Democrats began this 12 months in the doldrums, having misplaced each the White House and management of Congress and with their social gathering heading toward record-low approval ratings.
They’re in a place to finish it using a wave of momentum, with yet one more likelihood to over-perform expectations and make the Republican majority in the US House even narrower.
Tennessee’s seventh Congressional District on Tuesday will host the fifth and last special US House election of the 12 months. In the first 4, Democrats exceeded the Democratic candidates’ margins in 2024 House races by a mean of 16 factors. They ran nicely forward of Democrat Kamala Harris’ margins towards President Donald Trump in New Jersey and Virginia’s off-year elections, with remarkably excessive turnout all through the 12 months.
Republican Mark Green, who resigned from the Tennessee 7th this year, gained in 2024 by simply over 20 factors. Data on early voters suggests a extra favorable setting in contrast with final 12 months for Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn, who’s working towards Republican Matt Van Epps.
A deep-red district stretching west from Nashville would usually be an unlikely Democratic pickup alternative. But nationwide Democrats and Republicans are intently watching the Tennessee seventh anyway, with exterior teams pouring cash into the race and GOP-aligned teams sounding the alarm about Tuesday’s election.
Behn has centered her marketing campaign on affordability, railing towards the GOP spending payments and Trump’s tariffs. She pointed to Democrats’ success campaigning on this message in New York City, New Jersey and Virginia.
“I think these voters are looking around and life isn’t better,” Behn informed NCS. “I think people are saying ‘we’ve had enough, we’re fed up.’”
Behn mentioned the nationwide consideration to her race is welcome, particularly as a result of the South has “been underinvested and overlooked” and Tennessee traditionally has low voter turnout.
“Our theory of change was always like we have to ensure that every Democrat in the country cares about this race and sees the opportunity here to invest in the state of Tennessee,” she mentioned.
Since profitable a crowded major in October, Van Epps has highlighted his background as a army helicopter pilot and specializing in decreasing prices. In one marketing campaign advert, he describes himself as on a “new mission to bring down prices, create good paying jobs, and lower healthcare costs for working families.”
Van Epps’ marketing campaign declined an interview request.
“With strong conservative turnout, we will have a win next Tuesday, and I’ll hit the ground running, working with President Trump to lower the cost of living for hardworking Tennessee families,” he mentioned in an announcement.
Just final week, the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC pledged $1 million to help Behn, the tremendous PAC’s first spending on a special election this 12 months. Groups aligned with Trump’s political operation and House Republicans’ marketing campaign arm have spent cash on Van Epps’ behalf.
Party leaders together with Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin and former Vice President Kamala Harris have additionally made appearances in the district to help Behn, and progressive Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Texas video known as in to rally supporters at an occasion with Behn.
Behn informed NCS that Tennessee’s special election is one other likelihood to ship a nationwide message.
“If we get with a certain number of points or if we flip it, that it will signal to Washington Republicans that this agenda that they’ve been running on is not welcomed and is not favorable by most voters, especially in deep-red territory,” Behn mentioned.
While special election turnout tends to fall nicely wanting midterm turnout, turnout this 12 months has been comparatively excessive. The 4 special elections for US House averaged 57% of 2022 midterm turnout in the similar districts, larger than the 42% common for special elections between the 2022 midterms and 2024 presidential election.
The nationwide consideration appears to be driving pretty sturdy turnout in Tennessee to date: Through Monday, there have been over 63,000 ballots forged early in-person or by mail (about 35% of 2022’s complete turnout in the district). About two-thirds of ballots have been forged pre-election in 2024, and a little bit over half have been forged pre-election in the special major, in accordance to information from L2.
A robust efficiency on Tuesday by Behn would add to the rising proof of a Democratic benefit in voter motivation.
In NCS’s October ballot, simply 29% of Americans mentioned that they had a positive view of the Democratic Party and 55% had an unfavorable view, numerically the highest unfavorable score in NCS’s polling going again over 30 years. Over 1 / 4 of registered voters who’re Democrats or Democratic-leaning mentioned they’ve an unfavorable view of the social gathering, up from 13% a 12 months in the past.
Despite this lagging reputation, deep dissatisfaction with Trump seems to have engaged Democratic voters. More registered Democrats now say they’re extraordinarily motivated to vote than forward of the 2024 presidential elections.
Looking forward to 2026, Democratic-aligned voters overwhelmingly mentioned their votes for Congress can be about Trump: 79% mentioned their vote can be to ship a message that they oppose Trump, in contrast to simply 20% who say their vote wouldn’t be about Trump. Democratic-aligned voters who mentioned their vote can be to oppose Trump have been additionally extra seemingly to say that they’re extraordinarily motivated to vote subsequent 12 months.
Extremely motivated voters general mentioned they most well-liked Democratic over Republican candidates by a large margin, 59% to 37%, whereas much less motivated voters most well-liked Republican candidates 48% to 34%.
Since the begin of Trump’s first time period, Democrats have commonly over-performed in special elections as larger propensity voters – notably these with larger schooling ranges – have gravitated in direction of Democratic candidates. In that point, Democrats have outpaced prior Democratic margins as a rule.
Drawing conclusions from special elections might be difficult – special elections are comparatively rare and infrequently have low turnout, which may outcome in massive swings from larger turnout elections. Presidential and House outcomes might diverge inside a congressional district, so a candidate’s relative efficiency might seem to range relying on which baseline is used for comparability.
Still, Democratic outcomes in this 12 months’s special elections have been notably sturdy, extra intently resembling the special elections early in Trump’s first time period and stronger than people who occurred throughout the Biden presidency.
The common Democratic over-performance of 16 factors is in the line with outcomes from the first 12 months of Trump’s first time period, when Democrats beat their 2016 House margins by a mean of 17 factors.
Democrats have had larger turnout ranges in different statewide races this 12 months as nicely.
In April, greater than 2.3 million voters turned out in a Supreme Court election in Wisconsin, practically 90% of the votes forged in the state’s 2022 Senate race. Democratic-backed Judge Susan Crawford beat Harris’ 2024 margin in the state by practically 11 factors.
This development continued earlier this month in the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia and the special election for a Democratic-backed poll measure in California.
Over 3.3 million votes have been forged in New Jersey and three.4 million votes in Virginia, each barely larger than the variety of votes forged in every state’s 2018 Senate race, the final time there was a statewide race in a midterm 12 months in the two states. Turnout as a share of registered voters barely trailed the 2018 turnout in each contests (50% in New Jersey and 54% in Virginia, in contrast to 53% and 59% in 2018). Democrats Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger outpaced Harris by over 8 factors in New Jersey and over 9 factors in Virginia.
In California, a Democratic-backed poll measure handed by a margin of 29 factors, virtually 9 factors forward of Harris’ margin in the state. Over 11.5 million voters turned out in the race, greater than the 10.9 million voters in the 2022 gubernatorial election however barely behind the practically 12.5 million votes in the 2018 race.