Last November, Donald Trump gained a return to the White House amid broad nationwide dissatisfaction with the state of the nation. A yr later, preliminary NCS exit polling finds, the primary main electoral checks of the second Trump presidency happen with voters expressing comparable pessimism and anti-incumbent sentiments regardless of the turnover in the Oval Office.
Across 4 carefully watched contests — the governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey, the mayoral race in New York City and the redistricting-related Proposition 50 in California — majorities disapprove of Trump, with robust disapproval of his efficiency far outpacing robust approval. In Virginia, New Jersey and California, roughly half or extra of the voters sees their vote as sending a message to Trump. And that message is basically certainly one of opposition, moderately than assist.
At the identical time, whereas all these locations voted Democratic in final yr’s presidential election, none at the moment give particularly optimistic opinions to the Democratic Party. The celebration’s favorability score hovers across the 50% mark in California and New York City — although the GOP is much more unpopular in these locations. In New Jersey and Virginia, in the meantime, voters give roughly equal rankings to the Democratic Party and the Republican Party.
Views of the economy aren’t uniform. Most Virginia voters say that their state’s economy is superb or good, at the same time as a majority say that federal authorities cuts this yr have had at the very least a minor impact on their household’s funds. Majorities in California, New York City and New Jersey, in contrast, name their state’s financial situations not so good or poor. In every place, financial points — taxes, price of residing, or the economy as an entire — dominate voters’ concern.
NCS Exit Polls are from the Voter Poll performed by SSRS, which mixes hundreds of pre-election interviews with these performed at polling locations to mirror the opinions of the complete voters. That scope makes them a robust device for understanding the demographic profile and political opinions of voters in this yr’s election. And their findings will finally be weighted towards the final word benchmark: the outcomes of the elections themselves. Even so, exit polls are nonetheless polls, with margins for error — which implies they’re most helpful when handled as estimates, moderately than exact measurements. That’s significantly true for the earliest numbers, which haven’t but been adjusted to match remaining election outcomes. Learn extra about how this yr’s surveys had been performed here.
Here’s a have a look at a few of the dynamics shaping up in every key race:
In Virginia, the voters turning out to decide on between Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears for governor are none too comfortable with the state of the nation. More than 6 in 10 say they’re dissatisfied with or offended about the way in which issues are going in the nation right this moment.
Roughly one-fifth of voters in the state say that somebody in their family was employed this yr by the federal authorities, or labored as a federal contractor, and most say they’ve been financially affected by latest federal cuts — though solely about 20% say these have had quite a lot of impact on them. At the identical time, Glenn Youngkin, the state’s outgoing Republican governor, will get majority approval, and most voters say their household is financially holding regular or getting forward.
Just over half of voters in the state say that the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have gone too far, with an analogous share saying that society’s assist for transgender rights has gone too far. And 61% say abortion ought to be authorized in most or all instances.
Overall, views of Spanberger are modestly extra optimistic than views of Earle-Sears. Roughly 8 in 10 voters say that they’re casting a poll for their candidate, not towards her opponent — and that’s roughly constant for supporters of each candidates.
What’s driving voters? The plurality of Earle-Sears’ supporters say that it was most necessary to again a candidate who shared their values, and decide the economy and immigration as their high issues in the state. Spanberger’s supporters are extra divided on what candidate attribute issues most, however they’re clear in selecting the economy because the state’s high difficulty, with well being care rating second. Relatively few voters on both aspect name training or crime their high difficulty.
New Jersey’s gubernatorial race, between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, takes place in the shadow of two unpopular incumbents: Trump is disliked by voters, however the state’s outgoing Democratic governor, Phil Murphy, additionally sees an approval score that’s barely underwater.
The lion’s share of Ciattarelli’s supporters — roughly half — say it was most necessary to them to choose the candidate who’ll convey wanted change, whereas Sherrill voters largely say they had been in search of a candidate who’s trustworthy or reliable, will work for individuals like them, or shares their values. Sherrill’s favorability score is modestly greater than Ciatarrelli’s, and greater than half say her marketing campaign towards him was largely honest, whereas voters are cut up on the equity of Ciattarelli’s marketing campaign. But Ciattarelli’s supporters are a bit likelier than Sherrill’s to say that their vote was largely for his or her chosen candidate, moderately than out of opposition to their rival.
Voters name taxes and the economy the highest points dealing with the state, outpacing immigration, crime or well being care. Roughly 7 in 10 voters say that property tax charges are a serious drawback the place they dwell, and about 6 in 10 say the identical of electrical energy prices. More than half additionally name political corruption in the state a serious drawback.
New York City’s multi-candidate mayoral race sees large variations between the bases of assist for Democrat Zohran Mamdani, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, operating as an unbiased, and Republican Curtis Sliwa. Nearly 90% of Mamdani’s supporters say their vote is to assist him, moderately than to oppose his rivals. Sliwa’s voters additionally see their poll as a press release of assist. By distinction, Cuomo’s voters are carefully cut up between voting to assist him and voting to oppose the opposite candidates.
Mamdani voters overwhelmingly name price of residing their high difficulty, whereas Cuomo voters are divided between price of residing and crime, and Sliwa voters largely see crime as town’s greatest drawback. And most of Mamdani’s supporters say it was most necessary both that their candidate would convey wanted change, or that their candidate would work for individuals like them. Cuomo’s supporters broadly say they had been in search of the candidate with the appropriate expertise, whereas Sliwa’s backers say they wished both an trustworthy and reliable candidate, or one who would work for individuals like them.
Although most voters say they’re holding regular or getting forward financially, almost 60% name price of residing town’s most necessary difficulty. And greater than 7 in 10 say the price of housing the place they dwell is a serious drawback, in comparison with about one-third who say crime is a serious drawback. About 4 in 10 name the candidates’ positions on Israel a significant component in their vote.
Roughly 1 in 6 voters say they’re casting their poll in a mayoral election for the primary time.
Voters in California are weighing a measure with nationwide implications: Proposition 50, a poll measure to quickly enact a brand new congressional map drawn by Democrats in response to Republican-driven redistricting in different states. Roughly 7 in 10 say it’s essential to them which celebration controls Congress.
An overwhelming majority of voters say they’d typically desire state congressional district traces to be drawn by a non-partisan fee than the celebration in energy. But these voting “yes” on the measure additionally broadly see it as a response to GOP-led redistricting elsewhere: round 80% say they see it as a approach to counter the modifications made by Republicans in different states, moderately than the easiest way of drawing congressional districts.
Overall, about half of California voters say that neither celebration is dealing with the redrawing of congressional district traces pretty, with the remaining extra more likely to say that solely the Democrats are taking a good strategy than that solely the Republicans are.
Around three-quarters of California voters say they’re dissatisfied with or offended about the way in which issues are going in the U.S., and about half say they view their vote as a approach to oppose Trump. Roughly 6 in 10 say that the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have gone too far, and most say the governor mustn’t cooperate with the Trump administration on its efforts. A majority additionally oppose the thought of the federal authorities sending the National Guard into main cities in California.
More than 80% say that the price of residing in their space is unaffordable, and the economy far outpaces immigration, well being care, crime or local weather change as the highest difficulty dealing with the state.
The NCS Voter Poll performed by SSRS was performed from October twenty second -November 4th, and consists of consultant samples of voters in California, New Jersey and New York City. The Voter Poll combines knowledge collected from verified registered voters on-line and by phone, with knowledge collected in-person from Election Day voters at 30 precincts every in Virginia and New York City and from 29 precincts in New Jersey. Respondents might full the ballot in English or Spanish. The general margin of sampling error for voters, accounting for design results, is predicted to be roughly plus or minus 2.0 proportion factors in California, 2.1 proportion factors in New Jersey, 2.2 proportion factors in New York City, and a couple of.1 proportion factors in Virginia.