Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on Oct. 1, 2025.
NYSE
On Wednesday, the U.S. authorities floor to a halt. Stock markets, nevertheless, jumped — one benchmark even hit a file excessive.
Traders in prediction markets are betting the shutdown will final almost two weeks. Nothing too radical, since that is the common size it takes for the authorities to reopen, primarily based on information going again to 1990 from Bank of America.
The authorities stoppage is not placing the brakes on the inventory market momentum. Are investors getting too adventurous? Well, historical past exhibits the sample will not be new. The S&P 500 has risen an average of 1% the week earlier than and after a shutdown, in accordance to information from BofA.
Even the ADP jobs report, which missed expectations by a large margin, did little to subdue the animal spirits. Private payrolls declined by 32,000 in September, in accordance to ADP, in contrast with a forty five,000 improve estimated by a Dow Jones survey of economists.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ official nonfarm payrolls report is now caught in bureaucratic purgatory and therefore not being launched Friday. So, the U.S. Federal Reserve may place extra weight on the ADP report — although it is not always moved in sync with the BLS numbers. Traders anticipate weak information would immediate the Fed to minimize rates of interest in October.
Shrugging off all adverse news, the S&P 500 closed above the 6,700 stage for the first time. Looks like, as soon as once more, the notion of what’s unhealthy news is starkly totally different for outdoor observers and the markets.
What you want to know at the moment
And lastly…
Morning gentle hits the U.S. Capitol hours forward of a press convention to talk about the Epstein Files Transparency invoice, directing the launch of the remaining information associated to the investigations into Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., September 3, 2025.
Jonathan Ernst | Reuters
How a U.S. government shutdown could impact global markets
The U.S. authorities entered a shutdown on Wednesday. It provides to issues over U.S. institutional credibility, fiscal place and “dysfunction,” in accordance to Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at Aberdeen.
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM U.S., famous that the greatest consequence for markets may be additional strain on the dollar or an impression on the Fed’s October fee resolution.
— Chloe Taylor and Tasmin Lockwood