POLITICO Playbook: Dem pollsters admit they blew it in 2020


After 2016, when nearly each ballot heading into Election Day had HILLARY CLINTON successful, Democratic pollsters vowed they might by no means enable themselves to be that incorrect once more.

Now, a gaggle of 5 main Democratic polling companies is making an attempt to clarify, as soon as and for all, why they blew it once more in 2020, predicting victories for the celebration up and down the poll that by no means materialized. As our polling guru Steve Shepard studies immediately, the competing companies — ALG Research, GBAO Strategies, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, Global Strategy Group and Normington Petts — banded collectively in an uncommon collaboration after the election to conduct a self-autopsy of kinds. It acknowledged “major errors” and a failure “to live up to our own expectations” — but, frustratingly, no simple answer to the issue of constantly overestimating how main Democratic candidates, together with JOE BIDEN, would carry out.

Among the culprits:

  • Deteriorating public belief in establishments, authorities, the information media and, sure, the polling business — pushed by DONALD TRUMP’S bashing of these very establishments. Essentially, Trump voters had been much less prepared to take part in polls.
  • Pollsters once more underestimated turnout amongst rural and white non-college-educated voters, who overwhelmingly backed Trump.
  • Failure to detect late motion towards Trump and Republican candidates in the run-up to the election.
  • Not precisely accounting for the very fact that Democrats stayed house and answered their telephones in better numbers final yr than Republicans who didn’t comply with Covid-19 restrictions as intently.

But IDing the issues was simpler than agreeing on fixes for subsequent time. Even earlier than Trump, the polling business had been struggling to adapt to the evaporation of house landlines and the relative reliability they supplied to survey takers. Trump has solely exacerbated the problem of measuring public sentiment when few individuals wish to reply the cellphone and plenty of actively mistrust pollsters.

“While there is evidence some of these theories played a part, no consensus on a solution has emerged. What we have settled on is the idea there is something systematically different about the people we reached, and the people we did not,” the memo reads.

Put in another way, as one of many collaborating pollsters instructed Steve, who acquired the news on the post-mortem: “2020 was an ‘Oh, s—‘ moment for all of us.”

Read the full story here. And read the memo here.

SENATE REPUBLICANS CALL FOR TRUMP-MCCONNELL TRUCE — Two days after Trump derided Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL as a “dumb son of a bitch,” Senate Republicans are calling on the 2 to make peace, as our Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine report. Even Sen. JOHN THUNE of South Dakota, McConnell’s No. 2 and no fan of Trump, says the duo wants to come back to some kind of understanding if they desire a shot at taking again the bulk — and if Trump needs to stay related in the celebration.

Trump, after all, isn’t having it. In a press release late Monday night time, he hit McConnell once more, accusing him of being too weak to battle what he referred to as the left’s court-packing effort. “He didn’t fight for the presidency, and he won’t fight for the court,” the assertion learn. (Everyone is aware of McConnell cares extra concerning the courts than just about any Republican in Washington — in all probability why Trump selected to make that individual dig.)

Here’s the issue for McConnell and a possible “truce”: Trump calls for loyalty and doesn’t give it in return. So despite the fact that it’s Trump taking potshots — not McConnell — peace would require McConnell to do what House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY and NRSC Chair RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) have completed in current days: grovel. Scott over the weekend awarded Trump some kind of “NRSC Champion for Freedom Award” to butter him up. But can McConnell actually abdomen doing one thing like that after Jan. 6?

So far, the reply is not any. On Monday, McConnell refused to answer Trump’s weekend putdown. At the identical time, if there’s one factor that motivates McConnell greater than something, it’s being majority chief. So maybe just a little ring-kissing will appear value it if it’s the value of taking again the Senate. Or not.

In the meantime, the drama between the 2 isn’t going away.

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BIDEN’S TUESDAY — The president will obtain the President’s Daily Brief at 9:30 a.m. Biden will go to the Capitol Rotunda to pay his respects to Capitol Police Officer WILLIAM EVANS at 11 a.m. Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS will meet with members of the Congressional Black Caucus at 2 p.m. in the Oval Office.

— Harris will maintain a roundtable on Black maternal well being alongside home coverage adviser SUSAN RICE at 12:30 p.m. At 4 p.m., Harris will go to the Capitol Rotunda to pay respects to Evans.

— Press secretary JEN PSAKI will temporary at 12:30 p.m.

THE SENATE will meet at midday to think about the nomination of POLLY TROTTENBERG to be deputy Transportation secretary earlier than recessing and returning for a vote at 2:15 p.m. IRS Commissioner CHARLES RETTIG will testify earlier than the Finance Committee at 10 a.m.

THE HOUSE will meet at 7 p.m., with first votes as early as 7:15 p.m.

CONGRESS

ABOUT THAT W.H. INFRASTRUCTURE MEETING Hill Republicans left an infrastructure assembly with Biden on Monday saying the president struck all the fitting notes on being open to compromise. But Rep. DAVID PRICE (D-N.C.) instructed us afterward that the principle impediment for a bipartisan deal — and it’s a big one — stays: the way to pay for it all.

During the assembly, Sen. ROGER WICKER of Mississippi, the rating Republican on the Commerce Committee, instructed Biden that elevating the company tax charge is a non-starter for a lot of Republicans who view their help for the 2017 Trump tax cuts as a legacy-defining vote. More on the meeting here from Sam Mintz

DOUBLE DARE YOU — “Democrats dare GOP to filibuster Asian American hate crimes bill,” by Nicholas Wu, Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett: “Democrats, for their part, are daring the 50-vote minority to block the modest legislation amid a spike in hate incidents against Asian Americans during the pandemic. While the GOP has yet to make a conference-wide decision, Wednesday’s vote could serve as a data point for Democratic senators seeking to persuade more of their colleagues to scrap the 60-vote threshold that has left some of President Joe Biden’s most progressive priorities to languish in the upper chamber.

“Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) said that Republicans are considering voting to open debate and offering amendments on the hate crimes measure. Some in the GOP may want ‘an opportunity to engage in a discussion about how to make it better, how to improve it,’ Thune said of the bill.”

BEWARE HANGRY HILL AIDES — “&pizza closes early in Rayburn after staffers eat all the pizza,” Roll Call: “Bubbling cheese had just returned to Congress, but &pizza quickly became ‘no pizza’ on Monday after a run on the restaurant. So great was the pent-up pizza demand inside the Rayburn House Office Building that the newly reopened shop was forced to close three hours early when ingredients got low.”

POLITICS ROUNDUP

DO NOT WHAT MCCONNELL SAYS — Per week after the Senate chief warned the enterprise group to “stay out of politics,” it seems to be doing something however. Major League Baseball took warmth over its choice to drag the All-Star Game out of Atlanta, but criticism of Republican efforts to enact stricter voting legal guidelines from enterprise leaders is spreading, according to the NYT: “With Republicans in Texas and other states continuing to advance restrictive election legislation, corporate chieftains around the country have stepped up their efforts in recent days to oppose such laws and defend voting rights.

“Two prominent Black executives are enlisting major corporations to sign a new statement opposing ‘discriminatory legislation,’ and PayPal and Twilio said Monday that they had agreed to add their names. BlackRock, the investment firm, was likely to sign the statement but had not yet committed, according to a person familiar with the situation. Other companies were also in discussion to sign on, two people familiar with the deliberations said.”

DEFIANT DESANTIS — “After YouTube pulls DeSantis video for mask fallacies, governor holds another COVID-19 talk with same docs,” South Florida Sun Sentinel: “After YouTube took down a video last week of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ coronavirus roundtable because of misinformation about mask-wearing, DeSantis doubled down Monday and invited those same panelists back to the state Capitol for more discussion.

“The move plays into DeSantis’ recent push to punish ‘big tech’ for censorship of conservatives, as well as continuing to cement DeSantis’ status as the top Republican advocate against anti-COVID-19 measures and a potential GOP nominee for president in 2024.”

TRUMP CARDS

WHY THE ROAD TO MAR-A-LAGO STILL MATTERS: as a result of Trump can pull in critical money for candidates. Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) raked in a cool half-million {dollars} at a fundraiser hosted by Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Friday. Last month, South Dakota Gov. KRISTI NOEM raised $300,000 at a fundraiser on the resort. Each haul was a private report for a single occasion, in accordance with their aides. “No matter what some in the party might say, President Trump remains key to any candidate’s success,” mentioned Paul adviser SERGIO GOR.

DEPT. OF REALITY ACKNOWLEDGMENT — “Haley says she’ll back Trump, stand down if he runs in 2024,” AP: “Former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, often mentioned as a possible 2024 GOP presidential contender, said Monday that she would not seek her party’s nomination if former President Donald Trump opts to run a second time. ‘Yes,’ Haley said, when asked if she would support a second bid by Trump, in whose Cabinet she served for the first half of his administration.”

WOOD TAKES HIS CONSPIRACY THEORIES ON THE ROAD — “Pro-Trump attorney Lin Wood makes chaotic appearance in Charleston ahead of SC GOP chair bid,” Post and Courier: “Chaos erupted at the Charleston County GOP meeting when attorney Lin Wood pushed conspiracy theories that Donald Trump won the 2020 election. It was part of Wood’s pitch to replace S.C. Republican Party Chairman Drew McKissick next month.”

DESSERT from The Daily Beast’s MOLLY JONG-FAST: “What Mika Brzezinski Did When She Read Trump’s ‘Bleeding Facelift’ Tweet”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

LATEST FROM MINNESOTA — “7 P.M. Curfews Go Into Effect For 2.5M In Twin Cities Metro Area After Daunte Wright Shooting Death,” CBS Minnesota … “Minnesota killing adds to the anger, and the stakes, as Chauvin trial nears its end,” WaPo

TOXIC TOWN — “‘Bond Girl’ Talk and Groping: Albany’s Toxic Culture for Women,” NYT: “The senator, Julia Salazar, who declined to identify her colleague, also recalled attending a fund-raiser just outside the Capitol in 2019 where another legislator’s staff member began commenting on her appearance. ‘He said, “You should be on a calendar,”’ recalled Ms. Salazar, who was 28 on the time. ‘I was so embarrassed that I left.’

“If encounters like these are unacceptable and potentially career-ending, especially in the #MeToo era, they are also a defining part of the culture of government in Albany, N.Y., and so endemic that they have continued even after sex scandals took down a governor (Eliot Spitzer) and several members of the State Assembly. Sexual misconduct in Albany has been thrown into sharp relief by allegations against Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo from multiple current and former aides who have accused him of sexual harassment and, in one case, groping during an encounter in the Executive Mansion.”

VOTING VETO — “How a Very Weird Quirk Might Let Michigan Republicans Limit Voting Rights,” NYT: “But unlike in other states with divided governments, Michigan’s Constitution offers Republicans a rarely used option for circumventing [Gov. Gretchen] Whitmer’s veto. Last month, the state’s Republican chairman told activists that he aimed to do just that — usher new voting restrictions into law using a voter-driven petition process that would bypass the governor’s veto pen.”

THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION

A RARE TRUMP HOLDOVER — “Biden keeping Trump’s pick for Moscow ambassador in place,” NCS: “The Biden administration recently decided to keep the Trump-appointed US ambassador on the job in Moscow for the foreseeable future, two senior administration officials told NCS, demonstrating a willingness to nurture areas of stability in the US-Russia relationship after it got off to a tumultuous start.

“John Sullivan has been on the job for almost a year and a half. He is viewed by administration officials as a steady hand as the administration ramps up the pressure on Russia for taking actions to undermine the US and democratic values broadly.”

ALSO … “Biden picks former New Jersey attorney general to lead DEA,” WaPo

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

BLOWING UP THE IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS? — “After Nuclear Site Blackout, Thunder From Iran, and Silence From U.S.,” NYT: “The operation raised the question of whether Israel was acting on its own to strike Iran and undermine American diplomacy as the Biden administration seeks to reconstitute a nuclear agreement. Or, alternatively, whether Israel was operating in concert with American interests, carrying out dirty work that would weaken Iran’s negotiating position in the talks.

“The White House was saying almost nothing in public on Monday about the apparent explosion inside Iran’s Natanz facility, below more than 20 feet of reinforced concrete, which destroyed the power supply that keeps the centrifuges spinning at supersonic speeds, enriching uranium. … White House and State Department officials said they had no idea whether the Iranians would show up in Vienna again on Wednesday, when the talks were scheduled to resume.”

NOW HERE’S A TRANSITION FOR YOU — “Redfield Joins Big Ass Fans, Promoter of Controversial COVID-Killing Technology,” Daily Beast: “Dr. Robert Redfield, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has joined Big Ass Fans, lending his scientific credibility to a company division that says its ion-generating technology kills the coronavirus. The company charges $9,450 for a fan with technology that academic air quality experts question.

“Academic indoor air quality experts who criticize certain claims about COVID-killing technology say the industry-funded studies often focus on results of tests run in a space ranging in size from a shoebox to a cabinet that do not reflect the conditions in a large room. Studies backed by the industry rarely make it clear whether the touted ‘virus-killing’ ions or molecules are doing the work, experts say, or if improvements come from a fan or filter on a device.”

MEDIAWATCH — “Reuters names Alessandra Galloni as its next editor-in-chief,” Reuters

— Allison Harris is becoming a member of NewsNation as a correspondent in D.C. targeted on the White House. She beforehand was a reporter for KDFW-TV FOX 4 Dallas-Fort Worth.

STANDING BY TUCKER — “Fox has no problem with Tucker Carlson’s ‘replacement theory’ remarks, says Lachlan Murdoch,” NCS: “Fox Corporation chief executive Lachlan Murdoch dismissed the Anti-Defamation League’s demand that the company fire host Tucker Carlson, telling the organization in a letter that his company saw no problem with comments Carlson made about the racist ‘great replacement’ theory. …

“‘Concerning the segment of “Tucker Carlson Tonight” on April eighth, nevertheless, we respectfully disagree,’ Murdoch continued in the letter, which the ADL supplied NCS. ‘A full review of the guest interview indicates that Mr. Carlson decried and rejected replacement theory. As Mr. Carlson himself stated during the guest interview: “White replacement theory? No, no, this is a voting rights question.”’ In a letter of its personal, the ADL responded Monday to Murdoch.”

STAFFING UP — The Interior Department introduced a slate of latest members of its management: Heather Barmore shall be director of digital technique, Liz Klein shall be senior counselor to the secretary, Giovanni Rocco shall be deputy press secretary, Felicia Salazar shall be speechwriter, and Raina Thiele shall be senior adviser for Alaska affairs and strategic priorities. Announcement

TRANSITIONS — Jeff Lowenstein shall be workers director for the House Intelligence Committee. He beforehand was chief of workers for Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). Patrick Boland will take over as COS for Schiff and beforehand was comms director for the House Intelligence Committee. … Lauren Evette Williams is now comms director for the House Oversight Coronavirus Crisis Subcommittee. She most not too long ago was an SVP at Burson Cohn and Wolfe and is a Marcia Fudge alum. …

Chris Mewett is now legislative director for Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). He beforehand was nationwide safety adviser for Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and is a Defense Department alum. … Michael Frazier is now EVP and chief enterprise officer at FARE. He beforehand was EVP and deputy director for exterior affairs on the 9/11 Memorial & Museum. … Taylor Sholler is now senior director of presidency affairs at Lam Research. He most not too long ago was director of presidency affairs at Applied Materials and is a U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Judd Gregg alum.

REBRAND: Lobby store Peck Madigan Jones has modified its title to Tiber Creek Group in a nod to its rising, bipartisan group and the Tiber Creek that stretches from Capitol Hill to the Washington Monument.

ENGAGED — Corey McCray, of Chevron authorities affairs, proposed to Kristyn Royster, U.S. Chamber of Commerce PAC director, over the weekend at their favourite spot on Fripp Island, S.C. They met via a mutual good friend in 2017. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) … Reps. Jim Costa (D-Calif.) and Marie Newman (D-Ill.) … Celinda LakeWill Davis of the OECD Washington Center … Doug CouttsBrian Bartlett of Rational 360 … Taylor Gross of the Herald Group … POLITICO’s Jack Smith … NCS’s Nathaniel Meyersohn … Edelman’s Sujata Mitra and Kate MeissnerMaggie Feldman-Piltch … Amazon’s Justin Snow … C-SPAN’s Jeremy Art, an enormous Nationals fan … Alex Yost … E&E News’ Amy Carlile, Colleen Luccioli and Jeff TomichJohn Barsa … former Reps. Susan Davis (D-Calif.) and Ted Yoho (R-Fla.) … Engage’s Nick Schaper Sally Larson … Ford’s Brad Carroll and Rachel McCleery Kasey O’Brien of Middle Seat Digital … NBC’s Justice Gilpin-GreenJonah CunninghamAmy Goodman … WaPo’s Lateshia Beachum … Morning Consult’s Jeff Cartwright … SKDKnickerbocker’s Mia MotleySteve AyscueDean HingsonEmily LoebDeena TausterErin Dunne … Bloomberg’s Ayanna AlexanderJanet Ritz … Mercury’s John GallagherKarriem Holman of kPolitics … former Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R-Colo.) … Geoff EmblerKevin Warsh

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