The 2026 NBA playoffs will characteristic legendary matchups, intriguing questions and all kinds of X-factors. But who has the most at stake this postseason, and who will finally win it all? Our writers weigh in.
What’s your take on the East?
Tom Haberstroh: Boston’s magical run will proceed to the Finals. In coaching camp, if Boston envisioned a best-case state of affairs for the common season, the precise 2025-26 season can be it. It’s one factor for Jayson Tatum to return again wholesome. It’s one other factor for him to seem like the Jayson Tatum of previous. And he has. Bad information for the East.
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Ben Rohrbach: The Celtics are the solely staff in the East able to contending with the West. The Pistons lack a secondary creator. The Knicks have defensive holes. The Cavaliers rely on James Harden to get them over the hump in the second spherical. Not to say any of them can not beat the Celtics. I simply assume none of them has a shot in the Finals. Only Boston, with a wholesome Tatum, can problem the depth of whoever emerges from a gauntlet in the different convention.
Everything to know for the NBA playoffs: Predictions, series previews, X-factors
Kelly Iko: The probabilities for any upsets, a minimum of in the first spherical, are slim with Charlotte falling flat on its face in the largest recreation of the season. Atlanta, which has the league’s third-best web score over the remaining two months of the season, can be the finest candidate towards New York. But elsewhere, Detroit, Boston and Cleveland ought to face minimal opposition over the subsequent two weeks. The Hawks’ mandates are clear towards the Knicks: unfold the ground, transfer the ball and have completely different stress factors of assault. They seem like a really, very powerful out.
Dan Devine: I believe all of the favorites will make it out of Round 1, however all of them will need to sweat to do it. The Pistons have been the most buttoned-up staff in the East all season, and now they’ll need to cope with a Magic staff that simply proved it actually can play like the staff all of us anticipated. The Celtics seem like a battle machine, however there’s nothing enjoyable about having to attempt to corral Tyrese Maxey for 48 minutes (or extra, if Nick Nurse can bend area/time to play him even longer than that). Knicks-Hawks and Cavs-Raptors are each pace-of-play type clashes, and the favorites are going to need to work to keep up management of the wheel. Nothing in the East appears like an apparent walkover, which makes every little thing extra compelling. Styles make fights. Weaknesses power innovation. Perfection is boring; let’s embrace being fractured and have enjoyable getting bizarre.
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Nekias Duncan: There’s a heightened stage of the “unknown.” Take Cavs-Raptors; their regular-season matchups occurred earlier than Thanksgiving. We are getting a contemporary take a look at these two in a high-stakes setting. We solely bought one “real” take a look at Hawks-Knicks again on April 6, and even that lacked positional cross-matching from the Hawks’ aspect — they didn’t stash a wing on Karl-Anthony Towns with their heart (Onyeka Okongwu) roaming off Josh Hart, a well-liked gambit — which I’m positive we’ll see this time round. Health allowing, you possibly can construct an inexpensive case to any of those groups successful a number of playoff rounds; that feels uncommon.
Playoff Preview
What’s your take on the West?
Rohrbach: The Spurs are each bit nearly as good as the Thunder, and the Nuggets are nearly as good as each of them. Every metric possible means that San Antonio, with Victor Wembanyama, is on par with OKC, the defending NBA champions. Denver would have exceeded 60 wins, too, if it had been wholesome all season. With apologies to the Timberwolves, who might beat the Nuggets in the first spherical, considered one of three groups is successful the West — and all might need an equal likelihood.
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Iko: Outside of one other Nuggets-Wolves rerun, this could be the most ho-hum first spherical seen in fairly a while. I don’t anticipate both (*25*) or San Antonio to bat an eye fixed at the Warriors/Suns or Blazers, and exterior of some Kevin Durant/LeBron James moments, I’m not shedding sleep over Rockets-Lakers. Seems like everyone seems to be simply ready on the Spurs and Thunder to satisfy as soon as once more.
Duncan: I like the assessments the prime three groups will get to start out their postseason runs. Most would agree the Thunder, Spurs and Nuggets — in whichever order — are the likeliest groups to symbolize the West in the Finals this 12 months, however additionally they need to face some demons earlier than we get there. The Thunder will both see the Stephen Curry-Draymond Green combo, or a Suns staff with an annoying protection that’s had them in a headlock in numerous factors of their regular-season matchups. The Spurs need to face a Blazers group with defensive personnel that may faucet into all types of stress and cross-matching seems to be. The Nuggets need to face the Timberwolves. Again. Bring me all of it.
Devine: I believe the Thunder are going to waltz to the convention finals, and I believe that whoever they face popping out of the different aspect of the bracket will have needed to principally undergo “The Raid” to greet them there. That doesn’t imply they will’t get bought, however they have been already the favorites for a cause, and the method the seeding fell appears fairly ultimate for them.
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Haberstroh: Spurs-Thunder in the West Finals, please and thanks. This is The Next Great NBA Rivalry, and I actually hope we see these two behemoths face off towards one another. There’s numerous dangerous blood right here between Wemby and OKC, and I pray to my fortunate stars everybody stays wholesome sufficient to make it a actuality.
What’s the largest query in these playoffs?
Devine: How are these hammies feeling, Aaron Gordon? The reply might be the distinction between Denver climbing again to the prime of the mountain or bowing out in Round 1.
Haberstroh: Does playoff expertise matter anymore? I argued it doesn’t. Or a minimum of not as a lot as it used to. More than ever, participant well being issues far more than playoff pedigree. For Detroit and San Antonio, two 60-win groups whose cores have by no means made it out of the first spherical, I actually hope they will bust the playoff expertise fantasy.
Rohrbach: I’m with Tom. The Spurs lack the requisite playoff scars to compete for a title, a minimum of traditionally talking, however will it matter? It didn’t for OKC final season. But a much bigger query could also be: Can Jayson Tatum be Jayson Tatum? Few gamers have extra playoff scars than Tatum and Jaylen Brown. If Tatum can carry out at an All-NBA stage, and he has been shut, the Celtics might completely win the East, and they could also have a likelihood towards the West’s winner.
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Iko: Two defensive traits have been on my thoughts all through the common season: stress charges and placing two on the ball, forcing groups to beat you in 4-on-3 eventualities. What does that seem like in the playoffs when every little thing allegedly slows down, rotations are shorter and each possession is the most vital one? Is the NBA really an individualistic league or is the copycat syndrome right here to remain?
Duncan: Like Kelly, my thoughts additionally shifts to protection. We’ve seen an uptick in full-court stress, extra audacious cross-matching — KAT will see wings, and I’m positive Stephon Castle will see facilities sooner or later — and all kinds of zone seems to be this season. How a lot of these gambits will carry over, when will they be deployed, and how rapidly offenses can discover solutions to them loom fairly massive to me.
Who has the most at stake this postseason?
Iko: Anthony Edwards could be too harsh of a solution, however actually the Wolves as an entire. After two straight exits at the convention remaining stage, each defeats coming in simply 5 video games, my eyes are glued to Edwards and Minnesota. A troublesome matchup with a well-recognized foe might ship them packing early, which might undoubtedly put stress on the group. Have they accomplished sufficient to construct a contending roster, having tried numerous approaches? We all noticed the Edwards/Jalen Johnson interplay from All-Star weekend — do these seeds of doubt begin to creep in?
Haberstroh: James Harden. He has 17 postseason runs in his NBA profession, and but he’s nonetheless on the lookout for his first championship. With Chris Paul retiring, the focus turns to Harden as the no-doubt Hall of Famer who continues to be making an attempt to deliver dwelling the elusive Larry O’B. The Cavs actually have a shot, however so have all of Harden’s 17 groups.
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Duncan: I believe it’s the Cavs by default. When you commerce away a younger star expertise in Darius Garland — hampered with a toe harm, however a star expertise nonetheless — for a greater however a lot older choice in James Harden, you’re signaling two issues: 1) what we’ve got isn’t sufficient to the place we need to go, and 2) we have to get this accomplished proper now. I wouldn’t rule out a Finals run for the Cavs, however they kinda want to make it there in a method the others, sans New York perhaps, don’t. We’re most likely having Harden, Evan Mobley and, to a lesser extent, Donovan Mitchell conversations if this staff bows out in the second spherical, and we’re undoubtedly having them in the event that they lose to the Raptors.
Rohrbach: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. What’s at stake for SGA over the subsequent two months? Back-to-back championships, back-to-back regular-season MVPs, back-to-back Finals MVPs. Here’s who has accomplished that earlier than: LeBron James (2012-13) and Michael Jordan (1991-92). Bill Russell would have accomplished it thrice from 1961-63 if the Finals MVP existed at the time. (The award is known as for him now.) Point is: SGA might be in some GOAT conversations quickly.
Devine: Well, the Knicks’ proprietor — after firing the head coach that introduced the franchise to its first convention finals in 25 years — went on the radio and stated the staff mustn’t solely make the NBA Finals, however win it all … and then the Celtics beat them out for the No. 2 seed, bought their finest participant again and appear to be raring to go for a second-round rematch. That looks as if a fairly good cause to assume that everybody in New York is feeling an immense quantity of stress proper about now.
What’s your Finals prediction?
Duncan: Thunder over Celtics. There have been worthy challengers this 12 months, notably the Spurs with their regular-season dominance of their matchups, however nothing has actually shaken me off my perception the Thunder are the finest staff in basketball. Having the Spurs and Nuggets on the different aspect of the bracket makes their pathway much more favorable. Ultimately, I believe SGA goes to cap off considered one of the biggest seasons of all time with one other championship.
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Haberstroh: Spurs over Celtics. I’ve long believed Victor Wembanyama is on the GOAT path, and he has a golden likelihood to solidify that right here. OKC barely bought previous Denver and Indiana final 12 months, and these Spurs are higher than these squads. With a little bit harm luck breaking San Antonio’s method, I believe Wemby and the Spurs win it.
Devine: Thunder over Knicks. I went with that earlier than the season, and I’m not a very spineless coward devoid of morals or self-respect, so I’ll persist with it now.
Iko: Spurs over Cavs. San Antonio has the schemes, personnel and most significantly, the psychological edge essential to delay a dynasty and get previous Oklahoma City. And I could be the solely particular person in America who thinks Cleveland has a Finals-ready roster in the Eastern Conference, but when James Harden and Donovan Mitchell can’t make a deep run now, I doubt they ever will. In any case, this might be a contemporary switch-up.
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Rohrbach: Thunder over Celtics. I picked Nuggets over Cavaliers at the start of the season, and I haven’t seen almost sufficient from both staff to belief them to win 4 rounds. OKC, on the different hand, will be favored in each sequence it performs in these playoffs, even towards the Spurs, Nuggets or Celtics, all of whom might beat the Thunder. This goes to be enjoyable.