Ecuadorean President Daniel Noboa has had fairly a month, surviving not one, not two, however three alleged assassination makes an attempt – the most recent of which apparently concerned presents of jam and chocolate laced with toxic chemical compounds.
The president made the declare to NCS’s Fernando del Rincon on Thursday, saying the presents had contained “very high concentrations” of three chemical compounds, “and it was practically impossible for these to be present together at those levels” – except the presents had been spiked.
That comes simply weeks after one other alleged assassination attempt when a crowd throwing rocks surrounded Noboa’s automotive as he traveled to an engagement in Cañar province. Bullet marks have been later discovered on the car, in accordance with vitality minister Ines Manzano, whereas days earlier, in accordance with Noboa, one other crowd threw Molotov cocktails and selfmade rockets at his car.
While some critics are skeptical of the claims amid a scarcity of publicly obtainable proof – suggesting as an alternative that they’re meant to distract from rising public discontent and protests towards Noboa’s authorities – the president insisted to NCS the risk was actual.
“It wasn’t just sticks and stones. There were homemade rockets, Molotov cocktails, projectiles that could still kill you … and from high above, they threw rocks at the windshield and hood of the car,” Noboa stated.
“If one of these homemade rockets hits you in the chest or head it would kill you.”
What isn’t in dispute is that this: the Ecuadorian president is just not in need of enemies.
Noboa, the 37-year-old inheritor to a banana empire and one in every of Ecuador’s largest fortunes, gained his first full time period in workplace this 12 months on a promise to crush the “narcoterrorists” who turned his nation from a beacon of peace to the house of Latin America’s highest murder charges.
Since then, he has leaned into the strongman method and tough-on-crime agenda that made him so widespread with voters in his first time period, bringing him into the sights of highly effective felony teams.
But it’s not simply these felony networks who’ve turned towards Noboa. With murder charges rising as soon as once more and rising discontent over financial points akin to the worth of diesel, Noboa is seeing his as soon as outstanding approval scores take a battering. In February 2024, 81% of Ecuadorians accredited of him, in accordance with local polling firm Cedatos. That determine has since declined to round 50%.
In Ecuador, the place presidents are typically “very, very unpopular,” in accordance with Laura Lizarazo, lead Ecuador analyst at consulting agency Control Risks, that’s nonetheless a substantial stage of help, however Noboa is going through growing resistance from indigenous teams and civil society advocates over his unilateral choices and makes an attempt to strengthen his government authority.
Particularly unpopular, particularly amongst rural, Indigenous Ecuadorans, has been his canceling of a diesel subsidy – a transfer that has sparked widespread demonstrations – although he has additionally come beneath hearth for subsuming Ecuador’s environmental watchdog into the ministry of mining, which critics worry will undermine regulation, and for his assaults on the judiciary when it dominated towards a number of safety measures, together with blanket immunity for law enforcement.
“He has taken some very polarizing policy decisions that have not been well received by the public, and one example of that is precisely this latest wave of protests (over the diesel subsidies),” Lizarazo stated.
During the protests, Noboa declared states of emergency in quite a few provinces. The motion subsided after Noboa threatened to ship in the navy to interrupt protesters’ roadblocks. The president later agreed to decrease the worth of diesel in two installments in December and February.
Meanwhile, there are even indicators of pressure concerning the ‘tough on crime’ message that when made Noboa so widespread.
Recently, violence in Ecuador has taken a dramatic flip. After a quick respite final 12 months, homicides rose 40% in the primary seven months of 2025, whereas final week explosions from automotive bombs rocked Guayaquil and killed one particular person. And in September, there have been two back-to-back prison massacres.
All this comes regardless of Noboa’s high-profile deployment of military models into Ecuador’s prisons and metropolis streets, in addition to the seize of its most-wanted felony over the summer season.
In his interview with NCS, Noboa acknowledged the worsening murder statistics, however pushed again by claiming {that a} better proportion of the killings concerned criminal-on-criminal violence.
“The numbers are similar to 2023,” Noboa stated, “The difference is that in 2023, six out of 10 (of those killed) had a criminal record. Today, nine out of 10 deaths have a criminal record. They are killing each other.”
Some critics query whether or not Noboa’s hardline method is making issues worse.
Noboa “thinks that using the army is the best solution to counter drugs,” stated John Paul Pinto, a political analyst based mostly in Quito, Ecuador. “And what we’re seeing here in Ecuador is that that’s a bad strategy. It’s a very bad strategy. It’s not working.”
“Security is not only about the army, police, intelligence,” Pinto stated. “Security is about (solving) economic problems, social problems, the participation of the private sector.”
Also controversial has been Noboa’s plan to revise Ecuador’s structure to permit international militaries to occupy bases in Ecuador – a plan that might be topic to a referendum subsequent month.
Noboa seems so assured that voters will agree with him that his administration has even drawn up plans for a US Navy base on Ecuador’s coast.
In the meantime, he has brazenly courted US President Donald Trump, spontaneously praising him on social media this week to declare that “Ecuador stands firm in the global fight against drug trafficking” – whilst different nations in the area voice concern over US strikes towards alleged drug traffickers in the Caribbean and Pacific.
Noboa informed NCS he helps the battle towards drug trafficking, “which affects the entire society,” and stated Ecuador had already submitted a proper request to conduct joint operations with US forces.
Lizarazo stated the current wave of violence in Ecuador was not more likely to change Noboa’s hardline method – reasonably, he would double down.
“For Noboa’s administration, those events are not a signal of a failed security strategy, but rather an argument for advancing more aggressive measures against organized criminal groups,” Lizarazo stated. “That is key to the government’s identity, that security discourse and that strongman image and those hardline policies.”
Noboa’s picture has lengthy been key to his energy, analysts say. He’s younger, social media-savvy and desirous to take part in the politics of spectacle.
“He’s kind of an atypical leader for Ecuador,” Lizarazo stated, “whose popularity and governing strategy is based on his image, his discourse, rather than a clear, evidence-based, comprehensive state strategy to address the key issues of the several crises the country is facing.”
Pinto pointed to Noboa’s fight with the country’s constitutional court over safety measures earlier this 12 months.
After the court docket suspended a number of of Noboa’s safety insurance policies, together with immunity for regulation enforcement, Noboa personally led a march by means of the streets of Quito. Along the parade route, billboards confirmed footage of the justices, their faces framed by a red-letter message saying: “These are the judges stealing our peace.”
“We are not going to permit change to be halted because of nine people who don’t even show their face,” Noboa informed demonstrators in a speech the subsequent day.
Critics warned the transfer may put the justices in hazard, however it’s hardly the one time he has proven a willingness to flout institutional norms.
Lizarazo famous how he had induced a diplomatic disaster in April 2024 by ordering safety forces to storm the Mexican embassy to arrest a former vice chairman needed on corruption prices who was looking for political asylum.
“He has clear authoritarian traits and tendencies that will very likely persist over the rest of his administration,” Lizarazo predicted. “He will continue testing institutional boundaries on executive power, and he will continue attempting to expand those executive powers to implement his strongman, hardline security agenda.”
As for the referendum, Lizarazo stated it was a “polarizing question, but Noboa has the state apparatus and communication platforms in his favor.”
For his half, Noboa informed NCS he intends to respect the outcomes of the referendum regardless of the end result – however he’s assured Ecuador sees issues the way in which he does.
“I’m convinced that people want real change,” Noboa stated.