That resolution, coupled with the truth that Covid-19 instances in his state are largely flat over the previous a number of weeks, are proof-positive to some conservatives that authorities involvement in mitigating the virus was not solely onerous but in addition, finally, type of pointless.

Whether Abbott has been fortunate or good is very a lot up for debate — particularly following an interview on Sunday with “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace wherein the Texas governor appeared to have little concept (and that is being beneficiant) about herd immunity in opposition to the coronavirus actually works.

Abbott: “When you look at the senior population, for example, 70 — more than 70% of our seniors have received a vaccine shot, more than 50% of those who are 50 to 65 have received a vaccine shot. I don’t know what herd immunity is, but when you add that to the people who have acquired immunity, it looks like it could be very close to herd immunity.”

There’s lots of fallacious assumptions in Abbott’s reply right here. Let’s undergo them.

He says that 70% of individuals 65 and older and greater than half of individuals ages 50-65 “have received a vaccine shot.” Which is nice! But here is the factor: Full immunity doesn’t arrive after a single shot. In the case of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, it is two weeks after the single-dose shot while you could be thought of to be totally vaccinated. With the Moderna shot, it is two weeks after you get the second shot — which is a month after you get your first. With the Pfizer vaccine it is two weeks after the second shot, which is three weeks after the primary one.

(Worth noting: According to Texas public health data, fewer than 1 in 5 Texans (19%) are totally vaccinated; roughly 1 in 3 (32%) have had at the least one shot.)

So Abbott is fallacious — or at the least misinformed — when it comes to understanding what full immunity is and while you get it.

But that lack of information pales as compared to Abbott on herd immunity in Texas: “I don’t know what herd immunity is, but when you add that to the people who have acquired immunity, it looks like it could be very close to herd immunity.”

Uh …

So, to sum up: 1) Abbott doesn’t know what herd immunity is and/however 2) he is fairly positive that Texas “could be very close” to it.

Yeah, that checks out.

Here’s what herd immunity actually is, in accordance to Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. “Herd immunity is the point where there’s enough people that have been either infected or vaccinated that you basically can’t sustain transmission in the community. And if one case leads to less than one new infection, then eventually it peters out.”

Estimates fluctuate on how a lot of the inhabitants would want to be vaccinated — or have the antibodies from a earlier coronavirus an infection. Some — together with Dr. Anthony Fauci –– have pegged that number at between 70% and 85% of the population. Other specialists say that quantity is larger — nearer to 90% of the inhabitants.
The level is that Texas — given its present vaccination numbers — is not shut to herd immunity simply but. That is, until you consider that effectively over half of the state’s residents have has Covid-19. Which, once more, is not borne out by the info. According to Johns Hopkins University, Texas has had 2,827,153 confirmed coronavirus instances. That’s just below 10% of its 2019 inhabitants (29 million).

Do the maths and also you get this: Roughly 3 in 10 Texans might at present have some extent of immunity in opposition to the virus. That’s lower than half of even the low-end estimates of what you would want to obtain herd immunity. Also take into account that herd immunity is based mostly on all ages, not simply adults — and positively not simply seniors.

Then there’s this: Calculating herd immunity by state is pointless. States aren’t locked down. People journey throughout state traces on a regular basis. That reality makes it virtually inconceivable to ever declare a state had herd immunity. The solely means you might make such a declaration is to shut the border of the state — permitting nobody in or out. Which Texas is not doing.

Abbott is not a physician or an epidemiologist. So, I get that he won’t have been completely clear on the entire idea of herd immunity when the pandemic began greater than a 12 months in the past. Or even when the primary vaccines began to roll out. But when you’re the governor of a state that has 29 million individuals in it, you’ve gotten a accountability to bone up on it. And not go on nationwide TV and make ridiculous and fallacious claims about the place your state is on the march to herd immunity.



Sources

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