(These are the market notes on right this moment’s motion by Mike Santoli, CNBC’s Senior Markets Commentator. See right this moment’s video replace from Mike above.) Wall Street holds close to report highs in a government-data blackout , with sufficient rotational power towards left-behind teams, refreshed confidence in the AI spending frenzy, certainty of a Fed price reduce this month and speculative aggression in lower-quality longshots to maintain the indexes aloft. In the absence of a month-to-month jobs report back to create a concentrated node of repriced expectations and market volatility, the tape reverts to the prevailing slow-grind uptrend and buyers defer to pre-existing assumptions of a slack labor market eliciting looser coverage however not foretelling broad financial ache. A weak ISM Services report appeared to provide an additional push to a rotation towards small-caps and away from mega-tech ( Russell 2000 up 0.8% to a 0.4% decline in the Nasdaq-100 ), as if executing the “easy Fed” playbook, although the bond market heard no such message, yields holding regular. Some indicators of overheating and exhaustion arguably increase an alert for potential erratic power and rising fragility, however this market has rendered lots such alarms false. Large-cap cult momentum names Tesla and Palantir exerted stress on the S & P 500, whilst micro-caps fly , quantum-computing lottery tickets surge , crypto presses to former highs , and Robinhood shares add 2% right this moment, 22% this month and virtually 300% yr so far. Some odd excessive readings are observable from the exceptional diploma of big-cap index resilience and wide-swinging/fast-rotating particular person shares and sectors. Here’s the ratio of the common inventory’s realized volatility relative to the S & P 500’s realized vol. An extraordinary quantity of fast-shifting, offsetting motion occurring. There’s at least an opportunity this breaks containment at some level, however up to now it is merely preserving issues orderly on the floor. Big image: The bull market is nearing its third anniversary with a hard-to-fight technical setup, elevated valuations, broad investor settlement that we’ve an AI bubble in the making and never poised to burst and the Fed executing its second soft-landing rate-cut marketing campaign in a yr’s time. The market nonetheless trades as if the professionals do not feel uncovered sufficient to shares, and strategists have needed to pursue the index larger after the springtime confidence crash reversed quicker than anticipated. We’ll see if this persists lengthy sufficient to make the widespread expectations for a fourth-quarter efficiency chase a actuality.