By Frank Pallotta, NCS Business

The Summer Olympics — considered one of the most-watched occasions worldwide — formally kicks off in Tokyo this weekend.

After being delayed a year due to the pandemic, NBC hopes pent-up demand will drive sports activities followers to their TVs, laptops and telephones to tune in. But conventional TV viewership of this 12 months’s video games faces a set of challenges that might land the Tokyo Olympics in a ratings hole.

“This is probably going to be the lowest-rated summer Olympics of all time,” stated Patrick Crakes, a former Fox Sports government turned media advisor. “They can’t avoid the increased media fractionalization that’s enabling everyone to spend more time with all sorts of content.”

The excellent news for NBC is it doesn’t have to rely completely on old style TV scores to earn money on the Olympics.

Streaming and digital platforms present viewers with extra methods to observe the Olympics than ever — stay occasions, highlights, interviews, tales and different shareable clips. That’s why this Olympics might see its viewership fall to a document low in the conventional TV sense but nonetheless attain extra eyeballs than ever.

“I think we could see that its reach across all platforms was bigger than any Olympics that came before,” Crakes stated.

Bad information: TV scores are down

The decline in TV scores isn’t new: TV viewership for the 2016 Rio Olympics fell roughly 18% from the 2012 London video games. But the proliferation of TV exhibits, movie and different content material throughout a number of platforms has accelerated markedly since then.

All linear television is down,” famous Jay Rosenstein, a former VP of programming at CBS Sports, who expects Olympics scores to tumble once more.

The TV world is vastly totally different than it was simply 5 years in the past. Viewers now have a number of viewing choices — from social media to streaming providers.

Just take into consideration the variety of streaming providers that have launched in the last year alone.

NBC desires wonderful scores, as a result of if the numbers drop an excessive amount of, it might pressure the community to compensate advertisers for lower-than-expected viewership with free advertisements later. (That’s often called “make-goods” in the TV enterprise.)

With viewership for different scores drivers (like award shows) dropping sharply, sports activities at the moment are much more essential to networks and advertisers.

Bad information: Covid

The different distinctive difficulty dealing with these Olympics, in fact, is that they’re taking place in the middle of a pandemic. The video games have already needed to take care of whether they should even be held and information {that a} rising variety of athletes have tested positive for the virus.

But from a TV standpoint, the greatest difficulty is that the games have no spectators. Bob Costas, the legendary sportscaster who fronted 11 Olympic video games, informed NCS earlier this month that the absence of followers makes for “a hell of a challenge.”

“There’s no substitute for fans,” stated Rosenstein. “Think of swimming, the screaming that takes place when they’re dealing in hundredths of a second to the touch and how loud that can get and how enthused it gets you at home. Absolutely, fans matter.”

The NBA Finals, for instance, was down in comparison with two years in the past, however rebounded in a big way from last year, which passed off in a bubble with out followers.

Good information: NBC is aware of what it’s doing

That doesn’t imply that the Olympics can’t break by.

“What NBC has to do, and which they do so well, is they weave a tapestry in prime time where you get to experience the lives of these athletes and watch their performances and identify with their country or with themselves,” stated Rosenstein.

NBC has stated that it plans to have 7,000 hours worth of Olympics coverage throughout broadcast TV, cable and streaming.

The Olympics are additionally a information occasion as a lot as a sporting occasion, so how NBC balances the story of the competitors and the story of the well being disaster will doubtless matter to viewers as properly.

“If NBC doesn’t pay enough attention to Covid, then it looks like they are denying reality,” Lee Igel, a medical professor at NYU’s Tisch Institute for Global Sport, informed NCS Business. “However, bringing Covid too much into the discussion and you could alienate viewers who are tired of the pandemic and want to watch the Olympics for the glory of the games. How the broadcast balances that will be something to look out for.”

Good information: Peacock

NBC can also use the occasion as a two-week commercial for its streaming service, Peacock.

In reality, the authentic 2020 plan was for Comcast’s NBCUniversal to introduce Peacock final summer season in conjunction with the Olympics. The pandemic put these plans on maintain, so now Peacock — which is important to the firm’s development — will get its second to shine.

“It’s an enormous piece of leverage for people who want to experience it or sample it or watch it,” Rosenstein stated.

Peacock is providing stay video games and content material together with males’s and girls’s gymnastics and males’s and girls’s monitor and area.

Whether the Olympics results in folks really signing up for Peacock is but to be seen, nonetheless.

Good information: Sports drive scores

Even if viewership numbers are down for the Olympics, scores will nonetheless be larger than just about anything on TV this summer season, as a result of stay sports activities sometimes dominate viewership.

So, sure, NBC desires gangbuster scores for the video games — to which it’s committed billions of dollars over the next decade — but when it doesn’t get them it’s not essentially the finish of the world.

“The Olympics are the Olympics,” Rosenstein stated. “They’re one of the most most popular events in the world, and their engagement will continue to be significant, one way or the other.”

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