Here’s the situation of a 99 mile per hour fastball.
I wouldn’t advise swinging at this pitch. In the Statcast period, there have been 2,416 pitches thrown not less than that quick in this a part of the plate. The uncommon guys who’ve swung have a 56% whiff fee and a .307 xwOBAcon. (Imagine Mike Zunino’s whiff fee with Leody Taveras’s high quality of contact. Only worse.) Swinging at that pitch is frankly reckless. But right here’s what Josh Naylor can do with it:
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There’s an Elizabeth Taylor quote that aired relentlessly through the playoffs as Fox pushed its documentary about her: “I don’t think I’m reckless. But I am fearless.” That’s Josh Naylor. And it’s precisely why all of us fell for him so onerous so shortly. He’s not afraid to swing at a pitch like that, however as a result of he can pull it off, it’s not reckless.
Ryan dug into Naylor’s penchant for swinging excessive and away after Naylor’s three-hit ALCS Game 2. In that piece, Ryan pointed to Dan Wilson’s considering on why Naylor can get away with this the place others can’t: “His swing is so adjustable. When he sees a pitch up in the zone, he’s able to stay really short and get on top of it, and that’s the key.”
By nature, Naylor’s a bat management hitter. He’s bought the uncooked energy you’d anticipate for a primary baseman, and he might use that to chase dingers. But slightly than promoting out for launch angle, he makes use of his abilities to sq. up the ball on the 89th percentile, peppering hits all around the area, with sufficient energy to maintain pitchers trustworthy. Given his baseball IQ, you belief that selection.
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It’s that capability to get essentially the most out of his swing that enables him to fearlessly go after pitches most guys would solely flail at. In the Mariners’ greatest common season sequence of the 12 months, he went after one other excessive pitch to assist bury the Astros.
The standard knowledge is to raise and have fun. Naylor is aware of he’s higher this fashion, and he’s courageous sufficient to go in opposition to the grain.
While it comes by means of in his hitting, whenever you consider Josh Naylor’s fearlessness, it’s in all probability his baserunning that involves thoughts first. And in this division, his fearlessness is truly underrated.
Naylor’s a big-bodied first baseman with a dash pace in the third percentile, twelfth lowest in MLB. And but he stole 30 bases this 12 months, together with going an ideal 19 for 19 with Seattle. When he first began his spree, you may say it was simply pitchers ignoring a giant man, however he didn’t get any much less daring after the phrase bought out.
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So when individuals discuss his stolen bases, they normally discuss how he’s in a position to do it due to his baseball IQ. He can spot tendencies and timing in pitchers at an apparently elite stage, sufficient to compensate for his concrete sneakers. But think about the 27 different gamers with dash speeds underneath 25 ft/second. 17 of them are catchers; it’s not precisely a low-baseball-IQ group. Yet these different 27 gamers mixed for simply 15 stolen base makes an attempt. Naylor’s 32 makes an attempt are a testomony to his willingness to take dangers. His 94% success fee proves he is aware of what he’s doing and that his baseball IQ is, in reality, elite.
This all got here collectively in one of many greatest video games in Mariners franchise historical past: Game 5 of the ALDS. If ever there was a time for warning, this may have been it. A sluggish man getting caught stealing, losing a treasured base runner in opposition to Tarik Skubal, might simply have ended up being the story of how the Mariners had been eradicated from the playoffs. But Josh Naylor wasn’t afraid to attempt, and in a recreation that went 15 innings, you’ll be able to guess the run mattered.
He performs protection the identical means. As he daringly performs farther towards second than another first baseman. Others play a bit farther from the bag, however they do it safely, taking part in again slightly than shading in direction of second as Naylor does. His confidence that he can nonetheless cowl the bag means he’s not sacrificing outs to play with optimized positioning. In different phrases, it’s not reckless. Aren’t you glad he wasn’t nearer to the bag in ALCS Game 3? Lots of groups want to place thier first baseman right here in opposition to Alejandro Kirk. Only Naylor’s can truly do it.
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Naylor employs a mode of play that appears loopy. But he’s not being reckless, simply fearless. And past merely being good, this is what made him an immediate fan favourite and a participant the Mariners and their followers felt they couldn’t dwell with out. It’s no surprise he was prepared for the massive second.