Islamabad
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As US President Donald Trump took a victory lap in entrance of world leaders following the Gaza ceasefire on Monday, he gave a shout-out to Pakistan’s high soldier, calling him his “favorite field marshal.”
He then relinquished the rostrum to permit Pakistan’s civilian chief, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, to ship to the cameras his personal reward of Trump’s ceasefire efforts. Sharif introduced that very same day he meant to nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize – once more.
A 12 months in the past, such scenes would have been unthinkable.
Washington had lengthy saved Pakistan at arm’s size, over its chronic political instability and alleged ties to US-sanctioned Islamist terror teams. The truth it’s one in all China’s closest allies didn’t assist both.
Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden by no means even known as both of the 2 Pakistani prime ministers who served throughout his time period. After the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, he enraged neighboring Pakistan by calling it “one of the most dangerous nations in the world.”
But Trump 2.0 has shaken the mixer of US diplomacy, upending friendships and bringing foes into the fold of his presidency – if they’ve one thing to supply.
And to this point, Pakistan has delivered a masterclass in how to reply.
Its leaders have been common company on the White House and have escaped the tongue-lashings dished out to different heads of state; its navy is awaiting a brand new cargo of US-made Raytheon missiles; and its diplomats have negotiated tariffs a superb deal smaller than these imposed on neighbor and arch-rival India.
It appears to have completed this by means of a promise of preferential entry to essential rare earths not managed by China and even handed flattery of Trump.
So far Pakistan’s diplomatic sport is elevating cheers again residence. It’s additionally enraging India, which has been unnoticed within the chilly and hit with huge tariffs for its continued purchases of low cost Russian oil.
In the thick of warming ties, analysts say, is Field Marshal Asim Munir, the chief of Pakistan’s highly effective navy, which has lengthy performed an outsize function within the nation’s usually tumultuous politics.
The 57-year-old son of a schoolteacher, Munir ran Pakistan’s highly effective Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy company earlier than turning into high basic in 2022. Insiders say he’s a person of deliberate thriller, a darkish horse who meticulously controls his public persona.
But in May he was thrust into the limelight when Pakistan fought a four-day battle with India, by which dozens of troopers and civilians had been killed, and worldwide alarm grew that the conflagration may spill into a totally fledged conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbors.
It wasn’t lengthy earlier than Trump acquired concerned, calling on either side to cease combating. When they did, he claimed the credit score. That was a declare shortly and publicly endorsed by Pakistan, which later nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize – the primary nation to accomplish that throughout his second time period.
India, in the meantime, repeated livid denials that the US president had performed any function in silencing the weapons, insisting the matter was between it and Pakistan solely.
Pakistan has maintained that it downed seven Indian Air Force jets through the battle in May, a quantity repeated a number of occasions in public by Trump. India has by no means confirmed the quantity and had initially vociferously denied any of its jets had been downed.
Days later, Munir – not too long ago promoted to area marshal over his helming of the disaster – traveled to Washington. There, he met Trump for lunch, within the first go to by a Pakistani military chief to the US president on the White House unaccompanied by Pakistani civilian officers.
Trump “likes winners,” Shuja Nawaz, a DC-based writer and political and strategic analyst, instructed NCS.
“He’s always said that… he doesn’t like losers. And so he obviously saw in Field Marshal Asim Munir a winner who is willing to make quick decisions… they must have been on the same page when Trump talked to him about a ceasefire.”
US acknowledgement of Pakistan’s shut ties to the Gulf and the Islamic world was on full show as Trump addressed the Gaza summit assembly on Monday.
“The current global moment does benefit Pakistan” due to its “its geographic proximity to that region, as well as its close partnerships with many of the key stakeholders there,” mentioned Michael Kugelman, senior fellow on the Asia Pacific Foundation.
Kugelman additionally cited Islamabad’s “pretty smooth relationship” with Iran, including that for the Trump administration, Pakistan is a rustic “that could play the role… in the sense of taking a message from Washington to Tehran.”
Pakistan has historical past in serving to the US conduct troublesome conversations. In 1971 it helped organize Henry Kissinger’s secret go to from Islamabad to Beijing, a visit that led to Washington normalizing relations with Mao Zedong’s communist China.
But the most important card Pakistan has to play, analysts say, is entry to the rare earths not managed by China which might be wanted energy every little thing from iPhones to MRI machines to probably the most superior fighter jets and navy weaponry.
China holds a near-monopoly on the worldwide provide of the group of 17 kinds of minerals, particularly dominating their processing and refinement. That’s a bonus Beijing has proven itself more and more prepared to leverage because it continues sparring with the US over tariffs, tech and financial points.
That’s why Pakistan – residence to round $8 trillion in untapped mineral wealth, in accordance to its authorities – has aggressively pitched itself as a hub for essential minerals, and has caught Trump’s eye.
During the September Oval Office assembly, an image launched by the White House confirmed General Munir proudly presenting President Trump with a wood field glittering with examples of minerals from Pakistan.
That identical month, Missouri-based agency US Strategic Metals introduced it had acquired the primary cargo of “enriched rare earth elements and critical minerals” from the nation, as a part of a $500 million “partnership framework.” It didn’t specify the quantity of the batch, which it mentioned included antimony – usually used as a flame retardant for plastics and an alloying agent – copper focus, and “rare earth elements with neodymium and praseodymium.”
Most of Pakistan’s rare earths are thought to be in Balochistan province, which has been rocked for years by a separatist insurgency that seeks better political autonomy and financial growth within the strategically necessary and mineral-rich area.
In August the US formally designated the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) – one of many main separatist teams, which Pakistan has lengthy accused India of funding – as a terror group.
The following month the US introduced it had accepted gross sales of Raytheon Advance Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) to Pakistan.
For some, Munir’s distinguished function in deepening ties with the US have resurfaced fears in regards to the navy’s affect on Pakistan’s political panorama.
Since independence in 1947, Pakistan has been led by 4 totally different navy rulers and seen three coups. Since the present structure got here into impact in 1973, no prime minister has accomplished a full five-year time period.
Munir’s critics say he has tightened management over the navy and exerted vital affect over authorities selections, and even the Supreme Court.
Last month a report from Amnesty International mentioned the state “continues to crack down on local rights activists and opposition party members for dissent and criticism of the state, especially the Pakistan Armed Forces.”
The Pakistani facet of the “partnership” signed by Missouri’s US Strategic Metals is the Frontier Works Organization, a military-run firm, making certain the navy will reap a piece of the income and clout ought to the partnership show profitable.
Asked by NCS to touch upon relations with the US, a spokesperson for Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs mentioned: “Our bilateral partnership is built on a foundation of shared interests, including regional stability, security, and economic collaboration.”
But there’s a restrict to how far this thawing of ties will go, analysts mentioned.
Relations will all the time be on the mercy of Trump, mentioned Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador to the US.
“Trump’s is an unconventional presidency,” mentioned Haqqani, at present a scholar at Washington DC’s Hudson Institute and the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi.
“He now likes Pakistan because Pakistan likes him and has showered him with praise, including a Nobel Peace Prize nomination.”