete Russia’s war chest, they may additionally wreak havoc on Hungary’s economic system. Whereas nearly all EU nations have diversified their vitality combine away from Russia since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Hungary’s dependence has deepened. Along with Slovakia, its fellow antiliberal Central European neighbor, Hungary is sort of completely reliant on Russia for its oil imports.
Orbán is now reckoning with the grim penalties of his personal vitality coverage. Alongside Washington’s oil sanctions, the EU on Thursday confirmed it might ban Russian liquefied pure gasoline (LNG) imports from 2027. Last month, Orbán informed Trump that, with out Russian vitality imports, Hungary’s economic system could be introduced “to its knees.”
Against what he decries as the tasteless uniformity of Brussels, Orbán says he stands for “sovereignty” – Hungary’s proper to chart its personal course inside the EU and forge ties with hardline leaders overseas. But Orbán’s quest for sovereignty – spurning EU efforts to diversify its vitality provides – has left his nation perilously depending on one nation for fossil fuels.
The double blow of US oil sanctions and the LNG ban comes as Orbán, Europe’s longest-serving prime minister, is struggling to comprise Hungary’s surging opposition motion led by Peter Magyar, a former Orbán loyalist-turned-arch-rival. While Orbán had hoped a Trump-Putin summit may shore up his assist at dwelling, he now faces a deepening financial disaster that would weaken his hand earlier than an important election within the spring.
After Moscow’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, EU nations moved to slash Russian vitality imports to chop off a serious supply of the Kremlin’s income. However, Brussels gave Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic an exemption from a ban on Russian crude oil, giving them time to scale back their reliance on Russia.
Instead, Hungary and Slovakia used the exemption to deepen their dependence. Hungary elevated its Russian crude oil reliance from 61% pre-invasion to 86% in 2024. So far this 12 months, 92% of Hungary’s crude oil imports have been from Russia. Slovakia, in the meantime, is “almost 100% dependent” on provide from Moscow, in keeping with a report from the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
By May, Hungary and Slovakia’s crude oil purchases had despatched the Kremlin 5.4 billion euros ($6.3 billion), the report discovered, saying this was “the equivalent of the cost of purchasing 1,800 Iskander-M missiles that have been used to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure and kill Ukrainian civilians.”
The crude oil imports circulation by means of the Druzhba pipeline, which has been repeatedly attacked this summer season by Ukrainian drones, in an effort by Kyiv to punish its neighbors for serving to to fund Moscow’s battle.
The CSD-CREA report mentioned that Hungary may diversify its vitality provides, receiving non-Russian oil by means of Croatia’s Adria pipeline somewhat than Druzhba.
But Orbán has proven no signal of fixing tack. In an interview with Hungarian state radio Friday, he mentioned his authorities was “working on how to circumvent” the US sanctions, with out offering additional particulars.
Hungary’s intent to seek out workarounds to the US sanctions may present the primary main check of the Trump administration’s seriousness about implementing them, mentioned Elina Ribakova, a senior fellow on the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a suppose tank based mostly in Washington, DC.
Despite harsh rhetoric in the direction of Russia from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who mentioned the choice to impose new sanctions on Russia was resulting from “Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war” in Ukraine, Trump has been much less abrasive, saying he hoped the sanctions “won’t be on for long.” The US president additionally left the door open to the Budapest summit, saying “we’ll do it in the future.”
The success of the sanctions on Russia’s oil majors will rely upon how they’re enforced, together with towards a Trump ally like Orbán, Ribakova informed NCS.
“Which will it be: A friendly Putin-Trump meeting in Hungary, or throwing Hungary’s administration under the bus if they try to evade sanctions?” she mentioned. “I have no idea which way the cards will fall here.”